Saturday night at Hill Dickinson Stadium. Arsenal arrive top, chasing a clean end to the year and a Christmas Day lead. Everton sit ninth and still have a real shot at pushing into the European conversation. The setup is simple. Arsenal want three points and a steadier away performance. Everton want to turn a strong home profile into a result against the league leaders.
Arsenal come in with momentum on paper and tension in reality. The Wolves win was points, not polish. Everton come in off a loss at Chelsea after a good run. This one looks like a game state match. First goal, set pieces, and game management late.
The table context and what it changes
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Arsenal’s edge in most models is real. One [Opta simulation](https://theanalyst.com/articles/everton-vs-arsenal-prediction-premier-league-12-2025) set has Arsenal winning in 60.4% of runs, with Everton at 19% and the draw at 20.6%. That is the macro view.
The micro view matters more at this ground.
* Everton’s home points per game: 1.75
* Arsenal’s away points per game: 1.75
* Arsenal’s total points per game: 2.25
* Everton’s total points per game: 1.50
* Arsenal last eight points per game: 2.13
* Everton last eight points per game: 1.63
So the gap exists across the season. The gap narrows in this venue profile. Arsenal still own the higher ceiling, Everton have a path via control, restarts, and a tight scoreline.
Head to head and the away problem Arsenal still has
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Everton have not beaten Arsenal in the last five league meetings. Two draws, three losses. Arsenal have outscored them 8-2 across that run.
That trend is useful. It is not the whole story for this trip.
Arsenal have won one of their last seven league away matches at Everton since 2018. Two draws, four losses. That is the recent pattern Arsenal need to break. Different stadium now, same opponent, similar type of test.
Expect Everton to treat this as a statement game in a new home. Expect Arsenal to treat it as a standard away grind. That clash of intent can shape the first 20 minutes.
Recent form and the shape of each team’s results
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Everton’s recent run had real value. Four wins in five before the Chelsea loss. Arsenal remain in the title race lead and can lock first place at Christmas with a win.
Arsenal’s recent away starts are the concern. They have conceded first in each of their last three league away matches. Across the last seven away league matches, they conceded first five times. That forces risk. That forces late chasing. It increases set piece exposure.
Arsenal’s late-game profile is another flag. They have conceded the fewest goals in the league, 10. Four of those 10 came in the final 10 minutes. That is 40%. The split does not mean the defense is bad. It does mean game control late has not matched the overall defensive numbers.
Everton’s key trend is ugly and practical. In recent league games, once they concede first, their recovery rate drops fast. One dataset notes they have lost eight of their last 10 league matches after conceding first. That aligns with the eye test. They do not chase games with high-quality chance volume.
That creates a clear target for Arsenal. Score first. Control the pace. Avoid the late wobble.
The numbers that frame the matchup
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Everton at home (8 matches)
* Goals for per match: 1.38
* Goals against per match: 1.13
* Clean sheets: 50%
* Scoring rate: 75%
* Failed to score: 25%
* Average corners for: 5.88
* Average corners against: 4.63
* Leading at half-time: 50%
* Conceded first: 38%
Arsenal away (8 matches)
* Goals for per match: 1.25
* Goals against per match: 0.88
* Clean sheets: 38%
* Scoring rate: 88%
* Failed to score: 12%
* Average corners for: 6.00
* Average corners against: 3.50
* Leading at half-time: 25%
* Conceded first: 62%
What it suggests:
* Arsenal score in most away matches. Everton concede about a goal per home match. That points to Arsenal getting chances even in a tight game.
* Everton keep clean sheets at home at a decent clip. Arsenal do not lead at the break often away. That points to a slow-burn match, not an early rout.
* Arsenal concede first away too often. Everton lead at half-time in half their home matches. That is the danger window for Arsenal. First 45, crowd energy, direct play, second balls.
Corners sit around 10 per match in the combined profile. Arsenal’s corner prevention away is strong at 3.50 conceded per match. Everton still generate nearly six corners per home match. That is a key duel. Everton need set piece volume to raise their scoring odds.
