A battle of fine margins.
Introduction
Chelsea host Arsenal at Stamford Bridge for the first leg of the Carabao Cup. Call it a derby, a clash of styles, a trophy marker or a battle of egos, but there’s another storyline worth highlighting: corners.
Both clubs have specialist set‑piece coaches with Brentford roots. Both have upgraded their dead‑ball work. And both have serious stakes this season: Arsenal chasing the Premier League and another deep Champions League run, Chelsea hunting for silverware and a top‑four finish.
Arsenal have been consistently elite on set pieces, while Chelsea have been one of the biggest revelations in this area. It has pushed their level up and it already played a role in this matchup, with Chelsea scoring from a corner in the league draw at the Bridge.
So if this tie gets cagey, it could come down to dead balls.
Let’s see what the data says.
Arsenal: Corner Excellence As Expected
Attacking Structure
In last week’s Liverpool piece, we broke down how Arsenal pose a consistent threat from corners, particularly from the left, where Rice’s inswingers often target the central and far-post zones. On the right, they show more variety, creating danger across all areas but especially near and central.
To build on that, I’ve included a more detailed view from my set piece stats, focusing on where Arsenal actually generate their xG inside the box.
Where do Arsenal generate the most xG by corners on each side
The data shows a clear trend:
From theleft, Arsenal generate a huge portion of xG from thenear-post and central zones.
From theright, it’s morebalanced, but there’s still a strong presence around thepenalty spot for rebounds and second balls.
It’s not just volume, it’s structure. Arsenal’s corner routines are hard to defend, and they consistently find ways to create clean looks from well-drilled patterns.
Arsenal Are Corner Solid
Arsenal are showing the full picture when it comes to set pieces. When the club brought in a dedicated set piece coach, the expectation was to add goals but what’s just as impressive is how they’ve limited goals at the other end. That balance has helped them stay near the top of the table. If you dominate both ends of the pitch, you're going to be in the title race.
Arsenal are solid defensively on corners
So far this season, Arsenal have conceded just2 goals from corners in the league , across 21 games. That’s a strong return. TheirxG conceded is low, andthey allow the fewest shots from corners of any team in the league. It’s a sign of a well-drilled defensive unit, not just in open play, but at dead balls too.
Arsenal’s Weak Spots from the Right (Opposition Left)
Arsenal’s conceded corners from the offensive left/ Arsenal’s right
Heatmaps and delivery data show thatmost of the danger against Arsenal comes from central zones when defending right-sided corners (the opposition’s left).
Corner context of the left side
There’s also some threat from the near post and it’s no coincidence that Chelsea’s goal at the Bridge earlier this season came from that exact zone.
That shows some patterns can work against them if executed well.
Arsenal’s Weak Spots from the Left (Opposition Right)
Arsenal’s conceded corners from the offensive right/ Arsenal’s left
On the opposite side, Arsenal look a bit more secure but there are still some recurring issues. Again,central zones show some vulnerability, and there’s a bit of xG building up around thefar post, which could be something Chelsea look to exploit.
Corner context of the right side
The data suggests there are openings to exploit, particularly in thenear post zone from the offensive left, whether through inswinging or outswinging deliveries. On theright side, both thecentral and far zones have shown signs of vulnerability..
Final Note
Arsenal’s defensive corner numbers are elite but they’re not unbreakable. And in the league showdown, Chelsea already exposed one of those weaker areas.
This rematch will be another test of how well Arsenal can manage those fine margins, especially against a side that’s quietly grown into a real set piece threat themselves.
Chelsea: Progress at One End, Problems at the Other
Set-piece improvement has been a long-standing demand from Chelsea fans. While signs of progress began to show last season, it’s this year that they've truly kicked on, especially when it comes to corners.
Offensively, Chelsea are now among the league's elite in xG and shot volume from corners, matching top sides like Arsenal and United. The execution, variety, and repeatability have taken a real step forward.
Chelsea are elite in offensive corners
But defensively, the picture is far less convincing. The numbers highlight some clear vulnerabilities, both in terms of xG conceded and the volume of shots allowed. Chelsea may pose a threat on their own set plays, but they remain exposed when defending them.
Chelsea are struggling defensively
This contrast is what makes them so fascinating and potentially volatile in these big matchups.
