While fans and pundits continue to link Anthony Davis to the Hawks, insiders tell a different story.
There is “no meaningful traction at the moment” regarding a potential Davis trade to Atlanta, Marc Stein reported. This is yet another update from a well-respected NBA insider that contradicts the narrative that the Hawks are actively pursuing the 2020 Finals champion.
The root of the disagreement between the insiders and pundits comes down to two competing views of Davis and the Hawks' assets.
Neither team is budging on their demands (as of today)
The widely agreed-upon package viewed as the most likely would include Kristaps Porzingis, Luke Kennard, a low-value contract, and first round pick(s).
For the Mavericks, however, trading the man Dallas received for Luka Doncic for two disappointing players and mediocre picks would be a PR nightmare. This logic follows the “sunk-cost” fallacy, in which a team factors the price paid for an asset (the sunk cost) into its decision to sell it.
The high price of the Davis acquisition, however, is in the past – the Mavericks cannot undo the trade. At this point, the best option for the team is to treat Anthony Davis as the player he is, not the player who was traded for Doncic.
Falling victim to the sunk-cost fallacy has led Dallas into a situation where they appear to be demanding one of two trade pieces: the fabled 2026 NOP/MIL swap or former top pick Zaccharie Risacher. (Note that this is not breaking news; this is merely my interpretation of the trade talks.)
The pick, however, has been reported as untouchable in the past, and Atlanta doesn’t appear to be changing their mind any time soon.
While reporting also indicates Risacher is not on the trade market, he is the less valuable asset and, therefore, the most likely piece the Hawks would trade to match Dallas’s price. Risacher’s disappointing season has led to fans (and, apparently, coach Quin Snyder) losing confidence in the former top pick, but including him in a Davis trade would be a foolish gamble for Atlanta.
Simply put, Davis is not on an attractive contract. He is still an impactful player, but his contract runs until he is 35 years old. Considering the former Laker and Pelican already has a lengthy injury record, the prospect of paying an aging Davis $63 million in his final year is a risky proposition.
This is the disagreement that could sink the Davis deal. The Hawks do not see Davis’s contract as a massive positive, while the Mavericks must delude themselves into believing he is to justify the Doncic-Davis trade.
Barring a massive change in Atlanta or Dallas, the asking price of Davis is just too high.