Apparently Liverpool shouldn’t be ruled out of the Premier League title race, despite history telling us they stand very little chance of retaining their crown.
Manchester United legend Wayne Rooney thinks Liverpool could put a run together to get themselves back in the mix with Manchester City, Arsenal and Aston Villa. We’re not so sure.
Premier League champions to lose 6 times (38-game season)
Manchester City, 2020/21
Manchester City, 2013/14
Chelsea, 2009/10
Manchester United, 2000/01
Arsenal, 1997/98
Manchester United, 1995/96
Speaking on his podcast, Rooney predicted Arsenal and Man City to battle it out for the title, but suggested that Liverpool shouldn’t be completely disregarded.
He said: “It looks like they’ll be the two to break away, but Liverpool as well… if Liverpool hit a run of form and win a few games, you never rule them out, especially if they get their support behind them.
“They could have a say and I wouldn’t rule them out, but Arsenal and City are the two who I think will break away. Aston Villa have done fantastic, but in terms of the Premier League, I think it’ll be one of the top two.”
History tells us Liverpool have been done for a while
We do agree that City and Arsenal are the clear favourites, though Villa should be taken more seriously than Liverpool.
Only once has a team that finished first lost more than six matches, and that was Blackburn Rovers in a 42-game season.
Liverpool need to be near-perfect to stand any chance of winning the title. Bridging a 10-point gap after 17 games doesn’t seem out of the realms of possibility, but history tells us that six defeats – which the Reds have already suffered since matchday 12 – is the upper limit for a Premier League champion.
As many as six champions have lost six matches, though Liverpool having just two draws this season gives them a tiny margin for error. History suggests they would need to go unbeaten from here until the end of the campaign and could probably only afford to drop points a maximum of four more times in their remaining 21 fixtures. Or lose twice and not draw again.
However, in an ultra-competitive, high-quality Premier League, that margin for error is even slimmer.
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Of the six champions to lose six matches, only one has done so in the last 11 seasons, and only two others have lost as many as five in that period.
And we’re talking about over the entirety of a 38-game season, by the way. Liverpool suffered their sixth defeat on matchday 12 at home to Nottingham Forest. None of the teams listed above hit that at the same speed.
To add further context, Liverpool still have to travel to Aston Villa, Manchester United and Arsenal, and are yet to host Manchester City and Chelsea.
Those are fixtures against the top, top teams. You also have awkward trips for anyone, like Sunderland and Brighton away, plus the first Merseyside derby at the Hill Dickinson Stadium.
Despite their woeful form in October and November, Liverpool would be worthy champions if they went on a monstrous run and only drew a couple of times from now until the end of the season.
Arne Slot knows what would be required to retain the Premier League title, but that doesn’t make it realistic. Liverpool would need plenty of favours and a fair amount of luck.
The Reds could have a big say in the title race with those aforementioned fixtures against the current top three, but that doesn’t mean they are realistically in the picture to usurp Man City, Villa and current pacesetters Arsenal.
Crystal Palace are ten points better off than after 16 games last season. Liverpool, meanwhile, are the biggest regressers…
How Premier League teams compare to last season after 16 games: pic.twitter.com/GBrhI6Nbte
— Football365 (@F365) December 19, 2025
Liverpool still showing fragility and lack control
Liverpool are now unbeaten in five Premier League matches, though that run includes draws against newly promoted Sunderland at home and Leeds United away.
Excluding their 2-0 victory at West Ham, who rolled out the red carpet for Slot’s men, this sequence of three wins and two draws has neither consisted of convincing performances nor comfortable encounters.
In the 2-0 win over Brighton they gave up chance after chance. Against Sunderland they were completely uninspired and needed an own goal to rescue a point. On Saturday at Spurs they played against 10 men for most of the match and nine from 90+3, yet still made hard work of a 2-1 win and once again looked easily rattled.
Liverpool’s run of five straight wins to start the season also showed signs of fragility, which came to the fore when Crystal Palace inflicted their first defeat of 2025/26.
That injury-time sucker punch at Selhurst Park opened the floodgates for a flurry of defeats and alarming performances, as several late winners went from papering over the cracks to simply deceiving.
Slot has tweaked a few things and his side now look more defensively solid. Mohamed Salah has unfortunately been sacrificed for that to happen, but it has proved to be the right call. Now that he is at AFCON with Egypt, there is no chance of another post-match meltdown after justifiably being left on the bench.
The fragility remains. There is still a lack of control in matches. And if there is any sense of control, it can spiral in an instant. Ibrahima Konate hasn’t magically turned a corner. Slot is starting a different right-back every week. Hugo Ekitike is their only consistent attacker. Alexander Isak has a broken leg. This team has a long way to go.
Not only does the table suggest Liverpool will struggle to compete for the title, but their performances tell us they are still a long way from their best – or from reaching the potential of this much-changed squad.
Rooney’s suggestion feels more like a throwaway comment than anything else, but it still opened a can of worms we’re keen to shut.
Aston Villa are being ruled out of the title race because they are Aston Villa. Liverpool are being taken more seriously because they are Liverpool.
We’re not sure the logic checks out, and history backs us up.
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