The Washington Wizards have spent years relying on present misery to lay the groundwork for a hopeful future, thanks to the NBA draft lottery. A run of recent success could jeopardize their first-round pick and the ongoing rebuild.
The Wizards — now 10-28 as the season nears the halfway point — have doubled their win total since Christmas. Coach Brian Keefe’s squad has won five of their last 10 after a 5-23 start.
But the subpar record was expected by Washington’s front office and welcomed by fans who have, according to countless posts on online forums, “embraced the tank.”
The Wizards are not built to compete for a title in 2026. They are one of the youngest teams in the league.
Instead, this year’s Wizards are providing a proof of concept for the future.
Second-year guard Bub Carrington is looking to establish himself as a reliable ball-handler who can orchestrate the offense. Alex Sarr, the No. 2 pick in the 2024 draft, is earning his pre-draft hype after a difficult rookie campaign.
At his best, Sarr shows flashes reminiscent of versatile bigs like San Antonio Spurs star Victor Wembanyama or Giannis Antetokounmpo of the Milwaukee Bucks. Sarr found his shooting stroke, connecting on 50% of his shots and 35% of his three-pointers so far this season. The seven-footer is still averaging a league-leading 2.3 blocks per game.
“He’s seeing and processing things even quicker. We want him to keep attacking,” Keefe said of his 20-year-old center after a win over the Orlando Magic last week. “We think he has room to grow, which is amazing to say [with] what he’s doing out there already for a guy his age. It just anchors our whole thing.”
But the inspiring success from Sarr and other youngsters has a cost.
The Wizards have a lone first-round pick in next year’s draft. Draft picks are golden tickets for NBA teams looking to claw their way back to relevance. The Oklahoma City Thunder proved that. The once-abysmal franchise used a haul of picks acquired through trades to build a young, championship-winning roster last season.
Washington general manager Will Dawkins rose through the ranks of Oklahoma City’s front office before moving east in 2023. He knows the importance of those picks.
But the Wizards are in danger of losing their only first-rounder in June’s draft. Thanks to a series of convoluted protections from a 2023 deal, the Phoenix Suns technically own the Wizards’ top pick.
Washington will only keep the selection if it falls within the top eight spots in the draft.
When the season began, that protection looked impregnable. The Wizards are guaranteed to keep their pick if they finish as one of the NBA’s four worst teams. They oscillated between the top two picks for the first two months of the season.
The Wizards have risen to the fourth-worst record in the league, though. If they maintain their current form, they’ll slip out of their safe zone by season’s end.
Due to the NBA’s lottery odds, the Wizards would have a 0.6% chance of losing their pick if they pass the Brooklyn Nets for the fifth-worst spot in the standings. Those odds rise to 3.9% if Washington passes the Utah Jazz on the leaderboard.
The Wizards are only five games behind the Los Angeles Clippers in the standings. Washington would be likely to lose their pick — a 79.7% chance — if they reach Los Angeles’ spot in the draft order.
Rising up the standings didn’t stop Dawkins and the Wizards’ brain trust from trading two veterans to the Atlanta Hawks for four-time All-Star Trae Young.
“Trae’s been a force since he got in the league, day one rookie year. He evolved into one of the best and most elite, proven playmakers,” Dawkins said on Friday. “We’re excited to add to the rebuild of the organization.”
The standings might keep Young from joining his new teammates on the court, though. The guard is sidelined with an MCL sprain, as knee and quad injuries have kept him out of all but 10 games this season.
Multiple reports have indicated that the Wizards could keep Young on the bench to preserve their draft positioning. An All-Star caliber talent on offense might be enough to push Washington toward .500, a disastrous fate for a team that needs to add high-end talent in the draft.
“They want to make sure I’m right. Obviously, I’ve been playing through some stuff early on. I just got to leave it up to them,” Young said on Friday. “They want to make sure I’m right, and I do too. I don’t want to come back and not be myself.”
The Wizards, who face the Clippers on Wednesday night, don’t appear to be rushing him back. Their first-round pick may depend on his absence.