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The Warriors have played 20 clutch games this season, and they’ve lost 12 of them.
Monday night’s strange heartbreakerto the Clippers was the latest. It brought Golden State to 8-12 in clutch games on the season, a trend that’s as head-scratching as it is season-defining.
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How can a team with Steph Curry and Jimmy Butler, two of the most clutch players of their generation, struggle so much in late-and-close games? How can a team with so much built-up championship equity and core continuity look so disorganized under the bright lights?
There is undoubtedly a degree of randomness to clutch performance. These situations are, by definition, coin flips. But executing down the stretch is the reason the Lakers (13-0 in the clutch) are in third place, and the Warriors are currently a play-in team.
The Warriors’ .400 win percentage in clutch situations — scores within five points in the final five minutes — ranks 23rd in the NBA. Only the Grizzlies, Cavaliers, Nets, Hornets, Clippers, Pelicans, and Pacers have been worse.
Curiously, their defense — a strength all season — falls apart late in games, ranking 29th in the clutch compared to fifth overall. A 13.7% turnover rate in clutch situations (19th) surely contributes to that number, but doesn’t completely account for it.
Upon a deeper examination, some common themes emerge. Practically every clutch situation involves Draymond Green playing center in small-ball units. When the Warriors get into trouble, it’s often because of their own errors — frequently unforced errors or mental mistakes. They rarely get to the foul line for easy points, and that’s a symptom of not getting the ball to Butler enough.
To diagnose Golden State’s clutch issues in more depth, let’s conduct an autopsy of all 12 clutch losses.
Jan. 5 at Clippers, L, 103-102
What happened?
Steve Kerr got ejected, Curry fouled out for the first time in five years, and the Warriors’ comeback bid fell short in the Intuit Dome. Golden State stormed back in the fourth quarter before Curry’s sixth foul, winning the frame 38-27. Terry Stotts, filling in for Kerr, drew up a game-winning play for Butler, but the wing airballed a fallaway over Nic Batum.
Key number: +13
Gui Santos, who didn’t log a single minute through three quarters, played almost the entire fourth. The Warriors won his 11-plus minutes by 13 points.
Swing play:
The Warriors got what they wanted with the game on the line: the ball in Butler’s hands, and anyone but Kawhi Leonard in front of him. Butler got to his spot, 17 feet from the hoop, but couldn’t make Batum pay. His fadeaway over his left shoulder was wide left. Had it grazed the rim, multiple Warriors were, by design, in position for a putback chance. Good process, poor execution with a chance to steal a win.
Side note: when Butler is revving up his engines in isolation, he likes to play with the ball between his legs before even dribbling. The quirk doesn’t give him any real advantage and doesn’t really even look particularly cool. It absolutely, 100%, rocks.
Dec. 28 at Toronto: L, 141-127 (OT)
What happened?
The Warriors blew a double-digit, fourth-quarter lead as Scottie Barnes took over. Barnes finished with 23 points, 25 rebounds, and 10 assists as the Warriors ran out of gas. Toronto won the overtime period 19-5.
Key number: 6
The Warriors committed four turnovers in the final five minutes of regulation and two more in OT. They came from Curry (2), Butler, Green, and Will Richard.
Swing play:
Golden State has struggled against ball pressure and full-court presses for years now. Toronto took advantage.
Someone, anyone, needs to come back into the picture and give Richard an outlet to beat the trap. Butler doesn’t make himself an option. Green walks behind the play. Richard is caught in no-man’s land.
Just before Richard’s turnover, the Warriors led by seven points with less than two minutes left. It should’ve been over. But they only got two shots up the rest of regulation because they couldn’t hold onto the ball and surrendered multiple offensive boards.
Dec. 18 at Phoenix: L, 99-98
What happened?
The Dillon Brooks gut check game. Phoenix grabbed control of a back-and-forth affair until Brooks socked Curry in the stomach as the guard attempted a 3-pointer. The flagrant foul nearly rescued the Warriors, as Golden State turned a five-point deficit into a tie game in one possession. But Moses Moody’s loose-ball foul with 0.4 seconds left gave Jordan Goodwin the game-winning foul shot.
