THE ESSENTIALS
WHAT #1 Michigan (13-0, 3-0) vs#122 Penn State (9-5, 0-3)
WHERE Bryce Jordan CenterState College, PA
WHEN 7 PM
THE LINE Kenpom: M -22Torvik: M -26
TELEVISION FS1PBP: Connor OnionColor: Donny Marshall
THE OVERVIEW
Penn State somehow spat a first-rounder (Yanic Konan Neiderhauser) into the NBA draft last year after going 6-14 in conference; these two facts don't combine well. This year's edition of the Nittany Lions is real bad, even beyond normal Penn State Is Bad levels. They're currently 122nd in Kenpom; if that holds this will be the first year they've slipped outside the top 100 in a decade. Their traditional approach of having one salty guard at 30% usage and duct taping everything else together isn't functioning well enough because their defense is horrendous—182nd nationally.
And the context. Ye gods, the context. Penn State loaded up one of the worst nonconference schedules in America, lost to the only two KP100 teams on it (#78 Providence and #94 Pitt) and got Michigan-style blown out by Indiana. Their best game of the year is a four-point home loss to Michigan State. This won't be competitive.
[After THE JUMP: the guys who didn't get paid so Gavin McKenna could]
THE US
2026-01-06 Michigan after USC
Crown moves to Morez as the KPOY dap wanders over to him. Personally I think Mara should still get a crown as long as Michigan's #1 in two point D.
THE THEM
2026-01-06 PSU
Penn State does have a couple of hypothetically salty guards. Freshman Kayden Mingo (composite #37) is a major recruiting coup for Mike Rhoades and immediately slotted in as PSU's highest-usage, most-played player. A 60/24/76 shooting line and a 29 assist rate against a 11 TO rate look highly promising, but Mingo's had some issues in KP100 games, where his shooting has been rough and his TO rate shoots up.
Adam Finklestein's scouting on Mingo:
… highly competitive overachiever … very functionally strong without having a flashy frame, tough, and able to play through contact. He plays with an attacking mentality on both ends of the floor. He pressures the ball defensively, gets over screens, rebounds from the perimeter, has deceptive switch-ability onto bigger players, and a chance to really be a standout on that end of the floor. Offensively, he’s a drive-first type of scorer who puts a lot of pressure on the rim. He can be both quick and physical, even sometimes just putting his head down to bully his way through contact, but also has some finishing craft at the rim.
… has a very deep release point on his shot and was much less reliable in that range during the EYBL season (27%) than he was during the high school year.
Mingo has a top 25 steal rate and is coming off a whopping ten in the last two games; he's sort of the opposite of USC freshman Jerry Easter in that he's ready to make a lot of winning plays right now. FWIW, Mingo does have a reasonable midrange game (41% on 32 attempts) despite the issues from deep.
Junior Freddie Dilione V is a returning starter after transferring from Tennessee last year. PSU's been playing him starter's minutes this year but only actually put him in the starting lineup two games ago. He's shooting 59/33/84 from the floor and those numbers have actually gone up in KP100 games; this looks like a guy making a leap.
Either that or we've got some unsustainable pull-up action going. Dilione is at 57% on other twos, almost all of which are off the bounce. While this was a part of his game a year ago he was at 38%. But one thing Michigan doesn't want to see is a guy who doesn't care if he's near the rim or not, and Dilione currently is that. At 6'5" his midrange stuff will be tough to contest.
Turkish guard Melih Tunca (composite #139) left the starting lineup two games ago but still plays starter's minutes; not a whole lot of data on him yet but FWIW, 51/39/73 line overall but just 33/29 shooting in KP100 games and a typical freshman spate of turnovers. Looks like a zero in terms of rebounding/blocks/steals/FTs.
PF Josh Reed is a Cincinnati transfer; 60/22/86 line. Career 31% three-point shooter, takes care of the ball, low impact off-ball. His on/off splits mark him as a replacement-level player for PSU; team is the same with or without him.
At center, Penn State grabbed a buncha dudes from the Balkans in the vague hope they could play. Seven-footer Ivan Juric (composite #154) has started most of the year. He's beaten up on the various low-majors Penn State has played in the nonconference and done little in PSU's five KP100 games, where he's 6/15 from two. Juric is hitting 32% on 22 3PA, and that's about it for him.
Juric doesn't block shots; he doesn't create shots except on accident; he doesn't rebound effectively. He is a Stiff. He is obviously responsible for so many of PSU's defensive issues that it seems like coaching malpractice to play him as much as PSU does. When Juric is on the floor PSU is: nine points worse at defending the rim, seven points worse at cleaning up their own boards, and eight points worse at preventing FTAs. PSU's FGA defense is in the 300s at every range when he's on the floor. In Alex's words, bad!
Bench:
Eli Rice: Just A Shooter hitting 46% from deep.
Dominic Stewart: Just A Shooter hitting 39% from deep.
Mason Blackwood: 6'7" freshman missed five games and has little to go on so far. 8/10 from 2, 1/9 from 3.
Sasa Ciani: 6'10" Slovene transferred from UIC. Rebounding force in the Valley but iffy offensively (54% from 2, 53% from the line); shooting 39% from two this year; non-shooter. PSU defense massively better when he's on the floor, but only ~15 MPG.
Tibor Mrtic: 6'9" Slovene "freshman" who will be 23 in a month. Unranked. 36% from two in KP100 games; 31 FT%; meh rebounder.
Justin Houser: 7-foot freshman (#311 composite) has barely played and is likely to be patently unready but we've seen teams throw their patently unready large guys at Michigan all year so he could get off the bench some.
THE TEMPO FREE
Well, there's your problem:
image
The problem is that PSU is 299th in two point D and three point D; they're 351st in FT D and blocked shots. They've done this despite playing a schedule that Kenpom ranks 298th. Worst high major frontcourt in America? Probably. Worst period? Maybe.
The best thing PSU does is take care of the ball and get up good twos, but that too looks like an artifact of the schedule. In Big Ten play (early yet, I know) they're 12th of 18 inside the arc.
KEY TYPE THINGS
Keep salty guards in front. Nobody other than the two starting guards have done ~anything against Big Ten competition, and while both guys have a good pull-up game it should be more than enough to keep them away from the basket and whatever happens happens.
Do what everyone does to Penn State, except more of it. There is a strong possibility Michigan's two-point offense vs PSU's two-point defense is the biggest mismatch in the history of the Big Ten conference. In this corner: #1 in the country by 2.4 points. In that corner: team tied with VMI, having played about the same schedule as VMI. Michigan's over/under on 2PT% is what, 75%? 80%?
Work on yourself. Michigan is a middle-of-the-pack team in Big Ten play on the boards at both ends. While they've cleaned up the turnovers significantly, they are still committing too many non-steal TOs. If there's stuff to worry about, it's that.
SCORE A BILLION HOORAY. Nay, a trillion.
THE SECTION WHERE I PREDICT THE SAME THING KENPOM DOES
Michigan by 22.