The Minnesota Timberwolves are reeling. What else is new?
After compiling the best record in the NBA from Thanksgiving through mid-January and climbing into fourth place in the Western Conference, the Timberwolves have lost four straight winnable games. Now, they are on the outside of the playoff picture, looking in.
Anthony Edwards missed out on starting his first All-Star game because Deni Avdija got more fan votes than him, causing Victor Wembanyama to win a tiebreaker for the fifth spot. Tim Connelly and the front office also have a huge decision to make as the February 5 trade deadline rapidly approaches.
Edwards is still smiling through all the ups and downs of his sixth season in the NBA. He’s having his best season to date, averaging a career high 29.9 points per game while shooting career highs from the field (49.9 percent) and from three (41.3 percent). He’ll be an All-Star for the fourth time when the coaches announce their reserve picks later in the month.
Despite Ant’s career year, the Wolves can’t consistently cash in on his MVP efforts.
Anthony Edwards enters Thursday night’s game against the Chicago Bulls fourth in the NBA in points per game. He’s eclipsed 40 points seven times already this season. But the Wolves are having trouble capitalizing when Ant goes off. They’re only 2-5 in games in which Edwards scores 40 or more points.
They lost to the Spurs even though Anthony Edwards went nuclear for a career-high 55 points, scoring 39 in the second half and 26 in the fourth quarter in a furious comeback attempt that fell short. Ant scored 44 in the Christmas Night overtime loss to the Denver Nuggets.
He poured in another 43 points against the Sacramento Kings in another overtime loss in November. Edwards also had 41 points during the meltdown in Phoenix, and he scored another 40 in a three-point loss to the Suns in December.
However, the Timberwolves managed to win with Ant’s 44-point outburst against the New Orleans Pelicans. They also won the season opener against the Portland Trail Blazers, with Edwards scoring 41 points. The Wolves are 20-8 when Ant scores fewer than 40 points in a game, and 5-4 in games he hasn’t played.
The losing record when Ant goes off is a new phenomenon this season. Ant scored 40 or more points nine times last season. The Wolves were 7-2 in those games. They were 4-0 when he hit 40 the year before. And 4-2 in Ant’s six 40-point games across his first three seasons. That’s 15-4 when Ant crosses the 40-point threshold in his first five seasons, but 2-5 this year.
So what gives? Why is a team vying for its fifth straight playoff appearance seemingly worse when its best player has a great offensive performance?
Some of the losses can be attributed to Ant’s scoring master classes coming against some good opponents. Four of the five losses this season have come against teams that are ahead of the Wolves in the standings: Denver, San Antonio, and Phoenix twice.
Last year, Edwards mostly got his points against bad teams. He racked up 40-point games against the Utah Jazz twice, the Washington Commanders, the Memphis Grizzlies, the Phoenix Suns, and the Chicago Bulls. The two losses came against the Cleveland Cavaliers, who won 64 games, and the upstart Detroit Pistons.
Still, the Wolves also won big when Ant scored 40. They beat the Jazz by 26 and 11 points, the Bulls by 19, and the Suns by 18. And enjoyed double-digit victories over the Grizzlies, Bulls, Rockets, and Wizards.
This year, Ant’s 40 pieces are coming in much closer games. The largest margin of victory of any game in which Anthony Edwards has scored 40 or more points this season is a seven-point victory against the Pelicans.
You could also argue that this season, Ant is playing a little more selfishly in his high-scoring outings. He’s averaging three assists in his 40-point outings this season. Last year, he averaged 4 assists per 40-point game. Edwards has been efficient with his scoring. His worst shooting percentage in a 40-point game was 14-28 in the season opener against the Trail Blazers.
The real glaring difference is that the defense this year has been nowhere near as good as last year, when Edwards went off. In Ant’s 40-point games this year, the Timberwolves have given up between 108 and 142 points with an average of 123.2 points per game. Last year, they gave up 111.6 points per game when Ant scored 40. It is in line with Minnesota’s declining defense.
They had the sixth-best defense in the NBA, giving up 110.8 points per 100 possessions. This season, they’re 10th with a 112.9 defensive rating. Ant’s his own worst enemy in that regard, getting back-cut into oblivion and falling asleep while defending the strong side corner a few times every game. He can still get up in a ball handler’s grill and lock down anyone when he wants to, but he’s not always helping himself out on the offensive end.
Ant will continue to score at will in the second half of the season. The Timberwolves need to figure out how to complement his scoring outbursts, or they will continue to waste a historic offensive season.