Opta’s Supercomputer predicts winner of Premier League clash between Tottenham and Manchester City.
Manchester City are favorites to defeat Tottenham Hotspur at the Tottenham Hotspur Stadium on Sunday, with the Opta supercomputer assigning Pep Guardiola’s side a 46.9% chance of victory.
Across 10,000 pre-match simulations, Tottenham were victorious in just 28.7% of scenarios, with the remaining 24.4% seeing the points shared. The prediction reflects City’s superior quality despite their recent struggles on the road and Tottenham’s historically strong record against Guardiola.
Remarkably, Guardiola has lost more league games against Spurs than any other opponent in his managerial career, suffering eight defeats including the reverse fixture at the Etihad Stadium in August. On that occasion, goals from Brennan Johnson and João Palhinha late in the first half secured a 2-0 victory for Thomas Frank‘s side.
Thomas Frank and Pep Guardiola
Thomas Frank and Pep Guardiola
Tottenham could complete their 10th Premier League double over Manchester City, with only Chelsea having achieved the feat against the Citizens 10 times. Spurs’ nine Premier League doubles against City already represent their most against any opponent in the competition’s history.
However, form suggests City should prevail comfortably. Thomas Frank has earned just 0.82 points per home Premier League game in charge of Tottenham, the worst such record of any Spurs boss in the competition’s history. Teams managed by Frank have won just four of their last 22 home Premier League matches.
Tottenham are winless in their last five Premier League games, drawing three and losing two, including last weekend’s 2-2 draw at Burnley that intensified pressure on Frank. Spurs sit 14th in the table, with the supercomputer rating 15th as their most likely final position (13.6% probability).
City defeated Wolves 2-0 last Saturday and secured a top-eight Champions League finish in midweek with victory over Galatasaray. January signings Antoine Semenyo and Marc Guéhi have made immediate impacts, with Semenyo scoring five goals in his last eight Premier League appearances for Bournemouth and City combined.
Arsenal will back their North London rivals
Arsenal supporters face the unenviable prospect of hoping their north London rivals can deliver a favor in the title race. The Gunners lead City by four points heading into the weekend, with the Opta supercomputer rating Arsenal’s title chances at 81.5% compared to City’s 9.1%.
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City have struggled away from home recently, dropping points at Sunderland and Manchester United since the new year. Across the last two seasons, City rank sixth for points won on the road (1.53 per game), a significant decline from the 2.13 per game they averaged in the two campaigns beforehand.
Tottenham’s injury crisis continues, with James Maddison, Rodrigo Bentancur, Dejan Kulusevski, Mohammed Kudus, Ben Davies, Lucas Bergvall, Richarlison, and Pedro Porro all unavailable. Micky van de Ven missed Wednesday’s Frankfurt victory with a “minor thing” but Frank is hopeful he will be fit.