This capped a brutal stretch for the Warriors. They had three games in an 11-day span, each against beatable opponents. They led entering the fourth quarter of each contest and took three Ls.
Key number: 9
Butler scored nine points in the final 5:15, including the game-tying 3. He’s shooting 40.3% from deep on the season on just 2.1 attempts per game. A clean Butler try from 3-point range, even early in the clock, is often better than what the Warriors can generate in the halfcourt. Maybe he should take a couple more.
Swing play:
It’s still hard to believe Brooks didn’t get tossed, fined, or suspended for this bush league play. Imagine the uproar if Green pulled something like that? And Brooks’ track record is just as spotty.
Dec. 14 at Portland: L, 136-131
What happened?
Curry and Jerami Grant went mano a mano through the fourth quarter, scoring 21 and 19, respectively, in the period. Despite Curry’s magnificent shot-making — and 48 points overall — the Warriors couldn’t get enough stops.
Key number: 65%
Portland shot 65% from the field in the fourth quarter, including 6-for-8 from 3. The Blazers scored 20 points in the final five minutes against Warriors lineups with Green at center.
Swing play:
Deni Avdija, a hell of a player who’s having a tremendous season, absolutely carved up the Warriors in the high pick-and-roll. But their coverage didn’t make much sense. Why trap him like he’s Curry 30 feet from the basket? A slasher and willing passer, Avdija is not much of a threat out there.
It also would’ve been better to swap assignments to get a bigger body, either Moody or Butler, to match Avdija’s physicality and let De’Anthony Melton take the rangier Shaedon Sharpe.
Golden State doubled Avdija on this play and the next, getting beat both times. Their coverage shifted when Green replaced Trayce Jackson-Davis, but Melton remained the primary defender on Avdija and the same results continued.
Dec. 12 vs. Minnesota: L, 127-120
What happened?
Thirty-nine points from Curry helped the Warriors erase a 12-point deficit, but Golden State couldn’t hold onto its slim clutch lead. Curry missed a key foul shot and the Warriors’ interior defense without Green, who was unavailable, made Rudy Gobert look like prime Shaq.
Key stat: 0
The Warriors got zero defensive stops in the final two minutes. Minnesota either scored or got to the foul line every trip. The Wolves scored 13 points in the final two minutes, going 3-for-3 from the field (2-for-2 from deep) and hitting five of six free throws.
Swing play:
The Warriors didn’t turn the ball over in crunch time and created consistently good looks like this one. Only this time, Quinten Post glitched out.
Post has had a really nice season. But plays like this make it unclear if he’s truly dependable in the biggest moments.
Dec. 4 at Philadelphia: L, 99-98
What happened?
The Pat Spencer “I’m That MFer” game. The Warriors clawed all the way out of a 24-point hole to lead for most of clutch time. But Spencer threw away an inbound pass, VJ Edgecombe put back a missed jumper for the go-ahead score, and Tyrese Maxey pinned Melton at the horn to cap an unreal finish.
Key number: 3
The Warriors had to inbound the ball three times in the last 15 seconds — once from the baseline and twice from the sideline. That’s a difficult task against an athletic team with the sole objective of coming up with a steal.
Swing play:
A superstar play from Maxey, who started out of bounds by his own bench and tracked all the way back to break the Warriors’ hearts.
Dec. 2 vs. Oklahoma City: L, 124-112
What happened?
Without both Curry and Butler (who left after 15 minutes), the Warriors scrambled for offense, scoring just five points after Spencer’s turnaround over Chet Holmgren with 4:54 left. It was an admirable effort for the short-staffed Warriors to even reach clutch time against the defending champs.
Key number: 9
Reigning MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander scored or assisted on nine of the Thunder’s final 18 points. The Thunder had their closer, the Warriors didn’t.
Swing play:
A 3-pointer would’ve made it a one-possession game with less than 90 seconds to go, but Buddy Hield clanked a good look from the corner. That’s how the season has gone for Hield, who hit nine 3-pointers in a Game 7 win over Houston last spring but has now fallen out of Kerr’s rotation.
