Minnesota Timberwolves second-year guard Rob Dillingham was an electric scorer and facilitator at the prep and collegiate level. Despite being a highly touted recruit, Dillingham had to earn acclaim as an NBA prospect after one year at Kentucky.
Scouts knew what Dillingham was capable of offensively. However, in an NBA landscape that continues to value size, Dillingham’s core concerns were whether he could make up for his small stature and hold his own on defense.
Small guards can still succeed in the NBA. The margins are smaller, but there are still very few active players with comparable size and weight measurements similar to Dillingham’s. Most small guards that can survive in today’s NBA have much more weight/width than Dillingham. A stockier build is much more projectable than Dillingham’s wiry frame.
At the 2024 NBA Draft combine, Dillingham measured 6’1” without shoes, 164.2 lbs, with a 6’3” wingspan. Trae Young and Monte Morris are the only current NBA players who have similar measurements on anthropometric comparison models.
Historical anthropometric comparisons are important when assessing a prospect’s NBA counterparts. It is never a one-to-one comparison, but it can showcase how a player could look at the next level.
Young was a high-ceiling outcome comparison for Dillingham. Young has been able to parlay his historic freshman season at Oklahoma into four All-Star appearances and one Third-Team All-NBA selection.
However, even with his accolades, people have always questioned whether Young can drive winning in the NBA. A key topic that has put him at the forefront of trade dialogue for the last couple of seasons. Young’s offensive output is undeniable, but his poor defense has been enough to make it difficult to gauge his value throughout his seven seasons in the NBA.
Morris can serve as a more realistic comparison to Dillingham, given how Dillingham’s career has started. Morris is not as dynamic as Dillingham, but he thrived as a pass-first option, limiting his mistakes. Morris was a capable three-point shooter who, over the rest of his career, bulked up physically to compensate for his lack of height.
The most fascinating part of Dillingham’s early career is how different he has been in comparison to his pre-draft expectations. Dillingham has translated his passing ability. However, somehow, his defensive playmaking has been more effective than his scoring acumen.
According to advanced data from nbarapm.com, Dillingham ranks:
91st percentile in steals per 100 possessions
84th percentile in STOP% (Steals + Offensive fouls drawn + Blocks [recovered by the defense] per 100 possessions)
86th percentile in rFTOV (Forced turnovers per 100 possessions relative to league average (Steals + Offensive fouls drawn)
91st percentile in deflections per 100 possessions
The advanced metric has matched the eye test, with Dillingham finding his groove defensively.
Dillingham can mitigate his defensive flaws by using his quickness and speed to disrupt possessions, zip around opponents to front their post positioning, or poke free entry passes that attempt to exploit his size.
The No. 1 way for opponents to exploit Dillingham is to make him defend in space against larger offensive threats.
Opponents actively hunt Dillingham on screen switches to force him to guard up, taking him away from the corner shooter, chaser, role the Timberwolves place him in. Opponents also look to capitalize on his positioning in transition and find the best option to exploit it.
Additionally, Dillingham’s lack of weight forces him to take longer routes around screens, making him a poor screen navigator.
Dillingham’s results have been mixed. He has done a good job contesting shots, but even when he plays great defense, his shot-contest ability at 6’1” and 6’3” wingspan is not going to be as effective. Dillingham’s 175 lbs. frame also limits his ability to stop his opponents from getting paint touches.
Other times, Dillingham’s matchup has dominated him, and he hasn’t held a chance.
Ultimately, Dillingham will not be a great defender in the NBA. However, any way he can find a niche to raise his floor and avoid being a defensive black hole will be valuable to Minnesota’s defense overall.
It all comes down to mitigating the negatives. If Dillingham can avoid being as volatile and continue to weaponize his athletic traits to at least hold his own defensively, the franchise will be more likely to be patient with his development pathway. It has been a tumultuous start to Dillingham’s career, but he turns just 21 at the beginning of January.
Dillingham’s defense is a tough read because he is in such a unique situation.
He has already grown so much as a defender in a little over one season in the NBA, and he has not had nearly enough reps on the court to show for it. There have been small strides, and they have not come where we all expect Dillingham to shine as a prospect.
Although the effort he has made to take more pride in his defense, pester opponents using his athletic tools, and do whatever it takes to earn Chris Finch’s trust as a young player has been impressive.