Unai Emery's Aston Villa have enjoyed a brilliant first half of the season and are comfortably occupying a Champions League position
Aston Villa beat Chelsea 2-1 on Saturday night(Image: George Tewkesbury/Shutterstock)
Aston Villa have never had more points after 18 Premier League games than their current tally of 39.
With 11 successive wins under their belt, Villa are also on their best run of form in 111 years and now head to league leaders Arsenal with the chance to make history.
Never before has the club won 12 matches in succession, and there will be no harder task this season than achieving that feat at the Emirates.
Villa, of course, beat Mikel Arteta’s side at home earlier this month and are also unbeaten in their last two visits to Arsenal.
Back in 2023/24, when Villa finished fourth and qualified for the Champions League, Emery’s side had 39 points after 18 matches, and 19 points after losing 3-2 at Manchester United on Boxing Day two years ago.
In the second half of that season, Villa earned a total of 26 points, which was the joint-eighth highest in the division.
In each of the last two seasons, fifth-placed sides earned 66 points, but Villa hit 68 in 2023/24 when they finished fourth. Last season, Chelsea reached 69 points.
With fifth place likely to earn a Champions League spot again this season due to the Premier League’s strong coefficient, Villa are in a strong position to return to Europe’s elite club competition.
In the last ten Premier League seasons, fifth-placed teams have averaged 67.7 points, but over the last six years, that figure drops to 66 points.
To match the 10-year average of fifth-placed point totals (68), Villa need just 29 more points - essentially nine wins plus a few draws. To reach 66 points, which both Villa and Newcastle finished on last season, they need another eight wins plus a few draws.
At this rate, Villa are on track to exceed 70 points, but with the Europa League knockout stage beginning soon, there will be a greater strain on the squad.
In 2023/24, as Villa went deep into the Conference League, their league form suffered, earning fewer points in the second half of the campaign than in the first.
Hitting 70 points is usually enough to secure a top-four finish. To reach that mark, Villa need 31 points, achievable with nine wins and four draws.
Villa are unbeaten at home in over a year and have won each of their last 12 home league matches, so they will continue to target wins on home turf until the end of the campaign.
They have already beaten the likes of Arsenal and Man City at Villa Park and will host Chelsea, Tottenham, and Liverpool later in the season.
Nottingham Forest, Everton, Brentford, Brighton, and Leeds United all come to Villa Park before Chelsea in March, after which Emery’s side will host West Ham and Sunderland, before finishing with home league games against Spurs and Liverpool.
With nine home matches remaining, plus trips to Bournemouth, Wolves, Forest, Fulham, and Burnley, Villa have enough opportunities to secure the wins needed to finish in a Champions League spot.
Talk of the title race can wait until March, as winning the league is about more than finishing in the Champions League positions. Whether Villa have the credentials to challenge for the title won’t be clear until Spring.
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