Arteta has been speaking after the bore drawplaceholder image
Arteta has been speaking after the bore draw | AFP via Getty Images
Could Arsenal seal a dramatic last day Premier League title win or will victory be secured with room to spare?
The countdown is on. With 16 games left in the Premier League, Arsenal are in pole position with their title rivals playing catch-up.
The seven-point gap should have been nine, which would have given Mikel Arteta even more breathing space, however, at this stage of the season he would have snapped your hand off for such a big lead.
How many points will Arsenal need to win the Premier League?
Arsenal are still competing on all four fronts, but winning the Premier League remains the ultimate goal. It is the only trophy that really matters this season and even considering a Champions League title instead might be one that is easy to turn down. Currently on 50 points, there will be a target that Arteta is aiming for, but what do the statistics say?
Looking at the last five seasons, Arsenal will have to get 89 points to win the title. Liverpool have won it with the lowest amount, 84, and Man City won their first of four in a row with 86.
What could bring that number down though, is the current position of Arsenal’s nearest rivals, Man City and Aston Villa. With a seven-point deficit, they have no margin for error and, if they win every game between now and the end of the season, could reach 91 points. It is a big if. If they do, and Arsenal hold up their end of the bargain, the Premier League could be won against West Ham, away, on the 9th of May, leaving a short trip back to North London to celebrate.
What does Opta predict for the title run-in?
Opta, the Premier League’s home of statistics has a predicted table of its own and has suggested that Liverpool’s tally of last year will be enough to succeed. They have Arsenal with an expected points tally of just over 83, Man City on 73 and Aston Villa on 71, with these numbers rounded up or down accordingly.
No team is going to win their next 16 games which makes Opta’s table look considerably more realistic. City and Villa might both decide to concentrate on Europe as the spring months come around if they are still in with a chance, leaving Arsenal with a clear run to the Premier League.
For Arsenal to get 83 points, it would take only 11 more games to cross the line. To make matters even better, this could see Arteta lift the Premier League crown at the Etihad and in front of his former mentor’s nose. Football is never this simple though, and there will be plenty of twists and turns ahead, as perfectly illustrated by the failure to extend the lead at the top to nine points against Forest.
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