Which team will win the Premier League this season? Stay up to date with our live Opta supercomputer predictions for the 2025-26 Premier League title race.
Mikel Arteta’s Arsenal lead the way in the Premier League title race in 2025-26. Their improved strength-in-depth has helped them get this far, but can the Gunners go all the way and finally win their first title since 2003-04?
Manchester City are breathing down their necks, though, which always feels ominous. They finished 2024-25 in third place after a record-breaking run of four consecutive Premier League titles between 2021 and 2024, but can Pep Guardiola lead them back to the top of the league this time around to add to his six Premier League title wins?
Liverpool won their second Premier League title in 2024-25, finishing the season with a 10-point lead over second place Arsenal in the table. Arne Slot’s side were hoping to secure successive English top-flight league titles for the first time since the 1980s, but the Reds are well off the pace after a difficult run in October and November.
The surprise package has been Aston Villa, with Unai Emery’s men going toe-to-toe with Arsenal and City. It wouldn’t quite be a shock of Leicester City 2015-16 proportions were Villa to lift the title, but their involvement certainly keeps things interesting.
Chelsea came into the season as the “best football team in the world” after lifting the 2025 FIFA Club World Cup, but have struggled for consistency, while any faint hopes Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur had of an unlikely title challenge are long gone. Both have at least improved on their below-par performances from last season, though.
You can keep up with the latest Premier League title projections by the Opta supercomputer throughout the 2025-26 season on this page.
How Does the Opta Supercomputer Model Work?
Opta’s League Prediction model estimates the likelihood of teams finishing in each position in the competition. We can therefore see how successful a team’s season is likely to be, whether it’s their relegation or title chances.
The model estimates the probability of each match outcome (win, draw or loss) by using betting market odds and Opta Power Rankings. The odds and rankings are based on historical and recent team performances.
The model considers the strength of opponents by using these match outcome probabilities and simulates the remaining fixtures in the competition thousands of times. By analysing the outcome of each of these simulations, the model can see how often teams finished in each league position to create our final predictions.
Premier League Stats Opta
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