Chelsea have put themselves in a strong position in the Champions League following their underwhelming 1-0 win against Pafos.
Liam Rosenior has guided his side to a place in the top eight of the group stages, a feat which looked very difficult to achieve when Enzo Maresca was still in charge of the club.
Everyone at Stamford Bridge will be well aware that they need to up their game if they are to defeat Antonio Conte’s side next week, who are fighting for their lives in this competition.
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The Serie A giants need a result to reach the knockout stages, whereas a win for Chelsea would almost certainly see them finish in the top eight.
UEFA Champions League 2022/23 Round of 16 Draw
Photo by Kristian Skeie UEFA/UEFA via Getty Images
Chelsea would be better off not beating Napoli in final Champions League group stage game
On paper, this would be the desired result. It would allow them to skip the play-off stage and go straight into the Round of 16.
However, the way UEFA’s rules work is that finishing seventh or eighth in the table would likely set up a quarter-final with the side who finish first or second.
At this stage, Arsenal and Bayern Munich look the most likely to achieve this, two sides who have gotten the better of Chelsea already this season.
Defeat against Napoli would likely leave a Round of 16 tie against one of those two teams, not to mention a difficult play-off tie that could pose Rosenior a serious problem.
This leaves the draw on Wednesday, a result that can be expected to leave the Blues in 13th or 14th in the table.
Chelsea Manager, Liam Rosenior applauds the supporters after the UEFA Champions League 2025/26 League Phase MD7 match between Chelsea FC and Pafos FC
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Chelsea would much rather draw than win vs Napoli
If this happens, a play-off tie against the side in 19th or 20th awaits, however the Round of 16 tie will be against the side in third or fourth, rather than Arsenal and Bayern.
At the moment, those sides are Real Madrid and Liverpool, with the latter already falling victim to the Blues this season thanks to Estevao Willian’s late goal.
The potential quarter-final would also avoid the two group leaders, and instead likely be against the sides who finish fifth and sixth. As things stand, those two sides are Tottenham and PSG.
Both times Chelsea have won the Champions League, they have not been the favourites on paper, and the same can be said about their efforts this season.
However, both times they have completed this, they have changed managers midway through the season, and Rosenior will be hoping the trend continues with him at the helm.
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