Liverpool’s commanding 3-0 victory over Marseille on Wednesday night has put the Reds firmly in control of their Champions League destiny – and Arne Slot’s side now know exactly what’s needed to bypass a potential fixture pile-up.
Following Dominik Szoboszlai’s moment of genius and further goals from an own goal and Cody Gakpo, Liverpool climbed to fourth place in the Champions League league phase table with 15 points. The six-time European champions now sit just one victory away from guaranteeing automatic qualification to the Round of 16, which would crucially allow them to skip the two-legged knockout play-offs scheduled for February.
Liverpool’s path to the top eight couldn’t be clearer. A victory against Azerbaijan champions Qarabag at Anfield on January 28 will mathematically secure a top-eight finish and direct passage to the March Round of 16.
The Reds currently hold a +6 goal difference – level with Chelsea but trailing Tottenham (+8), Newcastle (+10), and PSG (+10). While a draw against Qarabag could potentially be sufficient depending on results elsewhere, Liverpool’s inferior goal differential compared to several rivals means anything less than three points introduces unwelcome uncertainty
While Liverpool enter as overwhelming favourites against 18th-placed Qarabag, the Azerbaijani champions have proven they’re no pushovers in this year’s Champions League. Qarabag currently sit on 10 points after seven matches, including a stunning 3-2 victory over Eintracht Frankfurt on Matchday 7 – a result that officially eliminated the German side. They also held Chelsea to a 2-2 draw in Baku earlier in the competition.
Liverpool have never faced Qarabag in competitive action, making the January 28 encounter a first-time meeting between the clubs.
Should Liverpool slip up against Qarabag, the mathematics become significantly more complicated. A draw would leave them on 16 points, requiring favourable results from at least four of the nine teams currently between sixth and 16th place (PSG, Newcastle, Sporting CP, Barcelona, Manchester City, Atletico Madrid, Atalanta, Inter Milan, and Juventus).
A defeat would be even more precarious, potentially dropping Liverpool outside the top eight entirely depending on how other results fall.
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