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Arsenal vs Liverpool prediction: Backing Saka as the Gunners eye the jugular

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If there’s been a recurring criticism of Arsenal in recent seasons, it’s focused on their somewhat cautious approach against the Premier League’s best.

That accusation reared its head again at Anfield earlier this season when they played it safe but were undone by a late wonder free-kick from Dominik Szoboszlai.

There was reason to be wary of Liverpool back then given that the Reds were Premier League champions and had started their defence with wins, even though dramatic, against Bournemouth and Newcastle.

But there is absolutely no excuse for Arsenal not to go for the jugular on Thursday night.

The Gunners have roared into a six-point lead in the Premier League after racking up 15 wins and three draws in their 20 matches while Liverpool are a shell of last season’s title-winning outfit.

Since fooling almost everyone with five straight wins to start the season, the Reds have fallen off dramatically.

Indeed, curate a table from Matchday 6 onwards and Liverpool would be down in 12th with five wins, four draws and six defeats.

They start Thursday’s showdown at the Emirates 14 points behind Arsenal having been five clear of the Gunners after that 1-0 win at Anfield on the last day of August.

How to watch Arsenal v Liverpool

Arsenal v Liverpool kicks off at 8pm GMT on Thursday, January 8 at the Emirates.

The game will be shown live on Sky Sports Premier League & Sky Sports Main Event, with coverage starting from 7pm.

TalkSPORT will provide full match commentary.

Arsenal team news

Mikel Arteta doesn’t have too many fitness concerns ahead of this one.

Riccardo Calafiori is a doubt at left-back but the Gunners have plenty of cover in that area while their defence has been bolstered recently by the return of Gabriel.

In attack, there are plenty of options too, with Gabriel Jesus fit again.

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Bukayo Saka will get the nod after starting on the bench at Bournemouth to keep him fresh while perhaps the main decision is who to play out of Gabriel Martinelli and Leandro Trossard on the left side of attack. Both have caused Liverpool problems in the past.

Arsenal expected line-up

(4-3-3) Raya; Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, Hincapie; Rice, Zubimendi, Odegaard; Trossard, Gyokeres, Saka.

Liverpool team news

With Egypt into the last eight at Afcon, Mo Salah is again absent for Liverpool. Arsenal will probably be glad given that he’s netted 11 goals in 17 games against the Gunners.

With Alexander Isak recovering from a broken leg, Arne Slot will hope to have Hugo Ekitike back after the French striker missed the 2-2 draw at Fulham with a muscle injury.

But Slot revealed that the Frenchman hadn’t trained on Tuesday so perhaps a place on the bench is more likely, with Cody Gakpo filling in as the central striker.

Jeremie Frimpong may get another opportunity to show his pace in an advanced role on the right.

Liverpool expected line-up

(4-2-3-1) Alisson; Bradley, Konate, van Dijk, Kerkez; Jones, Gravenberch; Frimpong, Szoboszlai, Wirtz; Gakpo.

Arsenal v Liverpool stats

– Against no side have Arsenal lost more Premier League games than they have against Liverpool (26, level with Man Utd).

– Liverpool are looking to complete the Premier League double over Arsenal for the eighth time, and first since 2021-22.

– Arsenal have conceded in each of their last 20 Premier League games against Liverpool since a 0-0 draw in August 2015.

– Arsenal have won their last seven home Premier League matches – only once under Mikel Arteta have they had a longer home league winning run, winning 10 consecutively between April and December 2022.

– Only Burnley’s Premier League matches this season have seen more goals in the 90th minute or later (10) than Liverpool’s (9 – 5 for, 4 against).

– Arsenal have won their last two home Premier League matches against the reigning champions, beating Man City in both 2023-24 and 2024-25.

– Bukayo Saka has scored in each of his last three Premier League home games against Liverpool.

– Cody Gakpo has scored three away league goals this season, all of which have come in his last four league appearances in London (goals at Chelsea, West Ham, and Fulham).

Arsenal v Liverpool predictions

Arsenal will surely never get a better chance to beat Liverpool.

The only doubt is that a home win seems almost too obvious!

Part of the overthinking is that the Gunners have beaten Liverpool in just one of their last seven meetings in all competitions.

More reassuring for home backers is that Arsenal have defeated the Reds in two of their last three Premier League games at the Emirates.

Arsenal scored seven times in those three meetings and Slot’s men have shipped more away goals this season than rock-bottom Wolves which is quite a stat!

This has to be a home win but maybe Liverpool can nick a goal.

Try scorelines of 3-1 at 12/1 and 2-1 at 8/1. Arsenal to win and both teams to score is another option at 12/5.

For a goalscorer punt, Bukayo Saka stands out. Take him at 13/5 to net against Liverpool at the Emirates for the fourth season running.

It’s worth noting that if Gakpo gets the nod as Liverpool’s central striker, the 11/2 for the Dutchman to score anytime is definitely value, especially after he scored away at Fulham on Sunday.

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