The Spurs have gone 8-5 without Devin Vassell. Is Vassell’s absence the main reason for their recent (relative) struggles, or are there other important factors that have been overlooked?
Marilyn Dubinski: I wouldn’t say he is THE reason, but it was certainly a contributing factor. A big problem for a while was all three guards (De’Aaron Fox, Stephon Castle and Dylan Harper) were all in a shooting slump at the same time, and they were missing that relief valve that they could pass out to, either to shoot a three or create his own shot. Vassell is one of a few players on the team who can do both, so hopefully his return will help unclog the offense when it gets bogged down, leading to more consistency.
Mark Barrington: It’s definitely a factor, but there’s more going on. They miss having shot creators in the starting lineup, which results in a lot of Castle drives into a crowd at the basket. Steph is improving a bit on passing the ball out of a crowd, but he still ends up swallowed up at the hoop more often than he should be. I think the biggest factor is probably fatigue, which could also partially be due to Devin’s absence, but mostly because they haven’t had more than one day between games in January, except for two occasions near the beginning of the month and a few at the end.
Devon Birdsong: I think Vassell’s absence has simply brought focus to how thin the shooting on the roster is. In my opinion, their non-shooting guards become a much bigger issue with someone like Vassell out. I think it would be the same issue if Champagnie or Barnes were out for an extended stretch. I’m pretty confident that at least one of Castle and Harper will improve in that arena, but it has placed a lot of focus on the shooting that the Spurs need at other positions on the roster. Power-forward most of all. I think the addition of those two young guards may actually have been the kiss of death for poor Jeremy Sochan. The Spurs could have adjusted to his lack of shooting if those two could both shoot reliably from long-distance, but with all three of them in the fold, one is going to get left out, and by default, that’s probably Sochan. It’s not a commentary on his potential as much as it is an argument that the other two just have more potential than he does. Really tough break.
Jesus Gomez: Several players having a slump at the same time played a part in some of the losses. The grueling schedule was also a factor, and the Spurs dropped games to the Rockets, Thunder, and Timberwolves in that stretch, all great teams. But Vassell has definitely been missed. He’s one of the few guys on the team whose shot defenses respect, so even when he doesn’t get touches, he’s helping on offense. Plus, he looked friskier on defense before his injury. The Spurs need all the shooting they can get, and every team can use a wing who can defend and create in a pinch. While he might not always do all that consistently, Vassell has a skill set that not many others on the roster have.
The Spurs’ four regular starters with Champagnie in Vassell’s place have outscored opponents by a preposterous 21.6 points per 100 possessions, more than doubling the numbers of the four other starters plus Vassell. Should the Spurs consider bringing Vassell off the bench?
Dubinski: I don’t think the sample size of Vassell plus the other four main starters is large enough to take too seriously, considering the amount of time Wemby has missed or come off the bench. I also don’t think we can sit here and claim Julian Champagnie is THAT much better of a defender than Vassell to the point that it’s worth benching him. None of this is to say Vassell has to start or Champagnie has to return to the bench, but I’m not ready to take this stat too seriously until we see more of the team completely healthy.
Barrington: That’s a no from me. I definitely think they can bring Champagnie off the bench and find him minutes by staggering the minutes of the other starters. I’m a big fan of Harrison Barnes, but he would probably benefit from playing fewer minutes early in the game and saving his energy for crunch time, which would free up more Sam Penny* minutes. I don’t think it’s that significant who is in the starting lineup, so long as Julian plays 25 minutes or more, which is about how much the starters play. Keldon Johnson has been playing as many minutes as the starters, and I think that Julian has earned a similar spot in the rotation.
* I watch the games with closed captioning turned on, and that’s how his name is spelled in the closed captions.
Birdsong: Taking into consideration his current slump, I think it’s actually Barnes who should probably go to the bench for now. Champagnie’s been playing great defense, and he’s also been going off with regularity, and Vassell’s defense and shooting have also been important in that lineup. Both of them on the court would make up for any loss of Barnes. Realistically, though, Vassell is probably coming off the bench as the Spurs ease him in, because that’s just how they do things. I’d really like to see them stagger Castle more, so that you can get the occasional Fox-Vassell-Champagnie-Barnes-Wemby lineup, because I think that could be lethal, but I’ll be happy just to have another shooter back in the game.
Gomez: Lineup numbers are tricky because the Spurs tend to play a lot of different units even when healthy and a lot more when not, so groups rarely get enough minutes to allow for definitive conclusions. I do think there’s something to the starters plus Champagnie, though. It adds more size, and Champagnie is a low-usage player who doesn’t need the ball, which fits the rest of the unit. Vassell off the bench could get opportunities to create while also bringing a steadying perimeter presence next to the Harper-Castle duo. But there’s just not enough evidence to suggest he should come off the bench permanently. We’ll know more as the games go by.
Carter Bryant has been showing some signs of progress recently. Should the Spurs play him more minutes even with Vassell back, or should they continue to bring him along slowly in the small bench role he currently plays?
Dubinski: He’s just now starting to look comfortable as an NBA player, but I was surprised it took them as long as it did to send him to the G League for some development, and then it was just for one game. That being said, if he truly is turning a corner, there’s no reason to halt his progress. What they’re doing now is fine, with about 10 min per game, but I also wouldn’t hesitate to pull him if he’s having an off night.
Barrington: I’m a big fan of Carter Bryant. I think they should play him until he gets tired every single game that remains in the regular season. You can see already how much he’s improved in limited minutes, and I think he’s going to be a really good player. The way you find out about that is by playing him. Of course, Coach Mitch needs to hold him accountable and pull him from the game for instruction when he makes mistakes, which could be quite often, but he’s growing by leaps and bounds, and I just want to watch him play. Even when he messes up, it’s fun to watch. When playoff time rolls around, the coaching staff could limit his minutes, but it all depends on how much he develops in the remaining half of the season. He has very little experience playing basketball at a high level, and he’s probably a year or two away from being anywhere near his potential, but he’s going to get there quicker if he can gain experience on the court.
Birdsong: The basketball IQ on that kid is high, which is hardly a surprise based on what the Spurs draft for, and I think he’s starting to acclimate quickly after adjusting to the speed and spacing of the pros, but I don’t think forcing more minutes is in the cards. He’s averaging 13 minutes over the last 5 games, and I think that’s the right amount, considering Harper is averaging 21 minutes. It looks like he’s soaking up some of the minutes that Olynyk and Sochan would be getting, and that’s the right call if you’re not going to play them, unless more size is needed. Barring an injury, I say let him get used to playing in those spurts. If Barnes or Champagnie goes down, though, I think he’s the one who should see the uptick in minutes (unless Sochan’s going to get some run).
Gomez: I’ll admit Bryant has been better, but he’s gone from eliciting “why is Carter Bryant playing?” responses to being semi-competent in low minutes. It’s not meant to be too strong a criticism of him, since he’s extremely young and raw, with limited experience playing high-level basketball, as Mark pointed out. It was overly optimistic to expect him to be good as a rookie. The other problem is that even if the coaching staff wanted to expand his role, it would be tough to do so because the Spurs have a solid nine-man rotation when everyone is healthy. So who gets fewer minutes? There might be some spare if they bring Vassell along slowly, but I don’t see how they can give Bryant more playing time without making themselves worse.