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Leeds v Arsenal predictions: Draw specialists Leeds could add to Arteta’s frustration

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Rather than berate his team after the surprise 3-2 home loss to Manchester United, Arsenal boss Mikel Arteta opted for the David Brent guitar approach.

Hopefully for the Gunners a sing-song and some love in the room is the smart psychological approach and they can shake off a Premier League blip which has seen them take just two points from the last nine after earlier 0-0 draws against Liverpool and Nottingham Forest.

Like several English sides, while doubts and inconsistency have surfaced in the Premier League, Arsenal have made hay in Europe.

Winning all eight Champions League group games was a superb achievement but now the full focus is on trying to preserve or hopefully extend their domestic lead which has been reduced to four points after both Manchester City and Aston Villa won last weekend.

A trip to Elland Road to take on an in-form Leeds is hardly the easiest way for Arsenal to arrest their top-flight stutters though.

The Whites have taken 15 points from the last 10 games, losing just once in that run, and at home they’ve racked up three wins (Chelsea, Crystal Palace and Leeds) and two draws (Liverpool and Man Utd) in their last five top-flight outings in West Yorkshire.

How to watch Leeds v Arsenal

Leeds v Arsenal kicks off at 15.00 GMT on Saturday, January 31 at Elland Road.

There is no live coverage in the UK due to the 3pm blackout rule.

BBC Radio 5 Live will provide full live radio coverage.

Leeds team news

Leeds have flourished since their switch to a 3-5-2 and Daniel Farke will again hope it works wonders against the leaders.

Daniel James and Gabriel Gudmundsson are back in the mix again after spells out although the bench looks likely for both as Leeds stick with the players that have helped them pull clear of the drop zone.

But one key man who could return is midfielder Sean Longstaff after recent sub appearances against Derby in the FA Cup and Everton in the Premier League on Monday night.

Defender Jaka Bijol is still absent with a thigh problem.

Leeds expected line-up

(3-5-2) Darlow; Rodon, Bornauw, Struijk; Bogle, Stach, Ampadu, Longstaff, Justin; Aaronson, Calvert-Lewin.

Arsenal team news

Arteta was again able to rotate in the Champions League given that the Gunners were already qualified through to the last 16.

And he now has options everywhere with Kai Havertz returning after a long-term absence and Declan Rice and Mike Merino returning after suspensions.

Defenders William Saliba and Jurrien Timber have shaken off knocks although teenager Max Dowman, who has just signed a new contract, is out with an ankle injury.

Arsenal expected line-up

(4-3-3) Raya; Timber, Saliba, Gabriel, Hincapie; Rice, Zubimendi, Odegaard; Trossard, Gyokeres, Saka.

Leeds v Arsenal stats

– Leeds are winless in their last six home league games against Arsenal (D2 L4) since a 1-0 victory in November 2000. Three of those four defeats have been by a 4-1 scoreline.

– Arsenal have won their last six league games against Leeds by an aggregate score of 20-5. It’s their longest ever winning run against the Whites.

– Arsenal have scored 4+ goals in eight different Premier League games against Leeds, beating them 5-0 in August’s reverse fixture.

– Leeds have never won a Premier League home game against the side starting the day top of the table (D7 L7).

– Leeds are unbeaten in their last five Premier League home games (W3 D2), last having a longer run in the same top-flight campaign between March and May 2021 (6 – W3 D3).

– Arsenal are winless in their last three Premier League games (D2 L1), losing 3-2 against Manchester United last time out. The Gunners haven’t lost consecutive league games since December 2023.

– Leeds have lost just one of their last 10 Premier League games (W3 D6), with that defeat coming at Newcastle courtesy of two stoppage time goals. No side has lost fewer games than the Whites since the start of December (1).

– Arsenal have benefitted from more own goals than any other side in the Premier League this season (4).

Leeds v Arsenal predictions

Now then Arsenal, what have you got?

This is exactly the sort of test – a passionate Elland Road crowd roaring on an in-form Leeds – that Champions-elect need to pass.

While Europe has been a stroll for the Gunners, the Premier League is getting tougher and it’s hard to bat away the idea that Arsenal are retreating into their shell rather than going for it.

That safety-first approach is having an effect on their goal output and they might well have to score twice here to beat a Leeds side who almost always score at home.

The draw at 16/5 certainly appeals more than Arsenal at 4/7 – especially as Leeds have had six stalemates in their last nine matches.

One other route to that is to play the Arsenal-Draw option in the Half Time/Full Time market.

The logic is that Arsenal start well, lead at the break but then caution kicks in and Leeds level it up in the second half.

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