We look ahead to Saturday’s Premier League clash at Hill Dickinson Stadium with our Everton vs Arsenal prediction and preview, as the Gunners aim to claim top spot at Christmas.
Everton vs Arsenal: The Key Stats
Arsenal secured maximum points against Everton in 60.4% of pre-match simulations by the Opta supercomputer.
Kicking off with a more modest 19% chance of success in this encounter, Everton are winless in their last five league meetings with Arsenal (D2 L3), having won four of the previous five.
Victory for Arsenal will see them top the table at Christmas for a third time in four years, after doing so just twice in the first 30 Premier League seasons.
After resuming normal service with back-to-back wins, Arsenal are set to visit Everton for a festive Saturday night showdown.
There was more relief than exultation following the Gunners’ late 2-1 win over Wolves last weekend, as they eventually scraped past opponents who are still without a Premier League victory this season.
Struggling to break down a team that dropped anchor and defended deep, Mikel Arteta’s men failed to muster a shot on target in the first half – their first such failure at the Emirates since December 2024.
Nonetheless, two own goals in the second half sealed victory and kept them clear at the top, two points above closest rivals Manchester City and three in front of surprise challengers Aston Villa. So, another win on Saturday will wrap up first place for Christmas – even if City beat West Ham a few hours earlier.
Premier League Table After MD16 2025-26
It would be just the fifth time – but a third in four years – that Arsenal have led the way on Christmas Day, though that feat has proved no guarantee of success. The Gunners have gone on to finish either second (2002-03, 2022-23, 2023-24) or third (2007-08) on the four previous occasions they’ve topped the charts on 25 December.
After three straight seasons as runners-up, Arteta knows that 2026 must be the year to deliver. In Arsenal’s final away game of 2025, he won’t expect any gifts from a former club after serving six years at Everton as a player.
Both of last season’s meetings ended level, but the sides last drew three in a row between November 2012 and December 2013, when Arteta had just swapped the blue half of Merseyside for the red half of north London.
Such has been his longevity, current Toffees boss David Moyes was in charge of Everton for the start of that run; more than a decade on, he will now go toe-to-toe with one of his former players.
Moyes’ second spell has brought belief back to the club, and his team even sparked talk of a European push by winning four out of five matches before last week’s trip to Chelsea.
However, they were then met with a cold dose of reality. Tamely beaten 2-0 at Stamford Bridge, there were signs that a thin squad may not be ready to sustain such ambitions.
Everton have now lost eight of the last 10 Premier League games in which they’ve conceded first, and an extension of that trend would surely kill any hopes of continental qualification.
Having also lost all five meetings with teams playing in the UEFA Champions League this season – including both of their home defeats (3-0 vs Tottenham and 4-1 vs Newcastle) – they’ll be keen to avoid falling behind against Arsenal.
Still, not every aspect of recent history weighs in the visitors’ favour, as they’ve won just one of seven away games against Everton since Arsène Wenger left in 2018 (D2 L4).
Including recent mishaps against Wolves and Villa, there is some suggestion that Arsenal grow more vulnerable as the final whistle approaches. Despite conceding the fewest Premier League goals (10) this season, no team has shipped a higher share during the final 10 minutes (40%).
Given they have also conceded first in five of their last seven Premier League away games – including each of the last three – there are some grounds for hope for the Everton faithful.
The home side’s depth will be tested, though, as Idrissa Gueye and Iliman Ndiaye have both left for the Africa Cup of Nations, while Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall came off injured in the first half of the defeat to Chelsea with a hamstring injury. The latter is Everton’s most productive player, with four goals and two assists, highlighting how much his absence could hurt.
Of course, Arsenal have their own injury woes to contend with – albeit with a stronger supporting cast to fall back on.
Just returned from a long lay-off, Ben White sustained another injury last week; Gabriel Magalhaes and Cristhian Mosquera were already sidelined, and Kai Havertz is still on the road to recovery.
In the latter’s absence, Leandro Trossard has become an integral piece of Arteta’s attacking puzzle, whether from the start or as a deluxe substitute.
Notably, the Belgian has been involved in nine goals across his last nine Premier League away games, including each of the last four. The last Arsenal player to reach five in a row was Bukayo Saka between December 2023 and March 2024.
Trossard has also scored both of Arsenal’s away goals against Everton in the past two seasons, and could match Ian Wright’s run of three from August 1995 to September 1997 by finding the net again.
Everton vs Arsenal Head-to-Head
The last Premier League meeting – played at Goodison Park in April – ended 1-1, with Trossard’s opener being cancelled out by Ndiaye’s second-half penalty.
Arsenal have held the edge over Everton of late, going unbeaten in five top-flight meetings since a 1-0 away defeat in February 2023.
During that period, the Gunners have outscored the Toffees by eight goals to two, though both of last term’s contests ended level.
Everton vs Arsenal Prediction
The Opta supercomputer expects Arsenal to extend their unbeaten streak against Everton. In fact, the visitors are strong favourites to prevail, with a 60.4% chance of taking maximum points.
While the hosts have just a 19% chance of success, there’s also a 20.6% probability of the spoils being shared on Saturday.
Everton vs Arsenal Prediction December 2025
Everton vs Arsenal Predicted Lineups
Everton: Jordan Pickford, Jake O’Brien, James Tarkowski, Michael Keane, Vitalii Mykolenko, Tim Iroegbunam, James Garner, Jack Grealish, Charly Alcaraz, Dwight McNeil, Thierno Barry.
Head Coach: David Moyes
Arsenal: David Raya, Jurriën Timber, William Saliba, Piero Hincapié, Myles Lewis-Skelly, Martín Zubimendi, Declan Rice, Eberechi Eze, Bukayo Saka, Gabriel Martinelli, Viktor Gyökeres.
Head Coach: Mikel Arteta
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 15,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend on Merseyside, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Premier League Stats Opta
Subscribe to our football newsletter to receive exclusive weekly content. You should also follow our social accounts over onX, Instagram, TikTok and Facebook.******