Leeds United v Arsenal Arsenal are the best team in Europe having this week finished the Champions League group stage with eight wins out of eight, including one against the only side who could realistically dispute that status, Bayern Munich.
If the Gunners are fully firing at Elland Road on Saturday afternoon, they will win.
Confidence has played a part in both side's start to 2026, and Leeds United have a lot more of it at the moment than their opponents, at least when the Premier League anthem is played, rather than the Champions League one.
There is heavy history on Arsenal's shoulders right now.
Not since 2004 have they lifted the Premier League trophy they saw plenty of in Arsene Wenger's pomp. For all the good work Mikel Arteta has done as manager, he has not added to the trophy he won in his first season, the 2020 FA Cup.
Three consecutive second-place finishes ought to be the mark of a club building towards something; a fourth would feel like them bottling it. For them, 2025-26 is "now or never" time.
A 0-0 draw with Liverpool, another with Nottingham Forest and a 3-2 defeat at Manchester United has raised eyebrows and pressure levels. Forget the fact Manchester City had three league draws and a defeat before beating bottom-of-the-table Wolverhampton Wanderers, it is Arsenal who are seen as vulnerable all of a sudden.
FEELING THE PRESSURE: Arsenal's Declan Rice reacts to Manchester United's winning goal on Sunday (Image: Alex Pantling/Getty Images)placeholder image
FEELING THE PRESSURE: Arsenal's Declan Rice reacts to Manchester United's winning goal on Sunday (Image: Alex Pantling/Getty Images)
Leeds, by contrast, are "buzzing" in the words of Sebastiaan Bornauw. What ought to have been a high-pressure season for them as they look to buck the trend of teams yo-yoing between the Championship and Premier League is shaping up quite nicely, thank you – six points clear of the relegation zone.
"We just look week by week, and this week there is a really big game," says the central defender, who did not make a league start in 2025 but has slotted into the side in the absence of the injured Jaka Bijol.
"Elland Road will be buzzing, as we are, so I think that's how we look at it.
"We're going to try to play our best football and see what happens."
DRY SPELL: Arsenal have not lifted a trophy since the 2020 FA Cup final win over Chelsea (Image: Catherine Ivill/Getty Images)placeholder image
DRY SPELL: Arsenal have not lifted a trophy since the 2020 FA Cup final win over Chelsea (Image: Catherine Ivill/Getty Images)
And that could be the difference when the game kicks off at 3pm – Leeds will be there to enjoy it, Arsenal to endure it.
But now when manager Daniel Farke insists, "We are not scared" you believe him.
BORN CONFIDENT: Sebastiaan Bornauw closes down Hugo Ekitike (left) as Leeds United claim a clean sheet at Anfield (Image: Jan Kruger/Getty Images)placeholder image
BORN CONFIDENT: Sebastiaan Bornauw closes down Hugo Ekitike (left) as Leeds United claim a clean sheet at Anfield (Image: Jan Kruger/Getty Images)
They are by no means the only good team Leeds have faced in that period. Club world champions Chelsea have been beaten, reigning domestic champions Liverpool held to two draws. Leeds drew at Brentford, where only one visiting side had won all season, and at Sunderland, where no one has yet. They ended Ruben Amorim's Manchester United tenure and were kicking themselves at not beating Everton on Monday.
"Every good result and every good performance is encouraging," commented their manager after a 1-1 draw which featured some of the best football of Farke’s tenure in the first half.
"We are still a newly-promoted side so to go to places like Sunderland when they were on hot form – no one has won there – and to show a good performance to drive away with one point, to go to Liverpool and come back with a clean sheet, to go to Everton and everyone was slightly disappointed it wasn't all three, to go to Newcastle and get lots of praise for the performance is always good for the confidence."
And those were all away games. With two defeats since the start of last season, confidence at Elland Road has never been in short supply.
"We all became a (professional) player to can play these big games when you play at home with our fans," says Bornauw. "We're really looking forward to it."
If they were caught in the headlights at Ashburton Grove, there should be no inferiority complex against Arsenal this time around.
MORE BOOST: Leeds United manager Daniel Farke embraces Lucas Perri after December's home win over Chelsea (Image: Oli SCARFF / AFP via Getty Images)placeholder image
MORE BOOST: Leeds United manager Daniel Farke embraces Lucas Perri after December's home win over Chelsea (Image: Oli SCARFF / AFP via Getty Images)
"Now I think it's important that we are used to playing at this level, used to these top sides," reflects Farke.
"We have made very tight and competitive games against the top sides, many good results and many good performances. We go with more confidence and more belief into games against top opponents."
Too much confidence can be dangerous too, of course.
"There's no reason to lose the ground under our feet," warns the German.
"We have to always invest 100 per cent, we have to find a good balance between being rock-solid and well-structured, and on the other hand brave and confident with the ball.
"We need to show this in every game because we won't win any points at this level with individual quality, we have to win it with the team."
But that teamwork which has gone up a notch around the turn of the year gives Leeds a chance they did not really have five months ago.