Arsenal return to the Emirates Stadium for a post Christmas Premier League fixture with clear stakes at the top of the table. Mikel Arteta’s side begin the weekend in first place, protecting a narrow advantage over Manchester City and entering a demanding run of fixtures. Brighton arrive in North London placed in mid table, searching for consistency and relief from a four match winless stretch.
This match brings together the league’s most reliable home side and a Brighton team that remains competitive without fully finding rhythm. Arsenal’s season has been built on defensive control, early dominance, and game management once ahead. Brighton’s campaign has leaned on patience, late goals, and recovery after conceding. The contrast sets up a contest shaped by structure, tempo, and execution across ninety minutes.
### Head to head context
Arsenal’s historical record at home against Brighton remains uneven compared with other Premier League opponents. Across eight league meetings at the Emirates, Arsenal have won three times, drawn twice, and lost three. Each home win has ended 2-0, with victories recorded in October 2017, May 2021, and December 2023. When Brighton score in North London, they tend to take something from the game.
Recent meetings suggest a tighter trend. Arsenal are unbeaten across the last four Premier League fixtures between the sides, posting two wins and two draws. Both league meetings last season ended 1 1, with Joao Pedro equalising on each occasion. The Carabao Cup meeting earlier this season went Arsenal’s way with a rotated lineup, offering limited carryover into this league fixture.
### **Current form and momentum**
Arsenal arrive having won twelve of their seventeen league matches. Their league form stands at WDWLWW, paired with WLWWWW across all competitions. At home, the record is commanding. Eight league matches at the Emirates have produced seven wins and one draw, with Arsenal unbeaten and conceding only three goals in front of their supporters.
Brighton enter the weekend on a run of four league games without a win. Their league form reads WWLDLD, reflecting a side capable of collecting points without sustaining momentum. The Seagulls have taken just one victory away from home this season and earned two points per away match on average. Most of their points have been gathered on the south coast.
The most recent outings underline these patterns. Arsenal edged [Everton 1-0](https://youaremyarsenal.com/three-things-we-learned-everton-arsenal/) away through a Viktor Gyokeres penalty, then rotated heavily in a midweek cup tie against Crystal Palace. Brighton were held to a goalless draw by Sunderland at the Amex, their second consecutive match without finding the net.
### **Tactical preview**
Arsenal’s structure under Arteta continues to center on positional control and quick vertical access once possession is secured. The likely shape remains a 4-3-3, shifting into a 3-2 build up with fullbacks stepping into midfield zones. Martin Zubimendi and Declan Rice provide balance in central areas, allowing Martin Odegaard to operate between lines and dictate tempo.
Pressing triggers remain consistent. Arsenal press aggressively after loss in advanced zones, aiming to force wide turnovers and lock opponents into the flanks. Against Brighton, this approach targets their slower first phase buildup and reliance on patient circulation.
Brighton under Fabian Hurzeler maintain a flexible structure that adapts between a back four and a situational back three. They aim to draw pressure before releasing wide runners late. The data suggests Brighton struggle to assert themselves early, with twelve of seventeen league matches seeing them fail to score before half time. Their threat often rises after the interval.
The match may hinge on Arsenal’s ability to manage transitions in the final quarter. Forty percent of goals conceded by Arsenal this season have arrived after the seventy fifth minute. Brighton score seventy two percent of their goals in the second half, with forty four percent coming after the same mark. Game management, substitutions, and defensive spacing will carry weight.
### Key Arsenal players
David Raya returns as the first choice goalkeeper and prepares for his one hundred fiftieth Premier League appearance. Since his debut in August 2021, he has recorded more clean sheets than any other goalkeeper in the competition. Arsenal concede an average of 0.59 goals per league match, a clear indicator of their defensive platform.
In midfield, Odegaard continues to lead chance creation. Among players with over five hundred league minutes, only two players across the division create more open play chances per ninety minutes. His four chances created against Everton highlighted his role as the primary connector.
Bukayo Saka remains Arsenal’s most consistent attacking outlet, combining width with direct penetration. Viktor Gyokeres provides penalty box presence and remains reliable from the spot, already converting key penalties in narrow victories.
At the back, William Saliba anchors a defense that has produced clean sheets in fifty three percent of league matches. Riccardo Calafiori offers flexibility across the back line, capable of operating as a fullback or center back depending on game state.
### **Brighton threats**
Brighton’s attack has lacked volume but retains late match danger. Kaoru Mitoma remains their most direct wide threat, capable of stretching the pitch and isolating defenders. Georginio Rutter provides movement between lines and support for wide runners.
The return of Lewis Dunk stabilizes their back line. Dunk’s presence improves aerial control and distribution from deep. Danny Welbeck offers experience and familiarity with the Emirates, leading Brighton’s scoring this season.
Brighton’s defensive numbers have improved across the last eight matches, conceding an average of one goal per game. Their structure tightens after the break, forcing opponents to recycle possession and seek patience in buildup.
### Injury and suspension updates
Arsenal remain without Gabriel Magalhaes, Cristhian Mosquera, Ben White, Kai Havertz, and Max Dowman. Piero Hincapie remains a fitness doubt after missing the midweek cup tie. Gabriel Martinelli was forced off against Crystal Palace with a knock and will be assessed.
Brighton expect returns for Lewis Dunk and Diego Gomez after suspension. Danny Welbeck and Jan Paul van Hecke face late assessments. Long term absentees include Adam Webster and Stefanos Tzimas. Solly March continues recovery. Carlos Baleba is unavailable while on international duty.
### Statistical breakdown
Arsenal average 2.29 points per league match, well above the league mean. At home, that figure rises to 2.75. Brighton sit at 1.41 points per match overall, with away performances dropping to 1.00.
Arsenal score an average of 1.82 goals per game while conceding 0.59. Brighton average 1.47 goals scored and 1.35 conceded. Arsenal keep clean sheets in fifty three percent of matches. Brighton record clean sheets in twenty four percent.
Arsenal score first in sixty five percent of league matches and convert those leads into wins at a perfect rate. Brighton score first in thirty five percent of matches and show stronger recovery, posting a fifty five percent equalizing rate.
Total goals per match involving Arsenal average 2.41, lower than the league average. Brighton matches average 2.82 goals, closely aligned with league norms.
### Prediction and closing thoughts
This fixture aligns with Arsenal’s season profile. Strong home form, early control, and defensive consistency contrast with a Brighton side that grows into matches but struggles to impose itself early. Brighton’s late scoring profile presents a challenge, yet Arsenal’s lead defending rate of eighty six percent points toward controlled outcomes once ahead.
The key variables center on Arsenal’s efficiency in chance conversion and focus late in each half. Brighton will wait for openings rather than chase the game early. Arsenal’s midfield control and defensive depth suggest the home side retain the tools required to manage that threat.
A measured outlook points toward an Arsenal victory shaped by discipline rather than volume. A clean sheet remains plausible if concentration holds through the final phase.