Arsenal down Chelsea 2–0 at Stamford Bridge; Enderby strikes twice after 90 for Liverpool; United thrash Villa 4–1; West Ham steal it at Leicester; City need late Shaw goal; Brighton win at Everton.
Overview
Gameweek 13 delivered 16 goals and clean sheets. Late drama, missed chances, and clinical finishing defined a weekend where favourites had to fight harder than expected.
The headline came from Stamford Bridge: Arsenal beat Chelsea 2–0 to claim London derby bragging rights. Chelsea created five big chances and missed every one of them – their worst finishing display of the season.
Liverpool finally got off the mark in the league thanks to Mia Enderby’s stoppage-time double against Spurs. After 90 minutes of frustration, two goals in added time sparked scenes at St Helens.
Manchester United delivered the most emphatic win of the weekend, putting four past Aston Villa despite the game being level at half-time. Three goals in seven second-half minutes ended the contest.
Elsewhere, West Ham pulled off a classic smash-and-grab at Leicester, winning despite being outshot and outpossessed. And Manchester City, massive favourites against London City, needed Khadija Shaw’s 86th-minute finish to escape with all three points.
It was a weekend where scorelines told only half the story.
Match-by-Match Breakdown
Everton 0–1 Brighton
Venue: Goodison Park (Liverpool) | Attendance: TBC
A match defined by missed opportunities. Everton dominated possession at 59% – their highest figure of the season – and created three big chances, but couldn’t convert any of them. Brighton soaked up the pressure, struck clinically through Jelena Cankovic on 41 minutes (assist Kiko Seike), then Chiamaka Nnadozie shut the door for the remaining 50 minutes.
Key stats
Everton’s rare attacking intent – This was uncharacteristically ambitious from Everton. Their 59% possession is 14.5 percentage points above their season average (44.5%). They also created 3 big chances – just one short of their season high – but missed all three. That wasteful finishing proved costly.
Clinical Brighton – Brighton won despite being second-best on most metrics. Their 0.87 xG was below their season average (1.39), and their 8 shots fell short of their usual 11.3 per match. But Cankovic needed just a 0.18 xG chance to score the winner – that’s ruthless efficiency when it mattered.
Nnadozie’s masterclass – Brighton’s goalkeeper was the standout player in the match. Everton generated 1.26 xGOT from their two shots on target in the second half alone, but Nnadozie kept everything out. Her performance was the difference between a Brighton win and an Everton comeback.
Retrospection
Our prematch model favoured Brighton (48%) with 0–1, 1–1, and 0–0 the most likely scorelines. The 0–1 result was spot on. What the model didn’t anticipate was Everton’s possession dominance.
Chelsea 0–2 Arsenal
Venue: Stamford Bridge (London) | Attendance: 30,545
Chelsea created more, generated more xG, and won the set-piece battle – but lost the match. The Blues carved out five big chances and missed every single one, managing just a single shot on target from 18 attempts. Arsenal, ruthlessly efficient by contrast, struck twice in six second-half minutes through Beth Mead (55’, assist Alessia Russo) and Mariona Caldentey (61’, assist Mead) to claim the derby spoils.
Key stats
Chelsea’s finishing crisis –The xG told one story (Chelsea 1.85 vs Arsenal 1.64), but the scoreboard told another. Chelsea created five big chances – and missed all – a new season high for wastefulness. They also landed just one shot on target from 18 attempts, their lowest mark of the season. Even more damning, their xGOT (expected goals on target) was only 0.04, indicating that most efforts were blocked, off-target, or posed little threat to Anneke Borbe.
Arsenal’s clinical edge –The Gunners converted 1.54 xGOT from 1.64 xG, putting almost every meaningful chance on target. Chelsea had more opportunities but couldn't find the target when it mattered – Arsenal made their moments count.
Mead’s masterclass – Beth Mead was the standout player with a goal and assist and 3 chances created in 69 minutes. Her linkup play with Russo and Caldentey was devastating in that six-minute spell that decided the game.
Retrospection
Our prematch model made Chelsea slight favourites (38%) with 1–0, 1–1, and 0–0 the most likely scorelines – all low-scoring, tight outcomes. The 0–2 Arsenal win was outside those predictions, and the underlying numbers suggest Chelsea were unlucky: they lost the finishing battle comprehensively despite winning the chance creation one. Sometimes football doesn’t follow the script.
Aston Villa 1–4 Manchester United
Venue: Villa Park (Birmingham) | Attendance: 4,501
A seven-minute blitz in the second half turned a tight contest into a rout. Manchester United took the lead through Julia Zigiotti Olme's strike from a corner (35'), but Kirsty Hanson quickly pulled Villa level (37'). After the break United found another gear. Elisabeth Terland (72’), Jessica Park (75’), and Hanna Lundkvist (79’) scored in quick succession to seal the most emphatic display of the weekend.
Key stats
United’s clinical finishing –Manchester United scored four goals from just 1.60 expected goals (xG), massively overperforming their expected output. The combined xG of their four goals was only 0.57. Olme’s opener came directly from a corner, valued at just 0.01 xG – meaning it would be scored only once in a hundred attempts – while Terland’s goal was rated at 0.05. This was ruthless finishing from low-probability positions.
Villa’s shot volume without quality – Aston Villa put 7 of their 11 shots on target – an unusually high conversion rate for them – but generated only 0.59 xG total. They created zero big chances, their worst output of the season. The shots were on target, but from poor positions.
