The late-game turnovers stole the headlines (pun intended) in the Celtics’ 114-108 loss in Portland, but big picture, it was just the sixth time in 31 games that Boston shot under 30% from behind the arc (13-of-34 for 29.5%). They’re now 1-5 on those cold-shooting nights.
In the past, it’s been a little bit of a bugaboo for Boston. In their championship run, they were 4-8 in the regular season when they couldn’t get over that Mendoza line. Last season when they increased their three-point shooting from 42.5 attempts to 48.2, they similarly had a 4-9 record in those games. That averages out to about every 6th or 7th game where the Celtics are going to have a dud from 3.
Whenever the Celtics don’t make shots and lose, their shot diet from 3 has always been the easiest scapegoat. During the preseason, head coach Joe Mazzulla bristled at yet another question about Boston’s three-point shooting volume, stating that the offense was less about finding threes and more about finding the 2-on-1 or 3-on-2 advantage on the floor.
He further explained on 98.5’s Zolak & Bertrand that “this is the first year we don’t have a stretch-5. Not having a stretch 5, that’s at least 8-10 threes that you’re going to have to turn into different types of shots, you’re going to have to create different kinds of 2-on-1s. Over the last two years, we’ve had five guys on the floor at all times that have shot 36% from three or higher, so when there was a 2-on-1, it was a very difficult decision for the defense to make and it was a very pass-pass situation, so that created catch-and-shoot opportunities.”
“Your shot profile is always going to match the strengths of your roster. We have different types of strengths. We’re a little bit younger. We’re a little bit faster. We’re a little bit more athletic. At the end of the day, we’re going to take the shots that the defense gives us and we’re going to look to find different ways to create 2-on-1s.”
Without Jayson Tatum, the trio of Derrick White, Payton Pritchard, and Jaylen Brown have been taking more or less the same number of threes that they did last season. Sam Hauser is eating about the same, too. Anfernee Simons has basically replaced Jrue Holiday’s allotment. And yes, the biggest change has been in the frontcourt: Al Horford and Kristaps Porzingis combined for about eleven threes a game; this year, we’ll get the occasional single shot from Luka Garza.
But as a whole, not much has changed in Mazzulla’s approach and most likely, nothing will moving forward. Against the Trail Blazers on Sunday night, they took around their average (42.8) with 44 triples and really, it was the nineteen turnovers that did them in, particularly at the end of the game.
However, here’s some food for thought: winning the margins. Mazzulla always talks about winning the margins. In the past, the Celtics could rely on a devastating margin from 3. In ‘23-24, they hit five more threes than their opponents. That shrunk to 3.6 last year. This year? It’s only 1.5.
I’d imagine if we asked Mazzulla about that margin, he’d either say “we need to guard the three-point line better” or “those are the shots were going to live with.” And maybe all this is still water finding its level. Maybe it won’t matter when Tatum comes back. And maybe a random late-December cold spell in a loss is just that.