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Chelsea’s chances of beating Napoli and qualifying for Champions League Round of 16 ranked by Opta

Chelsea have made an impressive start under Liam Rosenior, however the new manager is set for his biggest test yet in the Champions League this week.

The Blues make the trip to Italy to take on Napoli in their final group stage game, where Rosenior will be up against former manager Antonio Conte.

A win will almost certainly guarantee Chelsea’s place in the top eight, automatically booking their place in the Round of 16 and avoiding a two-legged play-off.

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He should be fit for Napoli vs Chelsea

Romelu Lukaku's record against Chelsea

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Cole Palmer is set to be fit for the Blues, leaving Rosenior a tough decision to make in attack after star performances from Estevao Willian and Joao Pedro against Crystal Palace.

Chelsea FC v Pafos FC - UEFA Champions League 2025/26 League Phase MD7

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Chelsea’s chances of beating Napoli in crucial Champions League game

After already tasting defeat in Italy this season at the hands of Atalanta, no Chelsea fans will be taking their opponents lightly, even taking into account they could eliminate them from the Champions League in the process.

Opta have handed Chelsea a 40.5% chance of securing the victory they need in Naples, making them slight favourites for the game.

They see Napoli picking up the win as a 33.8% chance, while a draw comes in at 25.7% likely to happen.

The fixture pile-up has been extreme for Chelsea this season. Only Crystal Palace have played more games than them in England so far, and avoiding two extra games would certainly be a boost.

Romelu Lukaku of SSC Napoli celebrates after scoring

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Chelsea would be better not beating Napoli

When looking at potential routes to the latter stages of the Champions League, there is an argument that Chelsea would benefit from not actually beating Napoli on Wednesday.

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The position the Blues would finish if they draw would likely see them avoid both Arsenal and Bayern Munich for the foreseeable future in the competition, even if it does involve playing an extra two games.

Obviously, this will not be in Rosenior’s thinking. The manager is pushing to keep up his very impressive start to life at Stamford Bridge.

Chelsea fans began to show signs of being won over by Rosenior in the away end at Selhurst Park, but a victory against a Premier League-winning manager at Chelsea would be a great indicator that he is the real deal.

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