Leeds United are preparing for a pivotal clash with Arsenal that could have implications at both ends of the Premier League table as the season moves into a decisive period.
The Whites stretched their buffer over the relegation zone to six points with a 1-1 draw away at Everton at the Hill Dickinson Stadium on Monday night.
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Wins for West Ham and Nottingham Forest over the weekend had increased the importance of getting a result on Merseyside to preserve a healthy gap to the teams below.
Saturday’s meeting with league leaders Arsenal will present a significant challenge, but the Gunners arrive under pressure after suffering a home defeat to Manchester United last weekend.
Supercomputer delivers shocking Leeds vs Arsenal prediction
Arsenal swatted Leeds aside with a 5-0 win at the Emirates earlier in the season. However, Leeds are far-improved side, and the Gunners are feeling the heat of the title race.
The away side are aware that any slip-up on Saturday could further cut down their lead at the top of the table, and Leeds have been very strong at home this season.
Paul Scholes and Gary Neville have predicted Leeds to hold Arsenal to a draw at Elland Road this weekend.
However, Opta’s prediction for the game seems to be more focused on the two teams’ respective positions in the league table rather than the context around the game.
The supercomputer has given Arsenal more than a 66 per cent chance of beating Leeds at Elland Road, while the home side have only been given a 15 per cent chance of winning all three points.
The odds of a draw have been set at less than 20 per cent, which seems too low given Arsenal’s struggles to score from open play and Leeds’ strength at home.
Leeds have only lost twice at home, and have not been beaten at Elland Road since Aston Villa won there towards the end of November.
The Whites will fancy their chances on Saturday
Arsenal are still widely viewed as favourites for the title, but their recent displays have been unconvincing, with Manchester United fully deserving their victory at the Emirates on Sunday.
The Gunners have appeared edgy in recent weeks, with the pressure of the title race beginning to tell on the squad.
Although Leeds have struggled against Arsenal in recent meetings, they could be catching the league leaders at a favourable moment, given their current form.
Leeds United’s home, away and overall Premier League form this season
Form Played Wins Draws Losses Goals For Goals Against Goal Difference PPG
Home 11 5 4 2 19 13 +6 1.73
Away 12 1 4 7 12 25 -13 0.58
Overall 23 6 8 9 31 38 -7 1.13
If Leeds can limit Arsenal’s threat from set pieces, the visitors may be exposed at Elland Road, having looked short of ideas in open play for several weeks.
As a result, Leeds will head into the fixture with confidence against an Arsenal side lacking fluency and feeling the weight of a tightening title race.