Leeds United welcome Arsenal to Elland Road on Saturday afternoon with both sides looking for points on the board for wildly contrasting reasons.
Leeds were forced to settle for a draw last time out at Everton, having completely dominated the first half, but then the familiar feeling of sitting deep and inviting pressure crept in.
The Toffees earned their way back to parity, but Leeds still are a point closer to the goal of survival, six clear of the bottom three.
Leeds United team news confirmed pre-Arsenal: Lukas Nmecha, Jaka Bijol out, Gabriel Gudmundsson possible boost
Mixed team news was confirmed in Daniel Farke’s Leeds v Arsenal press conference this week. He shared that Lukas Nmecha is a fresh absentee for the weekend, having suffered a hamstring injury during the warm-up on Monday.
He joins Jaka Bijol on the sidelines, with the centre-back expected back after our meeting with Nottingham Forest. Meanwhile, there’s a chance Nmecha could return for that six-pointer.
More positively, Farke gave Gabriel Gudmundsson a slim chance of returning to the fold this weekend. He missed Everton with an adductor issue.
Dan James is close to being back in contention too after another week of full training.
Here, I predict the lineup I’m expecting Farke to name as we host the league leaders, Arsenal…
Goalkeeper: Karl Darlow
At this point, I do think that it’s now Karl Darlow’s spot to give away, rather than being in a position to just take the heat off Lucas Perri.
I don’t think Darlow’s done all that much in his three consecutive appearances to cement his standing further. He made a very smart, diving save at 0-1 against Everton, but his calamitous header against Fulham would have been crucified a lot more if his Brazilian counterpart were the guilty party. Let’s be real.
Leeds United’s Karl Darlow should keep his place vs Arsenal. (Action Images via Reuters/Ed Sykes)
That being said, outside of that moment and a couple of dodgy kicks, I’m yet to have my heart in my mouth with Darlow that much in the Premier League this season. Perri, though, has that sort of moment every week frustratingly.
If Leeds had PSR headroom to burn, I’d have cut our losses and got a new goalkeeper this month. But, we have more pressing issues, so that waits until the summer.
Defence: Jayden Bogle, Joe Rodon, Sebastiaan Bornauw, Pascal Struijk, James Justin
I think we’re sure to see an unchanged back five, given that the two players who could come in aren’t match fit – Gudmundsson and Bijol.
That means Monday’s goalscorer James Justin remains on the left, with Jayden Bogle on the right. The full-back duo were two of Leeds’ best in that first half, getting forward well and providing real threat from out wide.
James Justin has been a revelation since joining Leeds United from Leicester City. (REUTERS/Peter Powell)
At centre-back, Leeds are going to have to do a lot of defending inside their own third. To me, the focus is on Sebastiaan Bornauw and how he manages those central spaces, hopefully better than he did at Everton.
The Belgian of course hasn’t had regular games to build rhythm, and it showed with Thierno Barry getting the better of him in their 1v1 matchup. Whether it’s Gabriel Jesus, Kai Havertz, or Viktor Gyokeres at Elland Road, he may have his work cut out.
Either side, Joe Rodon and Pascal Struijk will also have to be on their A game, especially in the air as Arsenal possess a ridiculous threat from dead balls.
Midfield: Brenden Aaronson, Ethan Ampadu, Anton Stach
The first change I can envisage is Ilia Gruev dropping out of the XI with Brenden Aaronson reverting to a role in midfield.
My reasoning here is similar to what happened at home to Crystal Palace. Leeds, in possession, played almost like a 3-4-3 as Rodon shuffled to right-back, Bogle went higher, and it allowed Aaronson into an inside-right role, getting close to our striker. In turn, it gets the best out of him and Bogle.
Brenden Aaronson has been in incredible form for Leeds United. (Action Images via Reuters/Lee Smith)
That leaves Ethan Ampadu as the anchor in the middle of the park, needing to stop Arsenal playing through the middle and getting shots off from the edge of the box.
Anton Stach remains in the side of course, and moves to the left side this time, where I think his best performances have been as part of a midfield three.
I dubbed Stach as the German Declan Rice back in the summer, based on his skillset rather than quality. If Leeds are to get a result, he’s going to have to get the better of the real deal, who has arguably been one of the best players in the league this season.
Attack: Dominic Calvert-Lewin, Noah Okafor
In every home game from Crystal Palace onwards, Noah Okafor has started up front.
There’ll be debate about whether Farke should go with the Swiss wide man as a strike partner, but his willingness to stick with Okafor is there to see.
As I mentioned earlier, if we shift to a 3-4-3 in possession, that means Okafor is the opposite wide man to Aaronson. In truth, that sort of role is the only way we’re going to get value out of him while playing a 3-5-2 on paper.
He struggles with his back to goal, but boy can he cause trouble when he gets 1v1 with his full-back in space. Jurrien Timber, though, is perhaps the best right-back in the league so it’s a tough test that awaits.
Up front, obviously Dominic Calvert-Lewin retains his place and will be looking to get back to goalscoring ways after failing to haunt his former employers.
If Leeds are to cause trouble for Arsenal’s back line, we’ll need to get in the centre-back’s faces. Despite being obviously a great player, I always have a feeling that William Saliba is the one to get at. He was atrocious last time he came to Elland Road, completely bullied by Patrick Bamford.
Full Leeds United predicted XI to face Arsenal
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