The Portland Trail Blazers kicked off their season losing their head coach to scandal the morning after opening night. The shock upheaval ignited instant turmoil just hours after the playing group put up a gallant, though still losing, effort against the more advanced Minnesota Timberwolves.
Assistant Coach Tiago Splitter was thrust into the interim role after a successful playing career and stints as an NBA assistant and one season leading Paris Basketball to the their European title. Suffice to say, most Blazers fans remembered the big Brazilian from his days on the court, not commanding from the sidelines.
For me, whoever was in charge, my preseason expectations were on-court improvement after four years in the lottery doldrums. Not necessarily a ridiculous soar up the standings, but at least an attempt at the Western Conference Play-In tournament and improvement on last season’s 36-46 record.
While the Blazers performance was always going to be key to the factor to its final standing, the franchise was also going to be at the mercy of other teams competing in the always-deep West. Today we examine where they stand half way through the campaign and which teams they may be jostling with come late March and early April.
Form and injuries
Aside from an obvious rise up the standings, my preseason expectations focused on growth from the young group and overt cohesion after largely the same playing group was returned from last season.
Unfortunately, Scoot Henderson has yet to play and Yang Hansen is (hopefully) an unpolished gem but the rest of the troupe have shown improvement in one way or another. Shaedon Sharpe is working on eradicating the defensive lapses while improving his shot selection and efficiency.
Donovan Clingan’s body is ready to play starting-level minutes, while providing a real presence on the offensive end of the floor. Toumani Camara is roughly the same but looks a little more confident with the ball in his hands, especially when he can rest a little more on defense.
The initial hope was that Deni Avdija would take another leap. He’s out-performed all on-court expectations, solidifying himself as an All Star, near All-NBA, talent. His unique combination of size, skills and speed have made him near impossible to defend without while maintaining up-level defense on the other end.
Aside from his stint on the sidelines, Jrue Holiday has served as the same savvy leader that helped the Milwaukee Bucks and Boston Celtics to championships in 2021 and 2024. Jerami Grant has returned to the form he showed in his first two years in Portland, not to mention contributions from two-way guys Sidy Cissoko and Caleb Love.
Unfortunately, it’s been injuries that have had the biggest hinder with Toumani Camara the only Blazers to suit up in all 46 games. Extended absences from Henderson, Holiday, Grant, Matisse Thybulle, Blake Wesley and Kris Murray, not to mention Damian Lillard, could have consequently cost the franchise a hand full of wins and perhaps a higher place on the standings.
The standings
This is where it gets interesting. The Blazers currently sit 23-23 and nineth in the West — 2 games behind the Golden State Warriors, 4.5 games behind the Minnesota Timberwolves, Phoenix Suns and Los Angeles Lakers and 5.5 games behind the Houston Rockets.
From below they should also be mindful of the Los Angeles Clippers, who are 2 games behind. The Dallas Mavericks and Memphis Grizzlies are not entirely out of the Play-In picture but both franchises could be re-focusing on the lottery after next month’s trade deadline.
As far as strength of schedule goes, the Blazers have the league’s easiest run home with multiple games against the Indiana Pacers, Washington Wizards, Brooklyn Nets and Utah Jazz. Conversely, the Warriors, Suns and Wolves face the fourth, fifth and seventh hardest runs, the Lakers have the nineth trickiest while the Clippers and the Rockets have the 21st and 22nd hardest remaining campaigns.
The Rockets are probably out of reach and I’d suggest the Wolves probably makes a late-season run as well. But the Lakers, Suns and Warriors are interesting.
The Lakers seem unconvincing without Austin Reaves and unsurprisingly, Deandre Ayton wasn’t the saviour the purple and gold brigade were hoping for. They’re also relying on a 41-year-old LeBron James — I mean the man is four months older than me and I consider myself elderly. The Suns lost their star Devin Booker to an ankle injury last night with his length of convalescence yet unknown.
Finally, the Warriors. Steph Curry is somehow still performing like vintage Steph Curry. But the franchise lost Jimmy Butler to an ACL injury last week and Draymond Green seems more intent on arguing with referees and committing flagrant fouls than contributing to winning. There’s also the Jonathan Kuminga saga, which may or may not be resolved by the deadline. Outside of that, they have either ageing or middling talent and a heck of a lot of question marks.
I’m still wary of the Clippers if Kawhi Leonard can stay on the court but if he can’t, I don’t think the Los Angeles franchise has enough to catch the Blazers.
As for Portland, assuming Matisse Thybulle, Kris Murray, Blake Wesley and maybe Henderson return in the next few weeks, the Blazers boast real depth thanks to the experience the deep benched has gained in recent months.
We also need to factor in what General Manager Joe Cronin decides to do before February 5’s NBA Trade Deadline. Cronin will have decisions to make on the futures of Cissoko and Love who are fast approaching their 50-game limit. Whether he waives other guys or makes a lop-sided deal, something will need to be done.
Conclusion
Unless something unforeseen happens, it’s unlikely the Blazers finish below Play-In picture. If they can get all the guys, not named Damian Lillard, back on the court over the next month they could even set their sights higher, potentially testing the Lakers, Suns and Warriors. The three franchises face serious questions and pretty tough schedules over the next 12 weeks, not to mention injuries to key personnel.
The Clippers aren’t going away either but much of their fate relies on a 34-year-old injury-prone forward.
Right now the Blazers probably finish somewhere between sixth and 10th but if the injury luck swings back in Portland’s favor, we could be looking at the upper end of that range and a non-Play-In playoff seed. This is all thanks to cohesion and the play of Deni Avdija which have changed the game and the expectations for this young squad.