Keep or sell Semenyo? What the Manchester City star's transfer means for FPL playersplaceholder image
Keep or sell Semenyo? What the Manchester City star's transfer means for FPL players | Getty Images
Antoine Semenyo’s move to Manchester City has given FPL players a headache - here’s what our expert thinks they should do.
For Antoine Semenyo, a move to Manchester City was the chance of a lifetime, validation for all the trials and tribulations of his early career. For City, it represents the addition of some extra firepower up front and the chance to close the gap to Arsenal at the top of the table. For Fantasy Premier League players, however, it’s all a bit of a headache.
As every FPL player comes to know sooner or later, Pep Guardiola loves to rotate his players – and two productive players who seemed unusually nailed-on for their starting spots, Phil Foden and Rayan Cherki, are suddenly a minutes risk. So too, of course, is Semenyo himself.
Semenyo is the second-highest scoring midfielder in the entire game, but should the 44% of players who own him hold on or sell with his place now in doubt? Should those without the Ghanaian buy in now that he’s moved to a team which could provide him with even more opportunities? Our expert - with a best finish well inside the top 2,000 - takes a look at the pros and cons and offers his advice on what FPL players should do next…
Should you sell Antoine Semenyo on FPL?
There are, in essence, two things which need to be assessed when deciding what to do with Semenyo ahead of the Gameweek 22 deadline – whether he will start, and whether Manchester City will perform well enough as a whole to make taking a risk on one of their players worthwhile.
The second question is perhaps easier to answer, but even that isn’t especially straightforward. City are on a 13-match unbeaten run in all competitions, and coming in to the time of year at which Guardiola’s sides have typically taken the bit between their teeth, ironed out the creases and started winning. City in the New Year are generally exceptionally dangerous.
On the other hand, prior to the absurd 10-1 thrashing of Exeter City in the FA Cup last weekend, they went through a run of three low-scoring draws in which they only managed two goals. Semenyo’s presence could make them more fluid up front, but they haven’t been at their free-flowing best in the final third of late, League One opposition notwithstanding.
The good news is that their upcoming fixtures are relatively kind. In other seasons, away games at Manchester United and Tottenham Hotspur could be challenging, but United are still regrouping after the departure of Ruben Amorim and Spurs are not only enduring an awful run of form but have allowed the second-highest xG of any team in the league. Spurs are not a team who look especially strong at the back right now.
Liverpool away in a few weeks’ time is a different kettle of fish, but there’s also a home game against an ailing Wolves side in Gameweek 23. On fixture strength alone, it seems to be worth keeping Semenyo if you have him at least for the next three games. Then, when Liverpool are on the horizon, you will have the data to work with to make a more informed decision as to whether to move on or to ride that game out and have the winger in your side for easier fixtures to come.
That’s all well and good, but it’s irrelevant if Semenyo is in and out of the team. City didn’t spend £65m on a player just to bench him, but Foden, Cherki, Savinho and Jérémy Doku will all demand minutes from somewhere.
Semenyo has started both matches since signing, against Exeter in the FA Cup (when he was substituted in the second half with the game well beyond doubt) and against Newcastle in the EFL Cup semi-finals, when he played the full 90 minutes. That bodes well, but will create some nerves among owners worried that it means he’s now due a brief rest.
The good news is that Guardiola tends to give new senior signings an extended run in the starting XI after they arrive. When Omar Marmoush was signed last January in similar circumstances, for instance, he started the first five Premier League games he was eligible for, and only found himself on the bench in that period once in the Champions League. Marmoush was, admittedly, substituted in every single one of those games, but the starts were there and by the end of the season he had played in every league game and started all but two.
Semenyo could get similar treatment, although the form of Foden and Cherki in particular makes that less predictable. It wouldn’t exactly be a shock if he started the Manchester Derby wearing a bib this weekend, but it would be against type for Guardiola to bench him for each of the next three or four games. He will probably get a decent number of minutes with which to establish himself in the squad.
It helps that he scored in both of his two starts so far and had another goal disallowed against Newcastle. All signs point to him starting matches over the coming weeks. Ultimately, I would keep Semenyo in any team which already has him – but wait for more data if I didn’t already have him in my squad.
How will Semenyo’s arrival affect Phil Foden and Rayan Cherki?
Of course, Semenyo’s signing doesn’t just raise questions about keeping, signing or selling the former Bournemouth man – it puts question marks over Cherki and Foden’s heads, too.
Cherki seems to be in the most immediate danger of an extended run of benchings. He was already rotated fairly frequently and was a substitute for two of the last three games. He was on fine form before the last three league matches, but it makes a lot of sense to look for an alternative in his case. I would move Cherki on, knowing that he’s cheap enough to bring back easily should he continue to be a starter.
Foden seems safer. He’s started every single league match since Gameweek 4, and doesn’t seem likely to be an immediate victim of the dreaded Pep Roulette. The bigger worry there is that he hasn’t scored or assisted a goal in any of City’s last five matches.
I wouldn’t sell Foden because of Semenyo’s arrival, but I would be considering his position anyway. His ceiling is very high but he has only been productive in fits and starts over the last 18 months and most of his hauls this year came in one sustained burst. If you are able to shift Foden over to a player like Cole Palmer, then that’s probably a wise move regardless of City’s activity in the transfer market.
Ultimately, Foden will probably play plenty but may find himself in more deeper positions thanks to Semenyo’s arrival and isn’t on great form in FPL terms. I wouldn’t be in a desperate hurry to sell, but he’d be on the list of players I’d think about getting rid of. Cherki, however would be higher – and as it stands, I’d say Semenyo was actually the best bet of the three, with the highest short-term ceiling and a floor no lower than his rivals for a starting place.
Guardiola has always had an unpredictable streak to him and all of this advice could end up looking foolish soon. There’s also the question about where Marmoush will fit in to the equation once he’s back from the Africa Cup of Nations in a week’s time. Much could change quickly.
Manchester City’s fixtures are, ultimately, good enough to ensure that none of their assets merit panic sales, but not good enough to make me want to invest too heavily. Still, I’m not too worried about Semenyo’s minutes or points over the next few weeks. Keep him, and save your transfers where you can.
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