Turnovers have always been the Achilles' heel of the Golden State Warriors dynasty– the small sacrifice to pay in exchange for all the good that comes from the intricate, controlled chaos required to maximize the attention Stephen Curry's gravity attracts.
But amid a rocky 13-15 start to the season, the turnovers have done the Warriors far more damage than good. The Dubs rank 26th in turnovers per game (16.1) and 29th in the league in total turnovers (452). They've committed 20+ turnovers in five games this season and have surrendered 51 turnovers during their current three-game losing streak.
It's a problem that starts with Draymond Green, Golden State's floor general. Over the last two games, Green has committed 13 turnovers, for an uncharacteristically negative 0.76 assist-to-turnover ratio in that stretch.
“He's trying too hard right now,” Kerr diagnosed in the wake of the loss to the Phoenix Suns. “He's such a competitor, he's trying too hard to make plays and just needs to slow down a little.”
These aren't the kind of turnovers that come from the natural rhythm of a well-tuned offense, the kind that Steve Kerr and the Dubs have gladly lived with over the course of four championships. They've been errant, ill-advised, live-ball turnovers that opponents have used to punish the Warriors in transition– they've conceded 54 points off turnovers in the last two games.
Kerr's assessment matches Green's own. In the wake of the Warriors' loss to Portland, Green took responsibility for his eight turnovers, citing his “bad reads and bad decisions.” But Green also pointed to his lack of decisiveness in his passing game right now.
“I'm just going to throw the pass when I know it's there instead of second-guessing,” Green said after the loss in Phoenix. “I'm a great f**king passer. So, if I see the pass there, I'm not second-guessing. I'm just going to throw it. If I turn it over, I turn it over.”
Going through Green's 13 turnovers over the last two games
While Kerr and Green's individual assessments of the point-forward's turnover problems seem to contradict each other, they're both right to a degree.
On this play from the Portland game, the Warriors wrestle the rebound away from Blazers center Donovan Clingen and have an advantageous 4-on-4 fastbreak opportunity, with Green leading the break. Green sees Butler streaking down the middle, wide open, but doesn't see Shaedon Sharpe lurking, who subsequently picks off the pass.
To Kerr's point, Green's turnover here comes from trying to stimulate the offense and force the issue. And to Green's point, he actually sees Butler for a moment when the window to throw him the ball was open. But the one extra dribble and the two or three extra steps telegraphed the pass to Sharpe. Hesitancy, combined with pressing the issue, created the turnover.
But even if some of these turnovers have the right idea behind them and can, in theory, be adjusted by subtracting the second-guessing, others are just far too telegraphed.
On this possession versus the Suns, with Phoenix in scramble mode, Brandin Podziemski finds Green on the wing, and Green sees Curry wide-open, which should always trigger alarm bells for a passer to get the ball to the sharpshooter. Green doesn't hesitate here, but he does stare down Curry and misses Collin Gillespie, who reads Green's eyes the entire way and picks him off for an easy layup (that he smokes).
And even when the pass has the right idea and is in the flow of the offense, Green's just throwing bad passes. On this fastbreak opportunity, Green does a good job breaking into the paint of the Blazers' defense. He sees Quinten Post in the dunkers' spot, open enough for a good pass to result in a layup. But because Green throws a one-handed, underhand, off-target pass, it lets Sharpe recover from the corner and get the steal.
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The consequences of Green's turnovers
Golden State Warriors forward Draymond Green (23) against Phoenix Suns forward Dillon Brooks in the first half at Mortgage Matchup Center.
Mark J. Rebilas-Imagn Images
Again, the process behind many of Green's is correct. And when the pass is good, the read is correct, and the decisiveness is there, you get assists that show Green's still the elite playmaker he was in his prime. Look no further than this cross-court on-target dime to Moses Moody, while Green is completely blanketed by the defense.
That's one of those passes only a handful of players have the vision and IQ to see, let alone make. It's why Green called himself a great passer, with an expletive as a descriptor.
But when Green's not on his A-game, the Warriors suffer. These turnovers are coming in critical moments in close games. Eight of Green's 13 turnovers in the last two games came in the second half. And the Warriors lost those games by one or two possessions.
It's not even the fact that teams are punishing the turnovers with points. The Warriors' transition defense is actually one of the better ones in the NBA, only allowing 1.8 points per transition possession, which ranks 14th in the NBA. It's how these turnovers prevent the Warriors from even getting a shot up. These turnovers take away the Warriors' opportunities. That damages an already struggling offense, ranking 21st in offensive rating.
Whatever issue is plaguing Green's passing, whether it be second-guessing or doing too much, the Warriors need their playmaker to turn it around.
According to Cleaning the Glass, Green has a 25.8% turnover percentage, which ranks in the bottom 3rd percentile of players at his position. Basically, a quarter of all possessions used by Green, who has a 19.6% usage rate, result in a turnover. That's unsustainable.
Green's more than capable of cleaning that up. He has the pedigree to do so and the self-awareness to self-correct. But with the Warriors treading water at 13-15, that switch is going to need to flip fast.