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Why this season's free-throw spike should concern the NBA

One of the biggest debates that shapes how the game is played is always the same: how much physicality is allowed and how hard teams can actually defend in the regular season.

This is something Adam Silver and the NBA have been dealing with for years, trying to find a balance where the product is enjoyable to watch and keeps people engaged. Whilst at the same time, the intensity still feels real, so that when you're watching on TV, you can sense that edge and competitiveness that reminds you of earlier eras.

However, the game has evolved, and that balance isn't easy to strike.

What the free throw numbers tell us about NBA officiating this season

That's why I'm going to break down how the NBA is handling physicality so far this regular season.

What kind of contact is being allowed, how it compares to past seasons, where we are right now in terms of how much defense can actually be played, how often fouls are being called, and what the broader trends look like.

Last season, if we look at free-throw attempts per game at the league-average level, one of the most relevant indicators when assessing how much contact is being allowed, the numbers were very stable.

In the 2024-25 regular season, the league average was 21.79 free throw attempts per team per game. That figure was essentially in line with previous years.

Over the last few seasons, the league consistently hovered between 21 and 22 free throws per team, which effectively became the baseline.

Free throws in NBA: A stable baseline that suddenly broke

The 2023-24 and 2024-25 seasons were very similar in that regard, both sitting around that same league-wide average of roughly 21 free throws per team.

This season, however, we're seeing a clear, significant deviation from that trend, and it's a jump we don't see very often.

So far in the current regular season, the league-average free throw attempts per team have risen to 24.63, up 13.1% from last season. That's a substantial shift.

SGA

SGA

Credit Imagn/Scanpix

If we translate that into per-game context, this season we're seeing 49.26 total free throw attempts per game in total. Last season, that number was 43.57 free throws per game.

The same pattern appears when we look at team personal fouls per game. Last season, the league average was 18.73 personal fouls per team.

Team-level extremes highlight the shift

This season, that number has climbed to 20.94, which is an 11.8% increase. So the trend is consistent across multiple indicators.

Even when we look at the top of the league, the contrast is striking.

This season, Orlando leads the NBA with 28.8 free throw attempts per game, followed by Detroit at 28.2, Utah at 28.1, and Portland at 28.0.

That means four teams are averaging more than 28 free throws per game.

Last season, the league leader was Denver, at 23.3 free throw attempts per game. No team was anywhere near 25, let alone 28.

Nuggets went from NBA leader in free throws to league average overnight

To put that into perspective: Denver's 23.3 free throws per game, which ranked first last season, would rank only around 23rd or 24th in the league this season.

Based on the data, the conclusion is clear: through the first part of this season, significantly less contact is being allowed, and the numbers strongly reflect that trend.

And you can see this when you watch the games.

A lot of fouls are being called, especially around the rim — on drives, on contests, and in fighting for position situations.

Simply put, far less physicality is allowed than last season.

Why last season's physicality shift mattered

Last season, particularly in the second half, marked a real shift. Fouls were called less frequently, defenses were allowed to be more physical, and that approach carried over into the playoffs.

Nuggets

Nuggets

Credit Imagn/Scanpix

As a result, we ended up watching one of the best playoff runs in recent memory, mainly because teams were able to play with real physicality. That environment clearly suited a team like Oklahoma City, and it helped them on their path to the title.

That kind of basketball won't suit every team.

Not all rosters are built to play through constant contact, to defend physically for long stretches, or to fully exploit a rulebook that allows more physical defense.

The real problem with free throws in NBA: inconsistency, not physicality

But if the league consistently moves in that direction, if defenses are given more room and the offensive advantage is reduced over time, teams will adapt. That adjustment would happen gradually, across the league.

In that scenario, it wouldn't be about one team having a unique advantage. It would become a long-term trend lasting several seasons, something teams actively prepare for.

We're not talking about excessive physicality or turning games into fights. We're talking about consistency, about avoiding extreme imbalances in free-throw numbers and situations where, from one season to the next, we see increases of over 10% in free-throw attempts.

That kind of swing is not normal, and a league like the NBA shouldn't allow such sharp fluctuations.

At the very least, the process should be more transparent. There should be a clear multi-year plan outlining where officiating is headed, rather than abruptly changing standards.

Credit AFP

It's not easy for teams to adapt when the criteria shift suddenly from season to season, sometimes even during the season, resulting in a massive change.

Of course, playoff basketball will always be more intense. That's expected. But here we're talking specifically about the regular season, because the regular season is, in many ways, preparation for the playoffs.

From that perspective, whichever direction the league chooses for officiating standards should be one that lasts for several years, something teams can adjust to.

Whether it's a less physical or more physical game, the key is that the NBA needs to pick a direction and stay consistent, rather than constantly changing the rules of engagement.

In my view, the right answer is balance. It's not good to suppress offensive talent by allowing excessive physicality, and it's also not good to call marginal fouls constantly, as we're seeing now — with multiple teams averaging over 28 free throw attempts per game. That's not normal.

Ideally, in a balanced system, the top teams wouldn't be near 28 free throws. Maybe the upper end would be closer to 25, while the league average would sit around 21–22, as it did in previous seasons.

The most important thing is that the NBA commits to that standard and applies it consistently over time.

Vukašin Nedeljković

Vukašin played basketball competitively in his youth, and now contributes to Synergy Sports Technology and Sportradar regarding basketball analysis. He also has experience working as a journalist in Serbia and is passionate about writing basketball articles mainly focused on basketball X's and O's.

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