Tactical preview
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### Everton’s likely plan
David Moyes teams rarely overcomplicate this type of game. Expect a compact block, strong box defending, and direct outlets. Everton will try to create three repeatable situations:
1. Wide deliveries under control
2. Restarts in Arsenal territory
3. Transitional shots after Arsenal turnovers in midfield
Everton’s attacking output at home sits below league average in the data. Their defense ranks higher in their internal team profile. That matches how they can win this game. They need the match to stay narrow.
Watch for Everton to target Arsenal’s right side if Ben White is out and the back line shifts. Watch for early diagonals toward the far post. Watch for a second-run midfielder arriving late on cutbacks.
### Arsenal’s likely plan
Arsenal’s best route is patience with intent. They need to avoid sterile possession. They need to get Saka isolated, then trigger runs beyond him. They need Rice and Zubimendi to win the second ball layer and stop Everton counters before they start.
Two tactical goals should be obvious for Arsenal:
* Win the first goal via sustained pressure and set pieces.
* Reduce Everton’s corner count and free kick count.
Arsenal’s away leading-at-half-time rate sits at 25% in your data. That is not fatal, but it shapes the approach. Arsenal may accept a 0-0 at the break if the control is strong and Everton chance quality is low.
The key execution point is the final ball. Everton will defend the box with numbers. Arsenal need either quick switches to create the crossing lane, or central combinations that pull a center back out.
Key players
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### Arsenal
Bukayo Saka
He is the best lever Arsenal have in tight away games. Everton will try to show him inside into traffic. Arsenal need runners beyond him to punish that choice.
Declan Rice
This match is built for his defensive timing. Everton’s best moments will come right after Arsenal lose the ball. Rice has to kill those sequences early.
Leandro Trossard
He has scored Arsenal’s last two away league goals at Everton in the last two seasons. He has nine goal involvements in his last nine away league appearances, with a goal or assist in each of the last four. That profile matters in a game that may hinge on one moment.
David Raya and the center backs
Arsenal’s late concession split makes game management important. Claim crosses. Slow restarts. Clear first contact on set pieces.
### Everton
Jordan Pickford
If Everton are to survive Arsenal’s pressure, Pickford’s box command matters. Arsenal generate corners. Everton need clean claims to avoid repeat waves.
Dwight McNeil
He sits on a major appearance milestone and is a key delivery player. Everton need accurate wide service to create usable shots.
James Tarkowski
If Everton hold this to one goal conceded or less, Tarkowski will be central. Arsenal will test him with near-post runs and second-phase balls.
Team news and availability
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Arsenal
* Ben White is out with a hamstring issue. Arteta has said it is not a major injury, but it will keep him out for a few games.
* Gabriel is progressing and back on pitch work. His return is getting closer, but this match still looks early.
* Zubimendi has had managed training loads after heavy minutes.
* Havertz is progressing in rehab and the club feels positive about his trajectory.
Everton
* Idrissa Gueye and Iliman Ndiaye have left for AFCON duty.
* Kiernan Dewsbury-Hall went off with a hamstring injury and looks set to miss out.
* Jack Grealish has been flagged as a question mark after tightness.
* Several other absences have been reported in the wider coverage.
Everton’s losses hit midfield balance and chance creation. Arsenal’s losses hit defensive continuity. That is the trade.
What Arsenal should focus on
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Here is the practical checklist.
* Start clean. No early concessions. Keep the first 20 minutes boring.
* Win set pieces. Everton concede about a goal per home match. Corners can tip that.
* Force Everton to chase. Their recovery profile after conceding first is poor.
* Manage the last 15. Arsenal’s late concession share is too high for comfort.
* Keep Everton’s corner count down. Their best route to a goal is repeat deliveries.
Match prediction
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Everton’s home profile is solid. Arsenal’s away profile is strong in scoring rate, weak in first-goal prevention. That points to a match that stays close for a long stretch, then breaks on one sequence.
My call: Arsenal win 2-0.
Path: one goal from pressure and restarts, one goal late as Everton open up.
If Arsenal concede first again, the game becomes a coin flip and the draw comes into play fast. Arsenal have enough quality to avoid that trap. They need to prove it on this trip.