The Denver Nuggets finally face off with the Oklahoma City Thunder in their first matchup of the season. The schedule makers held off on this one, with the teams seeing each other 4 times in the next two months in preparation for a potential playoff clash. Neither squad is fully healthy, with Denver still down potentially three starters and the Thunder missing Alex Caruso and Jalen Williams, but Nikola Jokic made a triumphant return in last game’s victory over the Los Angeles Clippers so the Nuggets should have a fighting chance against the reigning champs.
Jamal Murray has played at an All-NBA level while missing Jokic, so his battle with MVP Shai Gilgeous-Alexander should provide plenty of fireworks, but so much of this game comes down to whether Jokic can impose his will while he’s in the game with his minutes restriction, and whether OKC’s defense can hold down the Nuggets when he’s off the floor. Same as it ever was – but both squads know how these games go. It’s Christmas in February for NBA fans in a national broadcast, and if neither team is perfectly set to bring their A+ game, the regular season fervor should still be high.
**Who:** Denver Nuggets (33-16) vs Oklahoma City Thunder (38-11)
**When:** 7:30 PM MST
**Where:** Ball Arena, Denver
**How to watch/listen:** Altitude TV / League Pass, Peacock
**Rival Blog:** [Daily Thunder](https://www.dailythunder.com/)
**Injury Report** | Nuggets: Tamar Bates—out (foot); Aaron Gordon—out (hamstring); Cameron Johnson—out (knee); Christian Braun—doubtful (ankle); Jamal Murray—probable (hip); Nikola Jokic—probable (knee recovery);
Oklahoma City Thunder: Alex Caruso—out (adductor); Ajay Mitchell—out (core injury); Thomas Sorber—out (ACL); Nikola Topic—out (recovery); Jalen Williams—out (hamstring)
**The thing to watch for:** **Can the Nuggets stagger the non-Jokic minutes correctly against the Thunder?** The stretches in the victory over the Clippers without Jamal Murray or Nikola Jokic on the court were tough. And I get that coach probably Adelman doesn’t want to force Murray to keep carrying in all the non-Jokic minutes, since there are more of those now with Nikola currently on a minutes restriction. But Jokic was a +11 and Mal was +25 in a game were Denver simply couldn’t score for several-minute stretches without either of them. Jalen Pickett was -8 on a night where he started. Maybe they need to use Watson more in the minutes where Murray and Joker are off the floor, but against the high-pressure Thunder who are likely to continue the plan of blitzing Murray (who had 20 and 9 against that sort of thing versus the Clips) the Nuggets can’t afford turnovers or long cold stretches. Maintaining the offense is paramount.
**The thing to remember:** **These two teams know each other very well**. Yes, both squads have injury concerns at the moment, but that was true especially for Denver in last year’s 7-game thriller with OKC. Not having Aaron Gordon hurts against this Thunder lineup, but as long as Jokic and Murray can go the Nuggets will have hands for OKC in another 12-round pugilistic affair. The plan to have Cam Johnson available to take offensive pressure off Jamal isn’t yet available, but Peyton Watson has shown he can handle a bigger offensive load and with Jokic back it’s harder to cheat to Jamal – the safety valve in Denver’s offense will be there for 25 minutes again.
The question is whether the Nuggets have enough players available to slow the Thunder in crunch time. These are the top-two scoring units in the NBA even with some missing pieces. The Thunder are great at forcing teams into poor shots, but Denver doesn’t take those. The bigs in the paint are going to have their work cut out for them on both teams, and slowing Shai Gilgeous-Alexander is no easy feat no matter how well Denver knows him. Denver will need to make threes and slow the Thunder’s ability to score inside, forcing Chet Holmgren and Isaiah Hartenstein into some misses and limiting Thunder rebounds. We’ve been waiting literally all season for this rematch, and while it’s not the full-strength battle everyone wants it’s still a worthy skirmish and a test for both teams.
This is probably the Western Conference Finals if these teams stay healthy and take care of business the rest of the way, so with 4 matchups the rest of the regular season there will be sleight-of-hand and both teams will keep some things close to the vest. But the wins still matter, and the preview of the battle for league supremacy this year starts tonight.
**The thing to bet:** **The line is OKC -7.5 which seems like a lot.** Denver doesn’t really get blown out this year, especially with Joker in the lineup, so if OKC wins it’s likely to be because Denver couldn’t get stops, not because the Nugget offense didn’t show. Take the Nuggets with the points.