Barcelona head into a decisive stretch of the UEFA Champions League knowing there is no room for error.
After the latest round of group-stage matches, the Catalan side sit in 15th place in the overall standings, a position that leaves them outside the automatic qualification spots for the round of 16.
With only two matchdays remaining, the picture is now very clear for Barcelona.
The margin is tight, but qualification remains possible, and for that, Barça must win both of their remaining fixtures.
The Blaugrana face Slavia Prague next, before closing the group stage on January 28 against FC Copenhagen.
With 10 points currently on the board, there are no alternative scenarios or safety nets.
Anything less than six points would almost certainly end their hopes of direct qualification.
Will that be enough?
If Barcelona manage to win both matches, they would reach 16 points. Historically, that total has been enough to secure a top-eight finish.
Still, the problem is that Barça do not depend solely on their own results.
Jules Kounde, Barcelona player
Barcelona need to win both matches. (Photo by Judit Cartiel/Getty Images)
Several rivals are ahead in the standings, including Inter Milan, Atletico Madrid and Liverpool, all of whom are two points clear. Meanwhile, Atalanta currently occupy eighth place with 13 points.
That reality means Barcelona must not only win, but do so convincingly.
In that regard, goal difference could become decisive, especially in a scenario where several teams finish level on points.
There is more to it
The situation is further complicated by the fixtures of their direct rivals. Atalanta host Athletic Club while sitting on 13 points and a +2 goal difference.
Atletico travel to face Galatasaray with 12 points and a +3 margin, while Liverpool visit Marseille with the same tally and goal difference.
On paper, overtaking Newcastle United, who host PSV Eindhoven with a +7 difference, or Chelsea, who welcome Pafos FC with +5, looks even more difficult.
Currently, Barcelona’s goal difference stands at +3. While positive, it is fragile given the number of teams involved in the race.
In this context, simply winning may not be enough and Barça must aim for dominant performances to boost their goal average.