Expected Goals is widely agreed to be the best way of measuring how well Premier League clubs play in any particular game.
To get a better look at how sides are doing, the Expected Goals (xG) metric allows you to get a better picture of just how teams are performing.
Expected goals (xG) is a statistic used to work out how many goals should be scored in a match.
With every single shot awarded an xG value based on the difficulty of the attempt, with factors including distance from goal, type of shot and number of defenders present affecting the value.
The higher the xG of a particular shot, the more likely a goal should be scored from that shot.
The xG value of every shot in a game is then used to calculate the expected goals in a particular match.
So rather than just the usual basic statistics of how many shots each team has, Expected Goals factors in where shots were taken from and how good a chance was and whether defenders in the way etc.
Here is the match from St James’ Park in Saturday, with the Expected Goals stats (plus the actual final scoreline in brackets) via Understat:
Newcastle United 2.88 v Chelsea 1.03 (2-2)
Following the match, the media are wanting to make this into a game of tough halves, whereby Newcastle better in the first and Chelsea better the second, with 2-2 pushed as probably some kind of fair result.
The truth is though, Newcastle absolutely battered Chelsea in the opening 45, then the visitors were the better team in the second 45 BUT not by a great deal, certainly not in terms of clear chances. The two Chelsea goals were a free-kick from distance and a goalkeeper clearance where Pedro did well but his chance came due to Thiaw’s slip.
As you can see, the Expected Goals stats tell the true story, Newcastle nearly three times higher (2.88) than Chelsea (1.03).
This simply fits in with what we watched with our own eyes, by far the biggest reason United didn’t win this was because they didn’t convert enough of the huge number of clear chances they created.
That is of course before you even consider the ridiculous number of terrible decisions by the match officials against Newcastle United.
Newcastle 2 Chelsea 2 – 20 December 2025 12.30pm
Match Stats
Goals:
Newcastle United :
Woltemade 4, 20
Chelsea:
James 49, Pedro 66
Possession was Newcastle 47% Chelsea 53%
Total shots were Newcastle 11 Chelsea 13
Shots on target were Newcastle 5 Chelsea 4
Corners were Newcastle 6 Chelsea 4
Touches in the opposition box Newcastle 22 Chelsea 22
Newcastle team v Chelsea:
Ramsdale, Miley, Thiaw, Schar, Hall, Ramsey (Willock 89), Tonali, Bruno, Jacob Murphy (Elanga 73), Gordon (Barnes 72), Woltemade (Wissa 73)
Unused subs:
Ruddy, Joelinton, Alex Murphy, Shahar, Neave