We look ahead to Tuesday’s top-of-the-table Premier League clash with our Arsenal vs Aston Villa prediction and preview. How will this result affect the title race?
Arsenal vs Aston Villa: The Key Stats
The Opta supercomputer pegs Arsenal as heavy favourites to claim victory over Aston Villa, with the Gunners winning 59.7% of the pre-match simulations.
Arsenal have won their final league game in four of the last five calendar years, with the sole exception being a 2-1 defeat at Fulham on New Year’s Eve in 2023.
Aston Villa have picked up 11 straight victories across competitions, matching their all-time club record last set in March 1914.
The Premier League title race has largely been a two-horse affair in recent seasons. Arsenal have featured regularly but have fallen short on each occasion over the past three seasons to either Manchester City or Liverpool.
This season, however, it seems we may have a three-horse race on our hands as surprise package Aston Villa have surged into third place, joining current favourites City and Arsenal at the summit.
Premier League table
Unai Emery’s side trail the Gunners by just three points ahead of Tuesday’s mammoth clash, following their incredible 2-1 comeback win over Chelsea on Saturday.
Ollie Watkins came off the bench and turned the game on its head, scoring twice in the second half to carry Villa to their 11th consecutive victory across competitions, equalling their all-time club record set in September 1897 and March 1914.
In the Premier League, they have won eight straight matches for the first time, and the first time in their top-flight history since a run of nine victories between October and December 1910.
This underlines a remarkable turnaround for the Villans. At the end of matchday five, they were 18th in the Premier League without a single win (D3 L2), having managed just one goal from their opening five fixtures.
But it’s been a completely different story from matchday six onwards. Emery’s side have collected more wins (12) and more points (36) than any other Premier League team in that span, announcing themselves as key contenders for the Premier League crown.
But they have a tough test in front of them in the form of leaders Arsenal, who maintained their narrow lead at the summit with a nervy 2-1 win over Brighton & Hove Albion earlier on Saturday.
The win, decided by an own-goal from Georginio Rutter, means that Mikel Arteta’s side have now won six consecutive Premier League home matches, marking their longest run since winning 10 between April and December 2022.
But it also exposed a familiar problem for the Gunners, who have created chances in abundance across their recent outings, but have often failed to find the finishing touch in front of goal.
Their win over Brighton followed a similar pattern to their narrow 2-1 victory over Wolverhampton Wanderers earlier in December, where two own-goals proved decisive. In fact, no side has benefited from more own goals in the Premier League this season than Arsenal (three).
Emi Buendía scored a dramatic 95th-minute winner in the reverse fixture on 6 December to end Arsenal’s three-month unbeaten run (with eight wins from a possible 11 in the league) but they have since bounced back, although not entirely convincingly.
Aston Villa 2-1 Arsenal xg race
Either side of their own-goal-assisted wins over Wolves and Brighton, they edged past Everton 1-0, extending a run that will certainly please Arteta, who will want his side to settle the score against Villa after missing out on that vital point recently.
Arsenal were handed a recent boost with Gabriel Magalhães returning from the bench in the Brighton game, though fresh concerns have emerged as Riccardo Calafiori and Jurriën Timber both missed the game with knocks.
Villa, meanwhile, have benefited from a largely settled squad, though Emery will notably be without the suspended Matty Cash and Boubacar Kamara for Tuesday’s trip to north London.
This match will mark Emery’s third away Premier League visit to the Emirates since leaving Arsenal. He has won once and drawn once there with Villa, and no former Gunners manager has ever gone three consecutive away league games at the stadium without defeat after departing the club.
The form player for Villa will certainly be Watkins, especially after his scintillating display against Chelsea. He has scored four goals in five away league appearances against Arsenal, the most by any Villa player at the Emirates.
For Arsenal, meanwhile, Arteta would be wise to involve Eberechi Eze from the get-go. The midfielder has played a part in five goals in four home league starts against Villa (two goals, three assists), all for former club Crystal Palace between May 2021 and February 2025.
Arsenal vs Aston Villa Head-to-Head
Aston Villa will arrive at the Emirates full of confidence following their last-gasp win at Villa Park earlier this month.
The Gunners have lost three of their last five Premier League matches against Villa (W1 D1) and could see Villa complete the league double over them for the third time in six seasons (also in 2020-21 and 2023-24). Emery’s side are already halfway there thanks to Buendía’s stoppage-time winner in the reverse fixture.
It bodes well for Villa that they are unbeaten in their last two away league matches at the Emirates, winning 2-0 in April 2024 and drawing 2-2 in January last season. Their last longer undefeated run against Arsenal was a three-match streak between 2006-07 and 2008-09.
Arsenal vs Aston Villa Prediction
Arsenal vs Aston Villa Prediction Opta Dec 2025
Although they have required some fortunate own goals to see them over the line in a string of narrow victories, Arsenal have still been creating quality chances and walk into this match as favourites according to the Opta supercomputer.
The Gunners took three points in 59.7% of the 10,000 pre-match simulations. Aston Villa prevailed 19.2% of the time, with a draw emerging as the outcome in 21.1% of the simulations.
Arsenal vs Aston Villa Predicted Lineups
Arsenal: David Raya, Jurriën Timber, William Saliba, Piero Hincapié, Riccardo Calafiori, Martin Ødegaard, Martín Zubimendi, Declan Rice, Bukayo Saka, Viktor Gyökeres, Leandro Trossard.
Head coach: Mikel Arteta
Aston Villa: Emiliano Martínez, Lamare Bogarde, Ezri Konsa, Victor Lindelöf, Ian Maatsen, Amadou Onana, Youri Tielemans, John McGinn, Emiliano Buendía, Morgan Rogers, Ollie Watkins.
Head coach: Unai Emery
Opta Power Rankings
The Opta Power Rankings are a global team ranking system. They assign an ability score to over 13,000 domestic football teams. This score is on a scale between zero and 100, where zero is the worst-ranked team in the world and 100 is the best team in the world.
Ahead of kick-off this weekend, here is the Opta Power Ranking for both sides.
Premier League Stats Opta
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