Entering the season, the Minnesota Timberwolves had uncertainty about their rotation.
Minnesota elected to run it back this year with the same nucleus as last season, sans Nickeil Alexander-Walker, who signed with the Atlanta Hawks. After last year’s team reached the Western Conference Finals, Tim Connelly and the front office trusted that they had enough to match their prior success.
It was evident that the Timberwolves would need others in the guard room to step up to fill Alexander-Walker’s output. However, the Wolves have found it difficult to replicate Alexander-Walker’s lineup and role malleability.
Minnesota’s success is driven primarily by Anthony Edwards‘ output. Still, Edwards can only carry the Timberwolves so far as they try to fill holes on their roster. The Wolves are always going to succeed when their superstar is on the court. Still, they are experiencing growing pains even when Edwards is on the court.
Building a team identity is vital. The Timberwolves have become a defensive-minded team solely because of Rudy Gobert, one of the NBA’s greatest rim protectors of all time. Still, Gobert’s reliance on drop coverage and offensive limitations hamper Minnesota’s creativity. Gobert’s peak success is still often reliant on the players that are in the lineup around him.
In addition to building an identity, the NBA’s best teams continue to find ways to toggle between different personnel and styles of play.
The Timberwolves have found their identity at times this season. Still, the roster’s holes in the guard room, Gobert’s limitations, and the lack of development from Minnesota’s recent draft selections have severely limited the lineup’s versatility.
Nickeil Alexander-Walker had limits as a point guard. Like Donte DiVincenzo, he didn’t excel at dealing with ball pressure as the initiator of possessions, which is typical for combo guards. Therefore, the Timberwolves were able to get by by slightly miscasting their guards outside of their primary roles. However, when the Wolves have moved players around to fill in at point guard, it has had a domino effect on the rest of the lineups available and ultimately limited the guards themselves.
Rob Dillingham has not progressed quickly enough to align with Minnesota’s timeline. Mike Conley is 38 and no longer offers much production, and while Bones Hyland has been a pleasant surprise, his game is still limited. Ultimately, to play their guards correctly, the Timberwolves and Chris Finch must craft their lineup in a particular way.
Not every team has perfect lineup versatility, but the Timberwolves feel particularly restricted by their roster compared to other contenders.
Minnesota’s guard room limitations don’t help the rest of the roster, but it doesn’t stop there. Jaylen Clark is the epitome of Minnesota’s lingering lineup versatility.
Clark offers the Timberwolves upside on defense, but his offensive shortcomings make it very difficult for them to find lineups that can hold up. Lineups featuring Clark and Gobert have a +6.8 NET rating, driven by their 100.8 defensive rating (DRTG) when they play together. Nevertheless, the eye test of the two on offense doesn’t offer enough confidence.
Clark spends time in two spots offensively: In the corner and in the dunker spot. Clark has proven to be a shaky three-point shooter. Over his 1,146 minutes in the NBA, he is shooting just 25 of 72 (34.7%) from the corner.
He’s useful in the dunker spot within lineups when Gobert is off the floor. He doesn’t offer much offense in the dunker spot, but it gives him a spot to space the court for others properly.
When Clark shares the court with Gobert, Clark can move to the dunker spot when Gobert is setting a high perimeter ballscreen. Still, most Clark-Gobert lineups will create an offensive logjam and allow opponents to sag off one of them, drawing attention to more relevant threats.
The Timberwolves have far too many conflicting players within their rotation at this point.
Luckily, the Timberwolves have two Swiss Army knives in Jaden McDaniels and Naz Reid to help fill the voids. While McDaniels and Reid can be inconsistent with their individual output, they offer positional and role versatility that can fit with anyone on the roster.
McDaniels and Reid are good examples of why NBA team building continues to trend towards size and shooting. Both players can expand their roles to score more on the ball. Still, they thrive by giving others, such as Anthony Edwards, outlets within the half-court offense.
McDaniels is a dramatically better defensive player than Reid, but at minimum, Reid offers the Timberwolves size. He may be a defensive hole at times, but his frame alone can still help him overcome some of his deficiencies.
Ultimately, the Timberwolves lineup lacks versatility. So, where do they move from here? How can the Wolves maximize their roster around Anthony Edwards?
Some of the conversation can be traced back to the Rudy Gobert paradox. Still, the Timberwolves need to find better ways to become a more multifaceted roster.
They can survive regular seasons. However, come playoff time, they will have a limited number of ways to toggle their lineups to beat or match their opponents.