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Paul George was suspended by the NBA for 25 games on Saturday morning for violating the NBA’s anti-drug policy, sending shockwaves across Philadelphia in the middle of what had otherwise been a normal season.
Speaking to ESPN’s Shams Charania, George claimed that he was seeking treatment for a mental health issue and took a medication that caused his positive test. His full statement:
Over the past few years, I’ve discussed the importance of mental health, and in the course of recently seeking treatment for an issue of my own, I made the mistake of taking an improper medication. I take full responsibility for my actions and apologize to the Sixers organization, my teammates and the Philly fans for my poor decision making during this process. I am focused on using this time to make sure that my mind and body are in the best condition to help the team when I return. — Paul George
It is a devastating loss for the Sixers with less than a week to go before the NBA trade deadline, with far-reaching implications in Philadelphia. Let’s touch on a few of the most obvious issues.
The Sixers do not have wing depth
The most obvious problem is that George is a uniquely skilled wing the Sixers can’t replace through depth, through trade, or through internal development. It’s not surprising that a team paying someone $50+ million a year doesn’t have great replacement options, but the hole they have to fill is absolutely massive on both sides of the floor.
George was an impact defender for Philadelphia from the moment he stepped on the floor this season. Opponents have scored nearly five fewer points per 100 possessions with George on the floor compared to off the floor, and the numbers they post with George in the game are equivalent to a top-five NBA defense. His combination of help instincts, playmaking ability, rebounding contributions, and effort in transition add up to a very complete player there. But some of those gains are connected to Philadelphia’s offensive improvement with George on the floor. The more you score, the easier it is to get setup and offer your best defense in the halfcourt.
Losing George for 25 games hurts for top groups and backup lineups alike. An assumed starting lineup with Dominick Barlow and Kelly Oubre at the 3/4 spots maintains defensive toughness but compromises spacing. Philadelphia’s most reliable non-George wing is Oubre, a productive two-way player who has shot the ball well this year, but presumably will come back toward his career numbers at some point. Justin Edwards was reintroduced in the rotation this week and brings the requisite floor spacing, with the drawback of being one of the least reliable defenders on the team. Beyond that, you’re asking Edgecombe or Quentin Grimes to masquerade as a three, unless Nurse decides to turn to two-way wing Marjon Beauchamp for experimental minutes.
For much of this season, Nurse has used George as a gap-filler for the various bench lineups they go through when stars need rest. He has been a particularly useful partner for VJ Edgecombe, with Nurse often using George to open the second and fourth quarters in lineups with Maxey and Embiid on the bench. George’s shooting gravity and ability to hunt mismatches have opened driving space for Edgecombe and offered him a release valve if early-clock offense goes sideways. And George often played initiator in those minutes, going on 6-10 point scoring runs to settle the offense and buy time for their stars. Edgecombe and George lineups have won consistently in any context this year, which is a boon as they try to find rest for Maxey and Embiid. Asking Edgecombe to try to win those minutes with questionable decisionmakers like Grimes and Oubre is a much different challenge.
(This should be the catalyst for Nick Nurse staggering Embiid and Maxey to keep one on the floor for all 48 minutes. He has been reluctant to commit to it full-time, either because of lineup testing or minutes restrictions, but there is no choice at this point.)
Further down the list in value is George’s playmaking ability, but I would argue it’s a significant loss for this team, which lacks credible playmakers throughout the rotation. They are a group getting by with a lot of good, not great passers all over the floor, and the drop off from George to a replacement in this department is significant. To avoid overextending Grimes, Oubre, and others, it may require a larger dose of Trendon Watford, a good off-the-dribble playmaker at the forward spot, which would bring additional problems on the glass and defensive end.
There would seem to be two main directions the Sixers could go in light of the news. I think there’s a credible argument to lean heavily into small ball, hoping that three and even four-guard looks can juice the offense enough to get away with limitations elsewhere. Even in some of their bigger lineups, they’ve been a heinous rebounding team, so it may be worth chasing the upside of shooting and ballhandling around Maxey/Embiid rather than hoping you can cobble together a decent two-way team out of end-of-bench forwards and two-way signees. But this thesis also requires the good version of Jared McCain, who has stopped through for maybe a solid game and a quarter in a month and a half.
