The 2025/26 UEFA Champions League is heating up, with Arsenal leading the pack with projections as favorites to win their first-ever title. The Champions League projections from experts show the Gunners with a strong chance of glory in Budapest on May 30.
Arsenal’s Dominant Run
Arsenal top the league phase with a perfect record. They have earned 21 points from seven games. They have won all matches. Moreover, it also includes a 3-1 victory over Inter Milan. This puts them on track for automatic knockout qualification. The Opta gives them a 93.9% chance of finishing first overall. Their defense is rock-solid, and stars like Gabriel Jesus and Viktor Gyokeres are scoring freely.
Arsenal are by far and away the favourites to lift the Champions League this season.
Who do you think can or will stop them from winning Europe's premier club competition? pic.twitter.com/p81UbJAslx
— The Athletic | Football (@TheAthleticFC) January 22, 2026
Why Arsenal Leads the Odds
Projections peg Arsenal’s winning probability at 31% from The Athletic, 22.2% from others, and 18.09% from Opta. Bookmakers list them as top favorites, ahead of Bayern Munich and Manchester City. Mikel Arteta‘s squad depth and big-game wins make them stand out. Fans on Reddit agree, calling Arsenal the clear candidate based on stats.
Tough Competition Ahead
Bayern Munich follows with 18-19% chances, boasting 18 points. Manchester City (14.3%), PSG (12.5%), and Real Madrid (10%) are close. Liverpool’s improvement puts them at 9.1%. The race is tight, with just points separating mid-table teams.
Arsenal are the BIGGEST favorites to win the QUADRUPLE this season! 🏆🏆🏆🏆
• 1st in the Premier League
• 1st in the Champions League
• Semi Finalists in the Carabao Cup
• Fourth Round of the FA Cup pic.twitter.com/Ael1Fm5Tyj
— The Touchline | 𝐓 (@TouchlineX) January 21, 2026
Path to Budapest Glory
However, upsets are inherent in the Champions League. Defending champions PSG, with a 6% win probability, remain dangerous despite a mixed league phase (54% for top-eight finish). Real Madrid and Barcelona, each at around 4-8%, could surge in knockouts with their experience. Liverpool’s 8% chance reflects recent form, but injuries or fatigue might derail them.
What Lies Ahead ?
For Arsenal, maintaining momentum in the final matchday is key. A top finish not only boosts morale but positions them favorably for the draw. While projections favor the Gunners to end their long wait for European silverware, the tournament’s unpredictability means every tie is a potential banana skin. Arsenal fans are dreaming big, but glory in Budapest will demand perfection against Europe’s elite.
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