Nov. 26 vs. Houston: L, 104-100
What happened?
Leading by one with five minutes left, the Warriors scored just eight points before a desperation 3-pointer from Moody with six seconds left. Curry shot 4-for-13 and injured his quad in the loss.
Key number: 3
Curry committed three of the Warriors’ four clutch turnovers as Golden State failed to execute. Curry committed seven total turnovers in the rematch of last year’s first round playoff showdown.
Swing play:
It’s hard to play defense in today’s NBA. It’s still unclear what Curry could’ve possibly done better as Thompson lowered his shoulder into him.
Nov. 21 vs. Portland: L, 127-123
What happened?
Neither team could get a stop, as backup guard Caleb Love traded buckets with Curry and Butler. The Blazers won the final 5:41 by two — 16 to 14. Robert Williams III blocked a pair of shots and Toumari Camara blocked two more as Portland’s length gave the Warriors’ small-ball lineup issues. Curry scored 38 points in the defeat.
Key number: 10
Curry and Butler scored 10 of the Warriors’ last 14 points. The other four came from Gary Payton II, who closed over Brandin Podziemski, who had 20 points in 30 minutes.
Swing play:
All that Portland length must’ve spooked Payton into this smoked layup. Or, maybe he just tricked it.
Either way, it was a well executed split-action set that should’ve changed the tenor of clutch time.
Nov. 5 at Sacramento: L, 121-116
What happened?
Curry, Green, and Butler each sat out this contest, but the Warriors were still tied with Sacramento with 5:57 left. They never took the lead thereafter, trading buckets with DeMar DeRozan and Dennis Schroder.
Key number: 4:02
The Warriors went over four minutes without a made field goal, as their lack of shot creation was on full display.
Swing play:
That’s a no-pass possession with a 3-pointer taken with 17 seconds left on the shot clock from a 32% shooter. Just not the shot you want.
Nov. 1 at Indiana: L, 114-109
What happened?
The Warriors led by 11 halfway through the fourth quarter before going ice cold. They scored just five points in the final six minutes, surrendering a 21-5 run. Curry and Butler each missed a clutch foul shot, either of which could’ve changed the tenor of the final possessions.
Key number: 1
Butler took one shot in clutch time, a 1-on-1 dunk through a foul. Curry, meanwhile, went 1-for-6 from the field (0-for-4 from deep). Podziemski and Jonathan Kuminga each missed a 3-point attempt.
Usually, Curry taking tough 3s in close games is good process. But he was struggling all night, and Butler’s a closer, too. Get him the rock and get organized around him.
Swing play:
Kuminga does a nice job flashing to the nail to give Curry help because he was on an island against Pascal Siakam, Indiana’s most dangerous player. But then he gets caught ball-watching instead of staying between his man — now Siakam — and the ball. After showing to Siakam, Kuminga needed to scram-switch Curry off of him. Instead, he allowed him to set his feet for a wide-open, go-ahead 3.
Kuminga didn’t close many tight games after this loss. Then he got injured. Then he fell out of the rotation. Then the ship sailed.
Oct. 30 at Milwaukee: 120-110
What happened?
In one of the most damaging early-season losses, the Warriors unraveled after inching to a two-point deficit with four minutes left. An 11-2 Milwaukee run right afterward sank Golden State. The Warriors closed with a lineup of Curry, Butler, Kuminga, Green, and Al Horford before replacing Horford with Podziemski. Neither unit could stop a red-hot Ryan Rollins, who starred without Giannis Antetokounmpo.
Key number: 2
Two turnovers, each committed by Curry, on back-to-back possessions. These were killer against a Milwaukee team that’s now 3-11 without The Greek Freak this season.
Swing play:
Rollins, up six points with the clock ticking, walked down Horford and hit a jumper in isolation. The Bucks took turns hunting Horford all night; Milwaukee went 9-for-21 when matched up with the center.
The Warriors signed Horford to have the option of going big in late-and-close games. For the most part, he hasn’t been up to the task.