Do it, Micky and Nick Arison.
Pick a direction, any direction, and see it through.
But whatever you do, do not allow next Thursday’s NBA trade deadline to pass quietly without spending every waking moment crafting something bold and savvy and significant to lift the franchise out of this profoundly unsatisfying state of perpetual play-in paralysis.
There’s the obvious option A: Continue your aggressive pursuit of a trade for Giannis Antetokounmpo. The Heat appears to be going all in on this, as it should. ESPN reports that Miami, Golden State, the Knicks and Minnesota are all aggressive suitors and the Bucks are strongly listening to offers for the first time.
But with competition fierce, here’s some advice: Aside from Bam Adebayo, don’t draw a line in the sand on any player who Milwaukee wants. I don’t want to hear about a deal being torpedoed because Milwaukee insisted on Jaime Jaquez Jr. or Davion Mitchell or anyone else. (While the case could be made for offering Adebayo, it’s a fruitless discussion because the Heat, from all indications, is not going to do that.)
Yes, he’s a 31-year-old with four calf strains in two years. But he’s also a top 25 all-time great, and even if the remainder of his career is marred by injuries, it’s worth the risk.
If you win the Antetokounmpo sweepstakes, great. But if you don’t, the Heat must quickly pivot to the “selling off assets” plan — an approach you have resisted (and understandably so) since the Big 3 era ended.
See if anyone will give you a first-round pick for Andrew Wiggins (who can opt out after this season) or Tyler Herro (whose durability has become a growing concern) so that you can finally restock your draft inventory and stop operating at a deficit in the trade market against teams that own a treasure trove of picks. With only two tradeable first round picks, you’re in no position to do that now.
As for Norm Powell, get a definitive read about whether you will be able to agree on a contract extension or a new contract when he becomes a free agent this summer. If you’re far apart, then try to flip him for a first-round pick. That would diminish this year’s team amid Herro’s injury issues, but if the goal is to win a championship, what difference would it make?
You’re an eight seed that has lost all four games you’ve played against the seventh seed (Orlando) and you’re very likely not playing deep into May with or without Powell.
Either path A or B is fine, with A (Antetokounmpo) naturally the preference.
But twiddling your thumbs and hoping that this will be the year that this middling group catches fire, advances out of the play-in and beats more talented teams in the playoffs would not only be short-sighted but also would run counter to the franchise’s long-term best interests, even if ownership doesn’t want to accept that.
The Heat can keep saying that it took a similar approach in 2023, beginning that journey as an eighth seed and advancing to the NBA Finals. But that team had what this roster, as constituted, will never have: A two-way player capable of playing like a first-team All-NBA superstar and performing at that level for two months.
Don’t fool yourselves into thinking this team, without Jimmy Butler or a player of his talent, can do the same.
We keep coming back to this truism: No team this century has made the Finals without a first-, second- or third-team NBA player. Nearly all of those teams had future Hall of Famers. This Heat roster doesn’t have a player who will even sniff the third team.
It’s one thing to be optimistic; it’s another to be delusional and believe that a bunch of good players, a great coach and Heat Culture can transform a modestly talented group into a championship contender.
Now let’s be clear: The Arisons have been wonderful stewards of the franchise. In combination with Pat Riley, Erik Spoelstra, Andy Elisburg and top personnel men Adam Simon and predecessor Chet Kammerer, they have made this a model franchise, the envy of half the league, and given fans seven Finals appearances, three NBA titles and a product that’s almost always worth the price of a ticket.
But the modern NBA demands that teams pick a direction: Either go all in with a roster genuinely worthy of competing for a title, or take a temporary step back.
The Heat remains dead set against a tank — organic or otherwise — because its historical analysis suggests that it’s generally unsuccessful (no disputing that) and it is determined to provide paying customers with a product that’s competitive every year.
That’s admirable, though I would argue that the Heat would be better equipped than most to emerge in a better place after a tank because of their generally excellent evaluation in the draft (Precious Achiuwa over Tyrese Maxey standing as a rare exception).
The Heat almost never drafts busts. Its success rate at landing pretty good or very good NBA players is exceptional.
But in an era where free agency is no longer a realistic vehicle to add stars, the approach also requires endless patience.
By refusing to trade veterans for draft assets, Miami basically is relying on hope — hope that it can draft a Kawhi Leonard or Antetokounmpo in the teens or hope that it has enough assets to snag a star via trade while doing nothing particularly proactive to acquire the draft inventory needed to acquire such stars
Of the 225 players drafted between 11 and 19 this century, do you know how many have become first- or second- or third-team All-NBA players? Eight.
Only four have been first-team All-NBA: Leonard (selected 15th in 2011), Antetokounmpo (15th in 2013), Devin Booker (13th in 2015) and Shae Gilgeous-Alexander (11th in 2018). So in this century, the odds of drafting a first team All-NBA player in that draft range is 1.7%.
Six others have been second- or third-team All-NBA: Zach Randolph (19th in 2011), Al Jefferson (15th in 2004), Klay Thompson (11th in 2011), Domantas Sabonis (11th in 2016), Donovan Mitchell (13th in 2017) and Tyrese Haliburton (12th in 2020).
So 2% of players selected where the Heat now picks regularly become stars worth building a team around.
And there’s this: Of the 225 players in that pool, fewer than 40 became good NBA starters, with the jury out on more recent picks. That pool of those players (11 to 19) produced more busts or major disappointments than starters on winning teams.
I immediately thought of the Heat when Pittsburgh Steelers owner Art Rooney told reporters, after Mike Tomlin’s resignation, that he does not want to give up a season with the hope that losing could lead to better days long-term. ESPN’s Mike Greenberg correctly said that the Steelers, in the view of other teams, simply “do not want to take their medicine.”
The same can be said for the Heat. Unless you’re extraordinarily lucky or unless a team is willing to trade your its star, the modern NBA virtually requires you to take a step back to take a big step forward.
So if the Heat cannot land Antetokounmpo — or determines that the Bucks don’t like their package — please quickly pivot in the other direction. Do not accept riding the hamster wheel of mediocrity, because there will reach a point that the journey will become so entirely unfulfilling and exasperatingly predictable, that a portion of the fan base will tune out.
So during the next week, the Arisons need to gather around their three championship trophies, with Riley and Arison and Elisburg and Simon and Spoelstra, and they all must lay out the details of both paths, so they can move quickly if the Bucks reject their offers.
They must discuss whether a case could be made for selling high on players, a concept which seems to repulse them.
They must discuss whether they should quietly determine what the market would command for Adebayo — not to necessarily trade him (I’m not advocating that just yet) — but to know their options so they can make an educated, unemotional decision based on what’s best for the long-term.
The path couldn’t be clearer:
Go all in if you can land Antetokounmpo or another All-NBA type player.
And if that fails, prioritize the long term good and start squirreling away assets that serve the dual purpose of filing your trade-chip cupboard and increasing your odds of landing a lottery pick in a 2026 draft that’s likely to be rich in talent.
But continuing to stick with an average team devoid of star power, hoping to catch lightning in a bottle, doesn’t make you smarter than everybody. It makes you Chicago or Atlanta.