Chelsea’s Offensive Threat
Left Side: Variation & Volume
Unlike many teams who rely heavily on one side or a single delivery style, Chelsea show a well-balanced approach in their corner routines. Both flanks are productive, making them unpredictable and harder to defend against.
Chelsea’s offensive corners from the left
From the left, Chelsea generate threat across all zones, near, central, and far. The heatmap highlights how difficult it is to pin down a single pattern. They can mix it up mid-game, shifting delivery styles and target zones to exploit weaknesses.
Chelsea’s left corners context
Looking deeper into the context:
While there’s a slight emphasis on thenear post, some of the most dangerous chances come fromcentral and far-post deliveries.
Reece James leads the way with inswingers toward the near post, whileEnzo Fernández offers quality central deliveries, giving Chelsea flexibility in their delivery profile.
The result? High xG chances from multiple zones, including shots from both Chalobah and Cucurella off James’ near-post deliveries.
Chelsea’s ability to switch angles, vary delivery types, and target different areas makes them a genuine threat from corners, especially from this left side.
Right Side: Control Through Chaos
Chelsea continue their set-piece dominance from the right, showing a mix of volume and precision that makes them difficult to defend against. With multiple takers and varied routines, their threat is both consistent and unpredictable.
Chelsea’s offensive corners from the right
From the right, Chelsea create danger across all zones, near, central, and far with a particularly strong return from central areas. The delivery strategy leans heavily oninswingers, especially fromPedro Neto, who leads the volume with 43 deliveries and solid xG returns.
Chelsea’s right corners context
The context shows:
Central zones are the most productive, with the highest xG per shot and a notable number of goals.
They still generate meaningful threat from thenear post, using different angles—including straight deliveries to find gaps.
Players like Neto and Estevão offer different profiles, contributing to the tactical variety and depth in routines.
Whether it’s near, far, or central, the execution is sharp, and the chances are real. Chelsea’s right-sided corners are just as effective as their left, and this balance across both sides is a major part of what makes their set pieces elite.
Target Zones of Threat
A closer look at Chelsea’s xG from corners reveals a well-rounded threat from both sides.
From theleft, thecentral andfar post zones are the key areas, with consistent danger even from thenear post.
From theright, there’s a clear spike in threat through thenear and central zones, while thefar post just around the penalty spot also shows high-quality chances, likely coming fromstraight or low inswinging deliveries.
Where do Chelsea generate xG on each side
Chelsea’s variety and ability to hit multiple zones make their corners difficult to read and defend.
Target Zones of Weakness
While a deeper dive into Chelsea’s defensive vulnerabilities will come in a future piece, this visual already highlights a few key red flags.
Fromleft-sided corners, Chelsea concede heavily in thenear post andcentral zones, areas where concentration and marking seem to drop.
Fromright-sided corners, the threat shifts toward thecentral-far zones, with opponents finding space in dangerous pockets around the penalty spot.
With Arsenal’s variety of set-piece weapons and precision delivery, these zones could be prime targets to exploit. Something to watch closely in the upcoming clash.
Individual Battles – HOPS Insight
One of my previous projects introduced**HOPS, a metric focused on aerial duels, measuring a player’sheader-winning probability**.
While it fluctuates with form (recency bias), I’ve worked on a project where we proved a strong correlation with xG from corners, which makes sense: the better you are at winning headers, the more chances you can create.
Looking at this matchup:
Arsenal have a clear edge in aerial presence, withGabriel, Saliba and Timberall ranking highly.
Chelsea, meanwhile, rely heavily onChalobah, with a few others like Reece James and Enzo Fernandez offering secondary support.
If Arsenal can isolate these favorable duels, they could create real danger. The key will be positioning and targeting the right zones and making sure their best headers are the ones attacking the ball.
Conclusion
Set-piece battles have been a personal favorite to dive into this season and the deeper you go into the numbers, the more patterns you start to see. While my app and event data don’t capture runs and blocks, adding tracking data could unlock even more insights, something I’m definitely curious to explore further.
Arsenal continue to thrive across all fronts, and their set-piece efficiency plays a huge part. Chelsea, on the other hand, are clawing their way back into relevance and set plays have been a big reason why. Both teams have strong delivery profiles from both sides, which only raises the stakes.
With a cagey first leg at the Bridge expected, don’t be surprised if a set piece ends up being the difference.
In the future, I’ll be diving deeper into throw-ins and free kicks.
Who do you think edges it tonight? And how much weight do you put on set pieces in general?
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