Trade season got much more complicated
Here’s a simple fact — the Sixers were blindsided by this. Anyone who is spinning you a version of “this is how the Sixers will react” or “this is what it does to their trade plans” is speaking with unearned certainty. This is a massive variable the team was not ready for, and it’s fair to say they need at least 24-48 hours (if not more) to figure out what happens next.
So let’s first focus on a few things we know with certainty:
George’s suspension does have salary/luxury tax implications. He loses close to $12 million from his salary as a result of this suspension, but the Sixers got a luxury tax credit worth half of that amount (it’s a shade under $5.9 million).
That luxury tax credit is a pretty big deal for their luxury tax standing, bringing the Sixers from about $7 million over the tax line to around $1.3 million above it.
Yes, Paul George could still be traded while suspended.
Now, for what that could mean in theory.
The luxury tax savings are fairly consequential. Before this suspension, the Sixers would have needed to move a real rotation player (like Kelly Oubre or Andre Drummond) in addition to a minimum player to get under the luxury tax line. Now it can be accomplished by moving a minimum-salary player. Taken a step further, they can now get under the tax line and convert Barlow and Walker to minimum salary contracts by simply dumping two minimum salaries at the deadline, which would allow them to hold onto all their meaningful rotation players. Philadelphia has been a tax-ducking team often enough that Joel Embiid referenced that fact after Thursday’s Kings game, appealing to the powers that be to make a win-now move, so this can’t be ignored.
But the bigger question is how comfortable the Sixers feel making a move of consequence, knowing George can’t return until March 25th at the earliest. 15 of their next 25 games are on the road, including a long West Coast trip next week, and future visits to the Timberwolves, Celtics, Hawks, Cavs, Pistons, and Nuggets, all teams either competing for a playoff spot or firmly entrenched in the standings. There is a ton of variability in the Eastern Conference playoff picture, but the Sixers are currently closer to the eight seed than a top-four seed. Do you believe in the talent enough to push chips in to steady the group and make them deeper come playoff time, or hold onto your future chips knowing this suspension has put you on a treacherous road to make the playoffs, let alone thrive in them?
In that sense, George’s biggest apology might be owed to Tyrese Maxey, whose play has warranted searching for more help as the veteran stars take nights off to stay fresh for the playoffs. The Sixers could very well decide that preserving the future is more important than a reinforcement trade, but that will be a tough pill to swallow for the guy who has had to try to carry the team with or without George (and Embiid) all season.
With Giannis Antetokounmpo linked to the Sixers in recent days, I think there are Giannis-specific complications that could stem from this. A trade bringing the Greek Freak to Philadelphia with George headed out required a third party hunting for someone who can help them win now, siphoning off whatever they might pay for that type of player to help Philly juice up their package for Milwaukee. George’s inability to play during the regular-season stretch run likely takes that off the table. For example, if the Golden State Warriors had been interested in George as a fallback after losing the Giannis sweepstakes (and they made a run at him during last year’s free agency), there’s a 0.0 percent chance they would consider it now. A team sitting eighth in the West, already down Jimmy Butler, is in no position to trade for another guy who can’t play until the season is nearly over.
The biggest problem of all is that the Sixers are now even more reliant on the health and future of Joel Embiid, who is in rip-roaring form in January but always one bad fall or step away from a spell on the trainer’s table. The danger is throwing caution to the wind with the big man, leaning on him for heavier minutes and even more games in the months ahead, selling out to make the playoffs while straying from an approach that delivers Embiid there healthy. The same is also true for Maxey, who has logged close to 40 minutes a night, and Edgecombe, who was among the NBA’s minutes leaders early in the season before calf tightness prompted some organizational caution. Nick Nurse wants to play his stars heavy minutes anyway, and that mentality could save them short-term while adding medium-term risk of catastrophe. It may be the clearest case for a win-now move before next Thursday, if you can add a helpful vet who can sop up minutes and earn enough trust from Nurse to avoid the stars being overworked.
In any case, this suspension could end up defining the Sixers’ season. George has had a nice bounce-back season on both ends of the floor, but this latest misstep will fuel the people who believed the Sixers never should have signed him in the first place.
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