Park’s devastating impact – Jessica Park was at the heart of United’s seven-minute blitz. She finished coolly for the third goal on 75 minutes, then turned provider four minutes later to set up Lundkvist for the fourth. One goal, one assist – Park’s quality in the final third killed the contest
Retrospection
The model gave United a slight edge (50%) with 0–1, 0–2, and 1–1 the most likely scorelines. The outcome was correct, however, the 1–4 scoreline was well beyond expectations. United’s finishing efficiency (4 goals from 1.60 xG) was exceptional – this wasn’t a demolition built on dominance, it was clinical execution of chances that, statistically, shouldn’t have all gone in.
Leicester City 1–2 West Ham United
Venue: King Power Stadium (Leicester) | Attendance: TBC
The ultimate smash-and-grab. Leicester dominated territory like never before – 58% possession, their highest so far this season – and peppered West Ham’s goal with 14 shots. But the Hammers scored from two improbable positions: Verena Hanshaw’s curling free-kick (34’, 0.07 xG) and Shekiera Martinez’s sharp finish (63’, 0.04 xG, assist Viviane Asseyi). Eva Nyström’s own goal in the 84th minute gave Leicester late hope, but it was too little, too late.
Key stats
Leicester’s best performance... in a loss – The Foxes’ 58% possession smashed their previous season high (49%), and their 14 shots equalled their best single-match tally. Their 24 touches in the opposition box dwarfed West Ham’s 6. On almost every metric, Leicester controlled this game – except the scoreboard.
Identical xG, opposite outcomes – Both sides finished with exactly 0.54 xG, yet West Ham scored twice from open play while Leicester managed just an own goal consolation. The Hammers converted 0.11 combined xG into 2 goals – that’s ruthless overperformance from minimal opportunities.
West Ham’s defensive resilience – Facing sustained pressure, West Ham made 39 clearances and 23 tackles. They won 56% of ground duels despite being pinned back. This was a backs-to-the-wall display that yielded maximum points.
Retrospection
The model had this as a coin-flip (35% Leicester, 30% draw, 35% West Ham) with 1–1, 1–0, and 0–1 the likeliest scorelines. The result aligned with the model’s view that this could go either way – but the manner of victory was extraordinary. West Ham won despite being outplayed on almost every statistical measure, proving that football doesn’t always respect possession dominance.
Liverpool 2–0 Tottenham Hotspur
Venue: St Helens Stadium (St Helens, Merseyside) | Attendance: TBC
The most dramatic finish of the weekend. For 89 minutes, Liverpool battered Tottenham’s goal – 18 shots, 3 off the woodwork, 2.14 xG – and had nothing to show for it. Then Mia Enderby happened. The substitute struck twice in injury time (90+4’ and 90+5’) to snatch all three points in the most Liverpool way imaginable.
Key stats
Liverpool’s best attacking display – by far – The Reds’ 18 shots smashed their previous season high (12), and their 2.14 xG was 37% higher than their best single-match output all season (1.56). They created 4 big chances – another season high – and recorded 35 touches in Spurs’ box. This was a different Liverpool.
Woodwork woes – Liverpool hit the frame three times, beating their previous single-match high of two. Combined with 4 saves from the Spurs keeper, that’s 7 blocked goal opportunities before the late breakthrough.
Spurs’ possession mirage – Tottenham controlled the ball (56%) but did almost nothing with it: 5 shots, 1 on target, 0.73 xG. Their 11 touches in Liverpool’s box tell the story – this possession was sterile, kept safely away from danger while Liverpool attacked in waves.
Retrospection
The model gave Spurs a slight edge (39%) with 0–1, 0–0, and 1–1 the likeliest scorelines – all low-scoring affairs. The 2–0 Liverpool win defied those expectations, but the underlying numbers demanded goals. Liverpool generated nearly 3x the xG and should have been out of sight before half-time. The result finally aligned with the performance – it just took until the 94th minute.
London City Lionesses 1–2 Manchester City
Venue: CopperJax Community Stadium (London) | Attendance: 3,418
The Lionesses gave title-chasing City one of their toughest tests of the season. Despite being camped in their own half for long stretches (32% possession), London City created more big chances than the visitors – and nearly pulled off a stunning upset. Kerolin opened for City on 11 minutes (assist Vivianne Miedema), but Freya Godfrey’s lightning counter-attack levelled it on 68’ (assist Kosovare Asllani). It took Khadija Shaw’s towering header from a corner in the 86th minute to finally break the Lionesses’ resistance.
Key stats
London City’s big-chance heartbreak – The Lionesses created 3 big chances to City’s 2 – and missed all three. They also hit the woodwork twice. Combined, that’s 5 near-misses that could have changed this game entirely. For context, their 1.51 xG was higher than City’s season average xG conceded (0.76).
City’s lowest output in months – Man City’s 15 shots and 1.97 xG were both well below their season averages (19.67 shots, 2.80 xG). The Lionesses’ back line, making 42 clearances and 9 blocks, made City work for everything. This wasn’t the procession the 72% pre-match win probability suggested.
Shaw delivers when it matters – Shaw made sure the hard-work paid off with the decisive finish in the 86th minute. Her predatory instincts in the box – finding space when it mattered most – finally broke the deadlock.
Retrospection
The model made City overwhelming favourites (72%) with 0–2, 0–1, and 0–3 the likeliest scorelines. The 1–2 result was closer than any of those predictions, reflecting London City’s spirited display. The Lionesses arguably deserved a point based on the chances they created – this was a case of City grinding out a win through set-piece quality rather than open-play dominance.
Expected Points – MW13: Same order, shifting margins
There were no changes in xPts rank from MW12 to MW13, but the underlying numbers moved sharply. Liverpool posted the biggest week-on-week gain (+2.29 xPts), with Manchester United also making a notable jump (+2.10 xPts). At the top, Manchester City (+1.71), Chelsea (+1.52) and Arsenal (+1.26) all strengthened their hold – meaning the table stayed frozen, but the pressure inside it changed.
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