Arsenal are on course to secure top spot in the Champions League table and earn a favourable draw in the knockout stages as they bid to win the competition for the first time
Harry Brent Senior Sports Writer
07:00, 28 Jan 2026
Arsenal players celebrating vs Inter Milan
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Arsenal's easiest route to the Champions League final has been mapped out(Image: Getty)
Arsenal are soaring in the Champions League - but the fine line between heartbreak and glory could ultimately hinge on the draw for the knockout rounds. The Gunners boast a perfect record in the competition so far and need only a single point from their final group match against bottom club Kairat to secure first place.
Ending the group phase at the top could be crucial to Arsenal's ambitions of at last claiming the Champions League crown. Thanks to the tournament's tennis-style seeding format, teams with higher rankings are granted kinder draws, limiting the chance of an early clash with one of Europe's giants.
That said, last season served as a stark reminder of the dangers, when group-toppers Liverpool were paired with PSG in the last 16 and crashed out early. Arsenal will be keen to avoid repeating that scenario, although much will depend on how other fixtures play out in the final round. With that in mind, football.london has mapped out Arsenal's best-case-scenario pathway to the 2026 Champions League final.
First and foremost, Mikel Arteta's men must seal first place in their group. Arsenal currently lead the standings by three points and hold a healthier goal difference than second-placed Bayern Munich, meaning even an unexpected defeat to Kairat might not be enough to knock them off the top.
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Should Arsenal finish first, they would be positioned on the opposite half of the bracket to the second seed - expected to be Bayern, who sit three points ahead of third-placed Real Madrid - and would be unable to meet them before the final.
A recently introduced UEFA rule further underlines the importance of a strong group finish, as the top two seeds are assured home advantage in the second legs of their last-16, quarter-final and semi-final ties, a notable edge in high-pressure encounters.
Sides ending the group stage in the top eight positions advance straight to the round of 16, while teams ranked ninth through 24th must navigate a two-legged play-off. The play-off pairings are simple: ninth plays 24th, 10th faces 23rd, 11th takes on 22nd, and so forth.
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Arsenal continue their UEFA Champions League campaign as they host FC Kairat on January 28. Fans can watch the game on Prime Video's TNT Sports channel.
As group winners, Arsenal would be drawn to meet the victor of a play-off involving the teams placed 15th and 18th. As things stand, that match-up would be Juventus vs Qarabag. While the final set of group games could still reshape the standings, Qarabag would likely be the most appealing last-16 opponent available to the Gunners.
Progressing from there would presumably lead to a quarter-final against the side finishing either eighth or ninth. At present, those slots are held by Chelsea and Barcelona. However, if Sporting, currently 10th, were to climb one or two positions - and subsequently win their last-16 tie - that would be a dream scenario for the Gunners.
In the semi-finals, Arsenal would most likely face a team that finished the group phase in either third or fifth place. Currently, those positions are occupied by Real Madrid and Tottenham. While a North London derby in the Champions League last four would be tense, Arsenal would almost certainly welcome a clash with their neighbours given the strength of the alternative and Tottenham's inconsistent domestic performances this season.
The Champions League trophy
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The Gunners are aiming to reach their first Champions League final since 2006(Image: Getty)
When it comes to the final, there are no genuinely easy opponents - though a meeting with one of Europe's superpowers is not inevitable. The most probable finalists would emerge from the teams finishing second, fourth, sixth and seventh in the group phase, spots currently filled by Bayern, Liverpool, PSG and Newcastle.
Liverpool's faltering league form would give Arsenal encouragement in a potential final against them, but in this scenario, Newcastle would be the preferred opponent. The Magpies trail the Gunners by 17 points - and eight league positions - in the Premier League, and their limited European history and lack of experience on the biggest stage would likely see Arsenal start the final as firm favourites.
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Ultimately, Arsenal's destiny will depend as much on sustaining their own level as on the path placed before them - and if Arteta's side continue to deliver on the continental stage, this campaign could finally mark their breakthrough moment in Europe.
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