An evening in Milwaukee last week was an illuminating reminder that the Nuggets’ trade deadline dilemmas pale in comparison to others around the NBA this year.
I found it impossible to repress the thought, as Giannis Antetokounmpo suddenly limped toward his locker room with 30 seconds remaining in a rock-bottom Bucks loss, that I might’ve just witnessed the Greek Freak’s last game in a Milwaukee uniform. Openly frustrated by his directionless team, yet stubbornly reluctant to divorce the city he loves by applying the blunt force of a trade demand, Antetokounmpo has been both the unstoppable force and immovable object that defines this NBA trade season. Practically every buyer on the market was waiting for clarity in his saga before proceeding with other transactions.
Was it possible that Julian Strawther and the bottom half of Denver’s roster had pushed this to a symbolic breaking point? After procrastinating for more than three quarters, Antetokounmpo was trying to undo another listless Bucks performance in a game they couldn’t afford to lose when he reaggravated a calf strain.
My focus as a beat writer was on a different injury suffered earlier that night by Aaron Gordon. But as a chronicler and fan of this sport, I couldn’t help but wonder about the historical gravitas of the moment I was on hand to watch unfold. Tensions were already as icy as the minus-30 wind chill in Milwaukee, where Giannis is beloved but the team has heard boos recently. Now, Antetokounmpo was self-diagnosing a potential six-week absence in the home locker room. Fans were sent off into the bitter cold with more uncertainty to chew on, while the Nuggets celebrated another unlikely win without their own European superstar. The moods of the two franchises could not have been more different.
Like Milwaukee, Denver has won a championship this decade and fallen short of a second while trying to build around an all-time great big man. Unlike Milwaukee, Denver has not faded from the mix of contenders at any point in this unprecedented era of NBA parity. The Bucks have floundered when Antetokounmpo has been out of the lineup this season. The Nuggets have persevered for a month without Nikola Jokic. The Bucks seem destined for a lottery pick in the draft, whether they trade Antetokounmpo in the next week or wait for the offseason. The Nuggets are on pace for a fourth consecutive 50-win season.
Those juxtapositions feel resonant this week as Milwaukee’s front office finds itself backed into a corner it has desperately tried to avoid for years. Five days after the Nuggets and I were in town, ESPN’s Shams Charania reported the Bucks were open for business. Meanwhile, scuttlebutt around the league remained that Denver is also highly likely to make a trade before the Feb. 5 deadline. Just on an exponentially smaller scale.
The team’s aim, as I’ve reported in recent weeks, will be to duck the luxury tax with a minor deal and possibly to convert Spencer Jones to a standard contract so he can continue playing, if his money aligns with the Kroenkes’ end goal. The Nuggets would be able to treat Jones as an upgrade to their power forward depth for the stretch run and the playoffs. Aaron Gordon’s ongoing injury woes have increased the sense of urgency at that position. If Denver can manage to acquire another playable guy in the trade, consider that a bonus.
The Nuggets have paid the luxury tax three consecutive years, meaning if they finish either of the next two seasons with a payroll that exceeds that threshold, they’ll trigger the repeater tax. This is basically a more dramatic tax penalty imposed on teams based on four-year windows, incentivizing owners not to spend excessively over the salary cap for prolonged periods of time. It’ll be far more difficult for Denver to evade the tax next season, when Gordon and Christian Braun are already owed significant raises and the Kroenkes’ willingness to spend will be tested on Peyton Watson. But for now, penny-pinching can be accomplished with relatively inconsequential basketball moves.
Not exactly thrilling stuff for fans, but nothing detrimental to the Nuggets’ championship hopes, either, as long as they’re responsible. Team officials view this roster as fully capable of challenging the first-place Oklahoma City Thunder.
It’s no secret that Denver’s preferred candidate to offload is Zeke Nnaji, whose 2025-26 cap hit is about $8.2 million. Nnaji has been a solid contributor in January, averaging 8.4 points and 5.1 rebounds in 22 minutes as an emergency center. He’s closed out multiple wins on account of his switchable defensive acumen. He was a two-way star in Denver’s memorable upset of the 76ers. He was responsible for guarding Antetokounmpo in the second half last Friday in Milwaukee.
