Trae Young is making his long-awaited return against the Charlotte Hornets tonight.
Young has missed the last 22 games to a right MCL sprain in a late October match against the Brooklyn Nets. While the Hawks went on an impressive 13-9 run with Young out, this oversells their inconsistent level of play.
His absence has allowed the Hawks to soar to new heights on defense, hovering around the seventh place in defensive rating throughout this stretch. However, their poor defensive rebounding as a squad made their improvement on this end irrelevant. Atlanta predictably struggled without its star point guard, despite breakout performances from Jalen Johnson, Nickeil Alexander-Walker (who Young recruited), and Onyeka Okongwu.
The team's relative success without Young helped evaluate the non-Young team, but Young is necessary for this team to compete. Now, Hawks fans will get to see just what this team can be.
Young will lead a surge up the standings, but that might not be enough
The Hawks currently sit at seventh in the East with a 15-12 record (13-9 without Young), and are just half a game back from the fourth-seeded Boston Celtics. Realistically, if Young’s return adds any value to the team, Atlanta should see an outsized leap up the standings.
The question all Hawks fans are wondering, however, is how will Young reintegrate himself into the Hawks squad? While the Young-less squad was never going to be competitive against the elite teams of the NBA, they found a fun transition-based identity that can be applied even with Young on the floor. The team also had a stout defensive identity. Can they maintain their effectiveness while adding Young, a potential liability, to the rotation?
Young will help the Hawks, but just how much he helps will determine whether he gets paid this offseason. Young has a player option for next season valued at $49.0 million. While it was widely expected that Young would decline this option heading into the season, many teams now predict he will pick up this option.
If he cannot improve his perceived value upon his return, he will be forced to take the player option and prove he is worth another max contract. Teams around the league are starting to view Young as a negative-value asset with his limited playoff production, high salary, and defensive weakness. While this is likely an overreaction, the truth is that Young’s stock has dropped through no fault of his own.
Will Young lead the Hawks to playoff glory and get paid? If so, he could become the greatest player in franchise history. If not, he could walk and merely become this decade’s Al Horford.