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Newcastle vs Chelsea predictions: Why stalemate seems likely to end Blues’St James’Park misery

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Both sides enjoyed success in midweek after progressing to the semi-finals of the Carabao Cup.

Chelsea flirted with a shock upset at the hands of League One leaders Cardiff but hit back to win 3-1 after the hosts had equalised with 15 minutes left.

A day later, holders Newcastle scored a stoppage-time winner through Lewis Miley to keep their grip on the trophy via a 2-1 win over Fulham.

That was a much-needed result for Eddie Howe after their limp display in the 1-0 derby defeat at Sunderland last weekend.

The semi-final draw kept the two apart – Newcastle play Manchester City while Chelsea take on either Crystal Palace or Arsenal – but now attention turns back to the Premier League.

Fourth-placed Chelsea have just as many away points (14) as they do at Stamford Bridge but Newcastle’s results are heavily lopsided.

They’ve taken just seven out of 24 on the road but St James’ Park has been a fortress. Only the top three have picked up more home wins than Newcastle this term.

How to watch Newcastle v Chelsea

Newcastle v Chelsea kicks off at 12.30 GMT on Saturday, December 20 at St James’ Park.

The game will be shown live on TNT Sports 1, with coverage starting from 12pm.

TalkSPORT will provide full match commentary.

Newcastle team news

Dan Burn is a big loss to Newcastle in defence and the giant stopper will be out for four to six weeks after suffering a rib/lung injury against Sunderland.

Emil Krafth, Sven Botman and Kieran Trippier won’t be available for a few more weeks yet so the Magpies don’t need any further injuries at the back, especially with Tino Livramento now sidelined for a few weeks.

After getting his first Newcastle goal, Yoane Wissa will be hoping to start again but Nick Woltemade, whose own goal led to derby defeat at Sunderland, is likely to be recalled.

Goalkeeper Nick Pope is pushing for a return but Aaron Ramsdale has proven a capable deputy and may get the nod again.

Newcastle expected line-up

(4-3-3) Ramsdale; Miley, Schar, Thiaw, Hall; Tonali, Guimaraes, Joelinton; Murphy, Woltemade, Barnes.

Chelsea team news

Cole Palmer’s return from injury gives Chelsea a new dimension. He sat out the Cardiff game but played 58 minutes after starting against Bournemouth and Everton, scoring the opening goal against the Toffees.

Teenage star Estevao Willian wasn’t in the squad for the win at Cardiff due to a muscle problem and boss Enzo Maresca has confirmed he won’t make the trip to Newcastle either.

Chelsea have no end of forward options, though, and the treatment table at Stamford Bridge is looking fairly light as the Blues try and close the gap on the top three.

They’re currently eight behind leaders Arsenal and five back from third-placed Aston Villa.

Chelsea expected line-up

(4-2-3-1) Sanchez; Cucurella, Chalobah, Fofana, Gusto; Caicedo, James; Garnacho, Neto, Palmer; Pedro.

Newcastle v Chelsea stats

– Newcastle have won their last three Premier League home games against Chelsea, last winning more consecutively against them at St James’ Park between 1994 and 1998 (4).

– Chelsea lost 2-0 at Newcastle in their last Premier League game against them but haven’t failed to score in consecutive league meetings with the Magpies since February 1933.

– 37 of the 60 Premier League games between Newcastle and Chelsea have been won by the home side, the most home wins of any fixture in the competition’s history.

– Newcastle have conceded in each of their last nine Premier League games. They’ve never gone 10 in a row without a clean sheet under Eddie Howe before.

– Newcastle are averaging 12.2 shots per game and 4.31 shots on target per game in the Premier League this season, both their lowest averages in a single campaign under Eddie Howe.

– Chelsea have kept four clean sheets in their last five away Premier League matches, losing 3-1 to Leeds United at Elland Road in the other game. They’d only kept five clean sheets in their 38 away games beforehand.

– Both Anthony Gordon and Bruno Guimarães have scored in each of Newcastle’s last two Premier League home games.

– Pedro Neto has been involved in more Premier League goals than any other Chelsea player this season (8 – 5 goals, 3 assists), with four of his five goals scored coming away from home.

Newcastle v Chelsea predictions

This has been a miserable trip north for Chelsea fans over the last three seasons, their team suffering a hat-trick of Premier League losses: 2-0, 4-1 and 1-0.

The Blues also lost 2-0 there in last season’s Carabao Cup so it’s four straight defeats at St James’ Park since a 3-0 victory in 2021.

Newcastle are a serious proposition at home and victory over Fulham in midweek made it seven wins and a draw in their last eight at St James’ Park in all competitions.

To counter that, Chelsea are joint-second for points won on the road in the Premier League this term.

Predictably, the betting is tight with Chelsea marginal 6/4 favourites ahead of 13/8 Newcastle.

With both sides having claims, the draw looks best here at 5/2.

Both teams to score looks a safe option but let’s have some fun picking out some goalscorers.

Pedro Neto has scored four times in his last eight away games so the jet-heeled winger is well worth a punt at 10/3 to grab another.

For Newcastle, Bruno Guimaraes has netted in four of his last five Premier League home matches so has to be value at 13/2 to wheel away in celebration again.

The Brazilian scored in this fixture last season.

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