The problem that has made him especially difficult to move — including last February when former general manager Calvin Booth tried — is the remaining time on his contract. Future cap space is valued at a premium these days. Nnaji has another two years on his deal after this season. For a player who’s usually out of the rotation on his incumbent team, that’s considered a lot to absorb. Maybe the perception would be different if his salary was expiring, but the reality remains that rival teams have long seen Nnaji as a negative-value contract. The Nuggets will likely have to attach second-round draft capital and/or another player if they want to salary-dump him in exchange for another reserve with a smaller cap hit.
Teams that are both willing and able to take on more salary than they send out are difficult to find in today’s NBA, especially when the incoming player isn’t a proven commodity. There are more teams in financial situations that resemble Denver’s.
Take the Orlando Magic: $5.6 million over the tax, with a salary that it might want off the books in Tyus Jones ($7 million). The veteran guard hasn’t made a major impact this season. Nnaji and picks for Jones might sound pretty nice to Denver fans, but basketball reasons aside, why would the Magic agree to that when its goal would also be to decrease payroll? Someone would have to get involved and play the middle man role. A team with less incentive to win this year and more incentive to absorb “bad salary” and stockpile draft picks.
This is all to say that whether Denver finds a two-, three- or 10-team deal, there’s likely to be a certain type of team involved. It’s noteworthy that first-year executives Ben Tenzer and Jon Wallace have already done business with Brooklyn for these exact reasons. Turning Michael Porter Jr. into Cam Johnson saved $17 million last summer and created room for depth. It cost Denver its only tradable first-round pick. Can that partnership be revisited? How about the Bulls, who are run by former Nuggets boss and Tenzer wedding invitee Arturas Karnisovas? Would a division foe be willing to cooperate? Utah is one of the best-equipped teams right now for this sort of trade.
If there isn’t a deal to be done involving Nnaji, Denver’s next two highest cap hits — excluding typical rotation players — are DaRon Holmes II at $3.2 million and Strawther at $2.7 million. Other options toward the bottom of the cap sheet are Jalen Pickett and Hunter Tyson. Pickett ($2.2 million) might be the most enticing of the bunch right now in terms of talent. He’s been a legitimately effective combo guard this month, often starting alongside Jamal Murray and shooting 41% from three.
Watson ($4.4 million), for what it’s worth, is unlikely to be moved at this point despite his status as a pending restricted free agent, from what I’ve heard. His breakout has been too meteoric, too enticing, for the Nuggets to give up on him in the middle of a championship push, even at the risk of losing him in the summer.
I would also be shocked if they part with one of their veteran role players like Johnson or Jonas Valanciunas, both of whom could feasibly be turned into cheaper replacements if we’re really thinking through every option. The new rule of thumb when prognosticating about the NBA trade deadline is to never say never — Luka Doncic is a Los Angeles Laker now — but the Nuggets are just too good to mess around with their playoff rotation over a tax bill. It would be a bad look.
However they end up maneuvering, their trade activity probably won’t appear on any national debate shows. It’ll probably be discussed less than certain trades that don’t even happen. Some front offices that recently had dreams of contending for a title are confronted by sobering, franchise-altering decisions. Who to keep, who to move on from. Memphis with Ja Morant and Jaren Jackson Jr. Dallas with Anthony Davis. Sacramento with Domantas Sabonis and Zach LaVine.
Milwaukee with Giannis. He’s the tipping point for the entire market. The reason it has mostly stalled so far. As he watched Kyle Kuzma’s final heave graze the rim last Friday from the bench, he could see as clearly as anybody in the building that he was part of a broken team.
The Nuggets are more fortunate. They can approach the next week from a stable position. With book-keeping margin moves in mind that shouldn’t jeopardize the basketball product they’re putting out. For half a decade, they’ve been one of the NBA’s most privileged organizations.
That usually means boring trade deadlines. Summertime is when that privilege will truly be under the microscope.
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