The new year is supposed to bring renewed vigor, new goals, and a fresh start. And during the prime of Golden State’s dynastic heyday, they used to strut through January like the class of the league. It was that time of year after Christmas shenanigans and before the All-Star break where the Warriors were sharpening their tools and stomping over other franchises with gold blooded swagger.
Remember tweets like this?
My, what good times those were. Nowadays Golden State is limping out of January literally and figuratively after dropping their final game of the month 131-124 to the Detroit Pistons last night.
The Warriors just escaped out of January with a 9-7 record, and calling it “escaped” might be generous. This was a month that exposed every crack in the foundation while simultaneously showing flashes of the team that could still scare somebody in a playoff series. The problem? Those two realities are now fighting for control of the season’s narrative.
Let’s start with the good news: for the month the Warriors led the NBA in made threes per game at 17.3 and finished second in scoring at 118.9 PPG. When the offense was clicking, it looked like vintage Golden State. We’re talking ball movement, open looks, and buckets in bunches. They dropped 140 on Utah, hung 137 on Sacramento, and reminded everyone that when the shots are falling, they’re still one of the most dangerous offensive teams in basketball. Moses Moody continued his emergence as a reliable catch-and-shoot threat as he knocked down 43 treys in the month, and the spacing around Curry looked legitimately functional for stretches. I particularly liked that of all the players who made at least 40 triples in January, Moody had the second highest 3p% in the NBA at 46%! (Per Stathead).
Curry averaged 24.6 points, 5.9 assists and 2.8 rebounds in 14 games on 46% shooting (38% from downtown) this month. Those are All-Star numbers in year 17 for the Chef. But the help he got was not enough for the fans who are expecting more from a team that employs arguably the greatest point guard. And those expectations were definitely not tempered after losing Jimmy Butler to injury.
Let’s break down some other January stats and see where it gets ugly: they ranked 27th in opponent effective field goal percentage at 55.9%. Translation? For every efficient bucket Golden State scored, opponents were scoring just as efficiently right back. That’s less winning basketball and more a track meet where the other team brought better shoes.
The defensive breakdowns were systematic and brutal. Despite being second in the league in steals (10.8 per game) they gave up just under 20 points off turnovers per game. That was ranked 29th out of 30!
They were twenty-eighth in fastbreak points allowed (18.7 per game). Let that sink in. Add in a 25th ranking in second-chance points allowed (16.3 PPG), and you’re looking at a team that can’t protect the rim, can’t box out, and can’t stop easy buckets once the initial defense breaks down.
The 14th-ranked defensive rating (112.9) tells the real story: this is a mediocre defensive team winning games because their offense is elite. But when the shots stop falling—and they will—there’s no safety net. That’s why losses to Toronto (145 points allowed) and Detroit (131 points in a loss) hurt so much. Those aren’t fluky defeats; they’re previews of what happens when variance swings the other way.
Jimmy Butler’s 21.3 PPG on 53% shooting in January (capped by that 32-8-4-2 demolition of the Knicks) papered over a lot of these issues. His presence provided just enough two-way stability to keep the ship afloat. Now he’s gone for the season with a torn ACL, and the Warriors are left staring at a 9-7 month wondering if they just survived January or if January was trying to tell them something they didn’t want to hear.
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