By Martin Kibler
**A brief assessment of the last three and a half years and the remarkable statistic it bears** (Up to the 1/1/25, the half-way point in the season)
And a look at how some very strange penalty statistics could impact on Arsenal
————–
We are now just over half way through the season and as you will all be well aware, at the half way point Arsenal sat proudly on top, six points clear of nearest rivals Manchester City. Since then we have gone even further. This is how the top of the table looks today:
1
Arsenal
20
15
3
2
40
14
26
48
2
Manchester City
20
13
3
4
44
18
26
42
3
Aston Villa
20
13
3
4
33
24
9
42
4
Liverpool
20
10
4
6
32
28
4
34
It’s wonderful to see us top of the table at this time of the year, but of course this isn’t the first time this has happened in the last few years. But alas, we know to our cost it means very little. Being top in May is all that counts if you want to win the title. Nevertheless, this got me thinking. As we have been in and around the top 2 for three and a half seasons now, I wondered how we had done points-wise over that period, in comparison to the 2 teams that have pipped us to the title, Man City and Liverpool. And a quite remarkable stat it is.
This is how the table would look if we added together all the points from seasons 22/23, 23/24, 24/25, and up to the halfway point this season, 25/26.:
**Team**
**Played**
**Points**
Arsenal
133
292
Manchester City
133
292
Liverpool
133
263
Yep, unbelievably, after three and a half years, Arsenal and Manchester City are inseparable points-wise. But we are both a significant 27 points ahead of Liverpool.
Yet despite that remarkable statistic, Man City have won the title twice, Liverpool once, and of course Arsenal not at all, which is I’m sure you’ll agree, extremely frustrating.
But things are improving, step by step for as of Monday 5th of January that table moved to Arsenal having 295 points, Machester City 293 points and Liverpool 264 points. So yes we are a couple of points clear f Man City.
We have clearly been as good as Man City and we are clearly better than Liverpool. Yet no Cigar. So, why is that? Well, I believe it’s most likely been a combination of factors.
First and foremost, injuries. We have had lots of crucial players out for extremely lengthy periods, and often at the same time. Also, nerves may have played a part in certain crucial matches. And finally, and by no means least, there is the issue of referees and VAR. Now I appreciate I will get stick from not only opposing fans, but also some of our own, but I truly believe the PGMOL have played a significant role in our failure to get across the line.
The problem with this accusation is that it is very hard to prove, because of the subjective nature of so many decisions. But to give an idea of how the three teams are comparatively treated, I thought I would take a look at the penalty statistics.
Penalties of course can be crucial. For example, I believe they played a not insignificant role in Liverpool’s triumph last season. Nine penalties FOR, just the two AGAINST. Compare that to Arsenal’s paltry two penalties for compounded by the three against! That is a huge variation.
And surely, if there is significant bias in the way penalties are awarded, that bias would exist across all the other parameters as well? If the officials favour (or otherwise) a team with penalties, surely it is highly likely they are doing the same across the board? Well, let’s see.
Note: As a kind of ‘control’ I have also considered the 4th most consistent team over the same period, Chelsea.
So, what I looked at first was the last three and a half years talked about above. The three years we have come, second, second and second and now sit first.
The first number is penalties FOR the second AGAINST
* Arsenal 19 – 11
* Man City 20 – 13
* Liverpool 29 – 9
* Chelsea 22 – 12
So as you can see, the penalty count between Arsenal and Man City is almost as close as the points. Chelsea are not a long way outside those numbers either. There is very little between us, suggesting we have been neither favoured or otherwise over the last three and a half years when it comes to penalties, at least in relation to Manchester City and Chelsea. The same cannot be said when it comes to Liverpool.
It appears last season was no anomaly. They are such massive outliers this simply cannot happen by chance alone. So I thought I would look deeper. Surely those numbers cannot happen over 10 years, can they?
Well these are the penalty stats For and Against over the last ten years.
* Arsenal 52 – 51
* Man City 70 – 36
* Liverpool 66 – 30
* Chelsea 60 – 30
Those numbers are bonkers!!
Arsenal have been awarded just ONE more penalty than they have conceded. For a team whose average finishing position (including where we sit today) over that 10 year period is 4.5. That is mad.
Man City have conceded just over half the number of penalties they have been awarded. Now I can accept that to a degree, as their average finishing position is 1.6, but come on: that big a difference? It gets worse as we look at the other two teams.
Liverpool’s numbers are mad. Their average finishing position over the last ten years is 3.4, just one position better than Arsenal, yet they have been awarded **OVER TWICE** the number of penalties they have conceded.
Chelsea’s numbers are also mad, conceding exactly half the number they have received, and their average finishing position over the last 10 years is 4.7. Lower than Arsenal.
How can this be??
Whatever way you look at this, something isn’t right. Those three teams, Man City, Liverpool and Chelsea, all have massive bias in favour of the number of penalties received compared to conceded. Yet somehow Arsenal have been awarded that ONE SINGLE SOLITARY penalty more than they have conceded.
And again, despite this, whenever we have the odd contentious call go our way it’s portrayed in the media as Arsenal getting yet ANOTHER decision in their favour. When a call goes against us, we are told to stop moaning and suck it up because you got away with one 3 years ago!!!!
I’ll be honest here, I pretty much knew before I started that these numbers would be as they are, because I have done similar research before. And what I found when I did was that the bias against us started almost overnight. In fact, the very night Mike Riley took over at the PGMOL. Yep, the very Mike Riley who gave one of the worst, most biased performances ever in Match 50 at Old Trafford. His reward? Being made head of the PGMOL within the year.
We are being cheated. There is no other word for it.