Before the NBA season tipped off, we outlined a seven-step roadmap for the new-look, Jaylen Brown-led Celtics to exceed expectations in 2025-26.
Exactly halfway through, they’ve successfully checked six of those boxes, with the seventh still pending.
The result: Boston entered the week with the second-best record in the Eastern Conference, the fifth-best in the league, and top-three rankings in point differential (third), offensive rating (first) and net rating (second). Joe Mazzulla’s club has been, by almost any all-encompassing metric, one of the best in the NBA through 41 games.
Ahead of Monday night’s marquee matchup against the Detroit Pistons — No. 1 vs. No. 2 in the East — here’s a closer look at how Boston stacks up against those seven preseason benchmarks:
1. “Jaylen Brown looks like a legit No. 1”
“Boston’s clearest path to competitiveness involves Brown playing at an All-NBA level.”
Brown, who’d said for years that he could thrive as a No. 1 option if given the chance, has aced this test thus far, playing his way into the NBA MVP conversation while Jayson Tatum recovers from Achilles surgery. Owning the NBA’s second-highest usage rate behind Luka Doncic, he’s the league’s fourth-leading scorer (29.7 points per game) and is on pace for a career high in assists (4.8).
Though the 3-pointer has been the centerpiece of Boston’s offense under Mazzulla, Brown has found success by becoming one of the premier 2-point maestros, taking more shots per game from inside the arc than any other NBA player. He’s also averaging a career-best 7.3 free throws per game — despite frequent gripes about what he considers unfair officiating.
Simply put, he’s been exactly what this Celtics team needs.
2. “The most important players stay healthy”
“This current Celtics roster does not have (the) luxury (of proven depth). Losing a key player like Brown or White for any significant length of time could tank their season.”
Brown, who failed to reach the 65-game threshold for postseason awards last year, has appeared in all but three of Boston’s 41 games, sitting out two due to illness and one with back spasms. Starters Derrick White, Payton Pritchard and Sam Hauser have missed one game apiece. Top center Neemias Queta has missed two. That’s a total of eight DNPs for Boston’s current, Tatum-less starting five.
The Celtics’ key reserves have been regularly available, too. Sixth man Anfernee Simons has appeared in every game, and Jordan Walsh, Hugo Gonzalez, Luka Garza and Baylor Scheierman have been sidelined for a total of two (not including their occasional DNP-CDs).
Outside of Tatum, the only player on the roster who’s missed extended time is wing Josh Minott, who sat out the last six games with an ankle sprain. But Minott fell out of Mazzulla’s rotation in late December and wasn’t seeing meaningful minutes when he suffered his injury.
For context, at this point last season, Brown had missed seven games, Tatum three, Hauser seven, Jrue Holiday six, Luke Kornet six, Al Horford eight and Kristaps Porzingis 23.
3. “Anfernee Simons becomes a playable defender”
“Simons can score. Everyone knows that. … But can he be at least respectable on the defensive end? That’s the big question facing the 26-year-old guard.”
It was telling that, after Simons scored 39 points off the bench last Thursday in a come-from-behind win over the Miami Heat, Mazzulla spent much of his postgame news conference praising the guard’s improved defense.
Simons has gone from liability to legitimately impactful at that end since joining the Celtics over the summer, and those improvements have helped turn him into one of Boston’s most valuable contributors. After an uneven start to the season as he adjusted to his new bench role, the former Portland Trail Blazers starter owns the NBA’s fourth-best plus/minus since the beginning of December.
The big question surrounding Simons now is whether Boston’s front office views him (and his $27.7 million expiring contract) as a trade chip or an asset worth retaining. We’ll find out by the Feb. 5 trade deadline.
Boston Celtics center Neemias Queta (88) fouls Denver Nuggets forward Zeke Nnaji (22) during the first half at TD Garden. (Photo By Matt Stone/Boston Herald)
Boston Celtics center Neemias Queta (88) fouls Denver Nuggets forward Zeke Nnaji (22) during the first half at TD Garden. (Photo By Matt Stone/Boston Herald)
4. “The frontcourt exceeds its low expectations”
“The move from Kristaps Porzingis, Al Horford and Luke Kornet to Neemias Queta, Luka Garza, Chris Boucher and Xavier Tillman is an enormous downgrade on paper. The Celtics will need career years from at least one of these big men to field even a league-average frontcourt.”
The Celtics essentially took a “we’ll see how it goes and hope for the best” approach at the center position this past offseason — and so far, it’s worked.
Queta has been more than solid as a first-year starter (10.2 points, 8.2 rebounds, 1.2 blocks per game), and Garza, after being exiled to the end of the bench for much of December, has been a consistent difference-maker off the bench, excelling as a screener and on the offensive glass while shooting a team-best 48.9% from three. It hasn’t mattered that Boucher and Tillman — the Celtics’ two most experienced bigs — have hardly played.
Even Boston’s rebounding — an unsurprising early-season issue for a team that lost its top three big men and its leading rebounder (Tatum) from last year’s squad — has become a strength of late. With help from their crashing wings, the Celtics rank sixth in defensive rebounding rate and fourth in offensive rebounding rate since the start of December, and seventh in overall rebounding rate this season.
Still, trade rumors have linked the Celtics to several established big men, so they could make a move to bolster this group in the coming weeks.
5. “Multiple depth wings become reliable rotation players”
“Jordan Walsh? Baylor Scheierman? Josh Minott? Hugo Gonzalez? With no proven depth on the wing behind Brown and Hauser, the Celtics will need at least half of those inexperienced backups to play real roles this season.”
How about all four?
Gonzalez, an instant contributor as a 19-year-old rookie, boasts the NBA’s second-best individual net rating. The Celtics went 15-5 with Walsh — who’s having by far the best season of his three-year career — in their starting lineup. Scheierman has become an everyday rotation player, earning his playing time through deflections, drawn charges and the occasional timely 3-pointer. Even Minott has been a net positive, starting 10 games and playing big minutes as a small-ball center before falling down the pecking order. All four have swung games with their chaotic energy and hustle plays.
6. “The East is as wide-open as expected”
“Any argument for the Celtics remaining competitive this season should start with the quality of their conference.”
Seven Eastern Conference teams — from the second-ranked Celtics to the No. 8 Heat — entered the week with between 22 and 26 wins. The New York Knicks, Cleveland Cavaliers and Orlando Magic have underachieved relative to preseason hype, and the defending conference champion Indiana Pacers have cratered amid a tidal wave of injuries.
The Pistons sit comfortably atop the East standings, carrying a 4 1/2-game cushion into Monday night’s matchup. But is a franchise that’s won just two postseason games since 2008 an NBA Finals shoo-in? Hardly. The Celtics should be viewed as real conference contenders, especially if…
7. “Jayson Tatum returns for the stretch run (and looks like himself)”
“If Brown and Co. can scrap their way into the thick of the Eastern Conference playoff race, they couldn’t ask for a more helpful midseason addition than a healthy Tatum.”
By all accounts, Tatum is on or ahead of schedule in his Achilles rehab. The Celtics have insisted they will not rush him back, but a midseason comeback appears realistic. If he returns and looks like Tatum, even in a reduced role, watch out.