Wednesday night brings the league phase of the UEFA Champions League to a close, with all 18 matches kicking off at the same time and very little settled. FC Barcelona go into the final round ninth on 13 points, hosting Copenhagen at the Spotify Camp Nou, and the uncomfortable truth is that a win alone may not secure direct passage to the round of 16.
Eight teams sit on 13 points between sixth and thirteenth place, and the margins separating them are thin. Paris Saint-Germain and Newcastle are best positioned thanks to a +10 goal difference, followed by Chelsea on +6. Barcelona are next with +5, level with Sporting CP, while Manchester City (+4), Atlético de Madrid (+3) and Atalanta (+1) trail slightly behind.
One fixture guarantees movement. PSG and Newcastle meet in Paris, meaning at least one of them will drop points. If Barcelona beat Copenhagen, that alone would push them past the loser of that game. What happens elsewhere is where things start to get unpredictable.
Chelsea travel to Naples, Sporting visit Athletic Club at San Mamés, Manchester City welcome Galatasaray, Atlético host Bodø/Glimt and Atalanta are away to Union Saint-Gilloise. If those matches finish with similar scorelines, Barcelona’s position improves. If one of the teams behind them runs up a big win, the situation changes quickly.
Goal difference is decisive. A Sporting victory by a single goal more than Barcelona’s would be enough to edge past them. City would need a win by two more goals than Barça, Atlético by three, and Atalanta by five. A comfortable home win, even something like 3-0, would still leave Barcelona exposed if one of those sides delivers a heavy result of its own.
Hansi Flick has tried to strip the equation back to basics. “The main objective is to keep a clean sheet and win the match,” the Barcelona coach said ahead of the game. He made it clear the squad will not be distracted by other scorelines, saying, “We won’t look at the other matches. We have to focus on playing at our best level. It’s the Champions League, and the Champions League demands your best.”
That focus on defending reflects recent history. Barcelona have not kept a clean sheet in Europe since last season’s quarter-final first leg against Borussia Dortmund, a 4–0 win at home. Since then, they have conceded 23 goals across ten Champions League matches, seven of them this season. Flick underlined the need for caution against a Copenhagen side that also need points, noting, “We have to respect Copenhagen, because they need to win to reach the next round. We have to do our job, defend well and play at our best. It won’t be an easy match.”
There is also a theoretical route to catching teams above the 13-point cluster. Real Madrid and Liverpool are both on 15 points, Tottenham on 14, and none of the three are mathematically safe. Barcelona would need help there too, combined with their own victory, for that scenario to open up.
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* [Barcelona: UEFA Champions League](/barcelona-uefa-champions-league)