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Chelsea return to Champions League action on Wednesday night with Pafos visiting Stamford Bridge, as Liam Rosenior takes charge of his first European fixture since stepping into the role.
The Blues remain firmly in the qualification picture but sit outside the automatic top-eight places, leaving little margin for error across the final two league-phase games.
Saturday’s 2-0 Premier League win over Brentford offered a steadier platform after a turbulent spell, and Rosenior will be keen to carry that control into Europe.
Chelsea’s home form in this competition has been a clear strength, even as results on the road have stalled their progress.
Pafos arrive in west London still fighting for a play-off place in their first Champions League campaign, having shown resilience despite their underdog status.
With Napoli to come in the final round, Chelsea know that maximum points here would significantly sharpen their route into the knockout stages.
How to watch Chelsea v Pafos
Chelsea vs Pafos kicks off at 20:00 (UK) on Wednesday, January 21, at Stamford Bridge. The match will be shown live on TNT Sports 3.
Chelsea team news
Chelsea’s squad is beginning to stabilise, though a few issues remain.
Romeo Lavia and Tosin Adarabioyo are sidelined with hamstring problems, while Rosenior has been managing a minor illness bug within the group.
Malo Gusto, Enzo Fernandez, Jamie Gittens, and Estevao are all pushing to be involved after returning to training, with late decisions expected.
Rotation is likely given the schedule, particularly with Chelsea competing across multiple competitions in quick succession.
Chelsea expected lineup
(4-2-3-1) Sanchez; Acheampong, Fofana, Badiashile, Hato; Fernandez, Santos; George, Pedro, Garnacho; Delap
Pafos team news
Pafos travel to London with fresh concerns at the back after a difficult domestic outing at the weekend.
David Luiz was forced off early with an injury, while defensive partner David Goldar and attacker Joao Correira were also withdrawn, leaving Albert Celades short on options.
The visitors are expected to patch together their back line, with Derrick Luckassen likely to feature centrally alongside makeshift support.
Despite those setbacks, Pafos remain competitive in midfield and will look to stay compact for long periods.
Pafos expected lineup
(4-3-3) Michail; Bruno, Luckassen, Langa, Pileas; Pepe, Sunjic, Quina; Dragomic, Silva, Orsic
Chelsea v Pafos stats
– Chelsea sit just outside the Champions League top eight with two games remaining.
– The Blues are unbeaten in 17 UEFA league-phase or group-stage home matches.
– Chelsea have scored in 21 consecutive European games at Stamford Bridge.
– Pafos are competing in the Champions League proper for the first time.
– The Cypriot side are yet to score away from home in this competition.
– Chelsea have won all three of their home league-phase matches this season.
Chelsea v Pafos predictions
Chelsea’s home record in Europe remains the clearest pointer here, particularly with Pafos arriving short in defence and likely to spend long spells without the ball.
Rosenior’s side should be able to control territory and tempo, even with rotation, and the structure shown against Brentford suggests a more measured approach than earlier in the campaign.
There’s little point backing the hosts to win at such short odds. Likewise, a win-to-nil bet isn’t tempting just in case. But the Blues should have enough to win by a comfortable margin, so back the -2.5 Asian handicap at 11/10.
David Luiz’s return to Stamford Bridge looks ripe for a card, if he plays. He’s likely to spend long periods under pressure against nippy forwards.
Plus, he just can’t help himself. His tendency to step out aggressively makes the odds of 11/5 for a yellow card quite tempting.