ATLANTA, GEORGIA - JANUARY 19: Giannis Antetokounmpo #34 of the Milwaukee Bucks reacts against the Atlanta Hawks during the fourth quarter at State Farm Arena on January 19, 2026 in Atlanta, Georgia. NOTE TO USER: User expressly acknowledges and agrees that, by downloading and or using this photograph, User is consenting to the terms and conditions of the Getty Images License Agreement. (Photo by Kevin C. Cox/Getty Images)
NBA executives are nearly unanimous in the belief that the Giannis Antetokounmpo Show will be ending its Milwaukee residency. The question of when has already been floated, with many saying it’d be wiser to bypass this week’s deadline and make a move in the offseason when the landscape is in better focus.
But a number of teams who spoke to Heavy say the larger issue is just who will be making the decisions for the Bucks when push comes to trade. The final call on anything involving the franchise’s most valuable asset will no doubt be made by ownership, but Jon Horst, general manager since 2017, is currently in charge of negotiating the options.
“After how things have played out the last couple of years, do you let the guys in charge now make that call?” asked one team official. “What they do here is going to affect that franchise for the next five years — really maybe 10 years when you factor in the draft picks that you’re going to have to get back if you trade (Giannis).
“This is going to be a monumental move for a small market franchise.”
Even the more measured opposing execs believe Antetokounmpo will be on the move.
“My guess is they have to trade Giannis,” said one. “Some of the people you talk to there say they’re not, but I really think they will at some point. They have to. I don’t see how they can’t.
“He’s not going to sign an extension, and they’ll end up losing him for nothing in a year if they don’t do something. So if I had to guess, he’d be on the move.”
The Bucks Decline Can Be Traced to the 2023 Damian Lillard Trade
The Bucks, meanwhile, are on the move toward to lower reaches of the Eastern Conference standings. They’ve lost eight of nine, and the last five straight — the latter three by an average of 18.3 points. With Antetokounmpo out indefinitely with a calf issue, the prospects of upward mobility for the 12th seed (18-29) are not promising.
The decline can fairly — and numerically — be traced to the September 27, 2023 move to acquire Damian Lillard from Portland in a three-team trade that included Phoenix. Dealing Jrue Holiday cost the Bucks defensively, but that problem was compounded when Milwaukee didn’t realize that Portland would be looking to move Holiday’s contract and that East rival Boston would be a logical landing spot. Holiday went on to be a critical piece of the Celtics‘ 2024 championship, while Milwaukee went from 58 wins to 49.
“The second they traded Jrue Holiday and Grayson Allen, that was the beginning of the end,” an exec told Heavy. “They f***** that up. Those were two guys that fit Giannis and had no egos. Bad trade.
“And they traded so many draft picks over the years — some rightfully so to get Jrue, and they won a championship with him, but a bunch of them not good.”
The League Is Waiting to See What Happens With Giannis
Draft picks are a major part of the argument for waiting until after the season to trade Antetokounmpo, the reason being the Bucks will know after the lottery where the picks they might acquire will fall. But after winning it all in 2021, the present Milwaukee administration has been unable to surround Giannis with the proper pieces for a greater whole.
“It’s bad up there,” said veteran NBA personnel exec. “They couldn’t get him any help. The question is if they’ll give those guys the rebuild. You look at how they’ve drafted, but mainly the moves they’ve made, and you have to wonder. I mean, the Lillard thing just didn’t work, and they bet so much on it. That’s a hell of a decision. Then they stretch him and pay him out. C’mon, man.
“Everybody in the league is either trying to get in on Giannis or waiting to see what happens so they can decide what they have to do themselves to deal with the fallout of what comes next.”