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Analytics expert say Bucks might benefit more than Celtics in Giannis Antetokounmpo trade

Giannis Antetokounmpo has been floated in a trade scenario to the Boston Celtics in exchange for Jaylen Brown, with analytics expert Tom Haberstroh suggesting the Milwaukee Bucks could benefit more from the deal.

The Celtics, playing without Jayson Tatum, secured the second seed with a 115-101 win over the Chicago Bulls on Monday, and once Tatum returns, Boston is expected to be a top contender to represent the East in the 2026 NBA Finals.

Haberstroh explained that while the Celtics would have jumped at a swap of Jaylen Brown ($53.1M) for Giannis Antetokounmpo ($54.1M) a year ago, the situation has changed, with Brown’s MVP-caliber season.

The analytics expert pointed to Antetokounmpo’s recent injury history, noting that the two-time MVP has missed 35 games since 2022-23, as a reason for the Celtics to approach the trade with caution.

How would a Giannis Antetokounmpo trade for Jaylen Brown pan out?

Dec 6, 2024; Boston, Massachusetts, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) controls the ball while Boston Celtics guard Jaylen Brown (7) defends during the first half at TD Garden. Mandatory Credit: Bob DeChiara-Imagn Images

“He just turned 31. He has missed one in three games this season dealing with a nagging calf injury that keeps popping up on the injury report. Calf strains are increasingly being monitored for Achilles tear risk even if the science is mixed,” Haberstroh wrote about the Greek Freak.

Expanding on Haberstroh’s point, Antetokounmpo has not appeared in more than five playoff games in any postseason since 2022, when the Bucks were eliminated by the Celtics in the second round.

Haberstroh believes Brad Stevens will probably pass on a trade for Antetokounmpo, noting that Brown is two years younger, playing at an MVP-caliber level, and aligns more closely with the Celtics’ culture, which could be unsettled by losing the 2024 Finals MVP.

Dec 11, 2025; Milwaukee, Wisconsin, USA; Milwaukee Bucks forward Giannis Antetokounmpo (34) looks on from the bench while recovering from an injury in the second quarter against the Boston Celtics at Fiserv Forum. Mandatory Credit: Benny Sieu-Imagn Images

On the other hand, Haberstroh argued that Milwaukee might pass on the idea if their goal is to pursue younger talent instead of the 29-year-old Brown. He suggested that teams like the San Antonio Spurs, Oklahoma City Thunder, and Houston Rockets are better positioned to help the Bucks jumpstart their rebuild.

There is increasing doubt that the Bucks will make a move for Giannis Antetokounmpo before the February 5 deadline, with league insiders indicating the blockbuster trade could be postponed until the offseason. For now, Antetokounmpo appears focused on finishing the season with the Milwaukee Bucks.

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