Liverpool are close to securing their place in the Champions League last 16 - but what could happen after that?
A detailed view of the card of Liverpool FC
Liverpool are in the pot for the Champions League draw(Image: Kristian Skeie - UEFA/UEFA via Getty Images)
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Fourth in the Premier League, fourth in the Champions League. But while their domestic position continues to cause consternation among supporters, Liverpool's standing in Europe is being far more enthusiastically received.
An impressive 3-0 win at Marseille on Wednesday night moved the Reds on to 15 points from their seven games and on the brink of securing direction qualification to the last 16.
Arne Slot's side already knew before a ball was kicked in the south of France that results elsewhere on Tuesday had meant they were guaranteed at the very least a place in the top 24 and a play-off berth.
However, given a schedule of nine games in January, the Reds would sooner avoid playing a two-legged tie in February to give themselves a better chance of resting legs ahead of the remainder of the season.
Where can Liverpool finish?
For Liverpool, the task is simple: beat Qarabag at home next Wednesday in their final league stage game and a place in the last 16 is assured.
The Reds would also be one of the leading seeds, although it would take a major turnaround in goal difference to overhaul Bayern Munich in second place.
It means Liverpool will almost certainly finish third - should Real Madrid not win - or fourth in the table if they defeat Azerbaijan champions Qarabag.
With the Reds two points clear of ninth-placed Barcelona, there is a chance a draw or even a defeat may not prevent them from finishing inside the top eight. However, given only two points separate Tottenham Hotspur in fifth and Juventus in 15th, it seems likely a loss next week would see Liverpool drop into the play-offs.
What will happen next?
The teams that finish ninth to 24th go into a two-legged play-off in February, the eight winners from which then join the top eight of the league stage in the round of 16 in March. Clubs who end up between 25th and 36th are eliminated.
The top eight are seeded in the draw based on their position which, in basic terms, means the top two can't face each other until the final, and can't face a top-four rival until the semi-finals.
UEFA use a set template for the draw with only minor variations. For example, a Liverpool win over Qarabag would make little difference to their route to the final given the teams who finish third and fourth are in the same draw bracket.
They have only four possible opponents in the round of 16 - the teams in the two play-off games involving those who finish in 13th, 14th, 19th and 20th.
At present in those places are Atalanta, Inter Milan, Marseille and Bayer Leverkusen. However, the concertinaed standings mean those clubs are odds-on to change come the final table.
What else should we know about the draw?
Well, the days of country protection are gone. So conceivably Liverpool could be paired in the last 16 against a team from the Premier League which, as it stands, could only be Manchester City.
And there is also nothing to stop the Reds being drawn against one of the teams they faced in the league stage, although Eintracht Frankfurt are already out and Real Madrid are presently in the top eight.
It's also worth noting that by finishing in the top four, the Reds would have home advantage in the second leg of the round of 16 and a possible quarter-final, but not the semi-final.
This is all very well. But what about qualifying for next season's Champions League?
Liverpool will obviously earn a place in the competition next season should they go on to win the final in Budapest in May.
And, regardless, they may not even have to finish in the top four in the Premier League. UEFA offers extra places in the Champions League - officially termed European Performance Spots - to the two countries who, based on average club coefficients, have performed the best in European competition that season.
England were awarded one such berth last term from which Newcastle United benefited. And the Premier League is on course to do so again given the current good record of their clubs in Europe, with Germany, Spain and, perhaps surprisingly, Poland also in contention.